VST Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Vistra Corp
Utilities • Utilities - Independent Power Producers
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About VST Stock
We analyzed Vistra Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran VST through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
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📈VST Performance Overview3yr weekly
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Weekly adjusted close · Quarterly revenue & EPS · DVR score history
VST Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Vistra's robust financial performance is significantly supported by its hedging strategy (98% hedged 2026, 89% 2027, 65% 2028). A severe and unexpected decoupling of power prices from natural gas costs, or an inability to secure favorable hedges for 2028 and beyond, could significantly erode its Adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG by 15-20% within 12-18 months.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Low current ratio of approximately 0.9 as per Q1 2026 10-Q (using training data) indicates limited short-term liquidity, though offset by substantial revolving credit facilities.
- ⚠
A significant portion of Q1 2026 net income ($723M) derived from unrealized mark-to-market hedge gains, which are non-cash and subject to future realization risks, potentially overstating current operational profitability.
- ⚠
Relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of ~2.08 (from Q1 2026 10-Q via training data) for a utility, which, while common, limits financial flexibility for aggressive, non-organic growth.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Regulatory/Legislative Changes (Ongoing, potential for Q3 2026): Adverse policy shifts in Texas or East Coast markets (e.g., changes to ERCOT market design or new environmental regulations) could suppress capacity prices or increase compliance costs by $50M-$100M annually.
- 📅
Commodity Price Volatility (Ongoing): A significant and prolonged collapse in natural gas or power prices not fully mitigated by existing hedges, potentially impacting the unhedged 2028 volumes (~35%) and reducing FCFbG by 10-15%.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Adjusted FCFbG guidance for the full year 2026 is lowered below $3.5 billion in subsequent earnings reports.
- 🚪
Net income (excluding unrealized hedge gains) declines for two consecutive quarters, signaling a fundamental shift in profitability.
- 🚪
Significant adverse regulatory changes in key markets (e.g., ERCOT in Texas) that result in a sustained 10%+ reduction in Vistra's realized capacity prices.
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What Does Vistra Corp (VST) Do?
Market Cap
$51.86B
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Employees
6,850
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 41,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Visit Vistra Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Vistra continues to execute on its robust operational strategy, maintaining high hedging levels (e.g., 90%+ for 2027 and 75%+ for 2028) and leveraging its efficient scale to opportunistically acquire smaller generation assets (e.g., adding 500MW in new capacity by 2028), then its consistent Adjusted FCFbG (projected $3.925B-$4.725B for 2026) can fuel continued share repurchases and modest dividend growth, driving a 10-15% annual return typical for a stable, high-quality utility. This is bullish for a yield-oriented or value-focused portfolio, as the market often undervalues its long-term cash generation against the backdrop of short-term energy price volatility, though it lacks 10x potential.
Is VST Stock Undervalued?
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VST Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$170.00
Bull Case
$190.00
Bear Case
$130.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 18.89x estimated FY2026 EPS of $9.00 for a stable, growing utility.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $140-$150 range, near recent support levels, particularly if there's a minor market pullback.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $170 and $190. Implement a trailing stop-loss or exit if sustained close below $130.
Portfolio Allocation
3-7% for moderate risk tolerance, suitable for a stable income/growth allocation within a diversified portfolio.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is VST Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.14
Forward P/E
17.19
EV/EBITDA
10.68
PEG Ratio
0.38
Price/Book
16.65
Price/Sales
2.74
Profitability
Gross Margin
8.71%
Operating Margin
19.22%
Net Margin
12.22%
Return on Equity
43.25%
Revenue Growth
15.68%
EPS
$6.52
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.78
Quick Ratio
0.64
Debt/Equity
4.10
Total Debt
$19.93B
Cash & Equivalents
$658.00M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$4.67B
Free Cash Flow
$1.80B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.44
Dividend Yield
0.57%
Does VST Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Vistra benefits from the high barriers to entry inherent in the power generation and retail electricity markets, including immense capital requirements, stringent regulatory hurdles, and the need for sophisticated operational expertise. Its established asset base and customer relationships create a durable, albeit slow-growing, competitive advantage that is difficult for new players to replicate rapidly.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid technological shifts (e.g., breakthroughs in decentralized power generation or grid-scale storage) could diminish the competitive advantage of large-scale, centralized assets.
- •Adverse regulatory changes that favor new entrants or disaggregate existing utility structures could erode Vistra's regional competitive advantages and integrated model.
VST Competitive Moat Analysis
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VST Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Vistra, as a utility, typically does not generate significant social media hype or bearish sentiment, focusing on stability).
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (Analyst consensus is very bullish with 14 Buys and 4 Outperforms among 18 ratings, indicating strong institutional confidence).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Gavin R. Baiera received a compensation-related grant of 1,268 shares ($0.00 value) on June 5, 2026. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, not a Vistra executive, proposed a sale of 4,600 shares ($736,000) on June 2, 2026, and previously sold 5,000 shares ($824,799.40) on May 27, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual institutional options flow data provided in the research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-06 (Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Vistra's stock tends to rally modestly on strong operational beats and positive guidance revisions, while exhibiting downside pressure on misses or reductions in financial outlook.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
CEG
Market Share Trend
Stable (no data indicating significant market share shifts; growth primarily from organic demand and strategic acquisitions like Lotus).
Valuation vs Peers
Vistra's trailing P/E of 24.84 likely trades at a slight premium to some traditional regulated utilities due to its competitive market exposure and growth prospects, but may be in line with or slightly below peers with similar integrated competitive models.
Competitive Advantages
- •Scale and diversified generation assets across key competitive markets (Texas, East, West).
- •Robust and proactive hedging strategy that effectively mitigates commodity price volatility.
- •Integrated business model combining power generation with retail sales, providing operational synergies and customer lock-in.
Market Intelligence
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Earnings Call Report
Latest quarter — transcript highlights, guidance, and DVR overlay
Plain-language summary, key numbers, segment breakdown, and bull/bear signals from the most recent earnings call.
VST Latest Earnings Call Breakdown
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What Could Drive VST Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (August 6, 2026): Confirmation of continued strong Adjusted EBITDA and FCFbG, exceeding consensus EPS estimates of ~$2.01-$2.23.
- •Capacity Auction Results (late Q4 2026, for 2028/2029 delivery): Strong realized capacity prices for East and Texas regions, supporting long-term revenue visibility beyond existing hedges.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •2027 Hedging Progress (Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 earnings calls): Update on increasing 2027 generation volume hedges beyond current ~89%, locking in future revenue and reducing commodity price volatility.
- •New Generation Project Initiation (Q2 2027): Announcement and commencement of a new 100-250MW generation capacity project (e.g., renewables or efficient gas-fired) in a high-demand Vistra region, providing future revenue growth.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Grid Modernization Investments (2028-2029): Strategic capital deployment into grid resilience and high-efficiency generation, potentially leading to 5-7% higher asset utilization rates and a 2% margin improvement in core segments.
- •Further Consolidation in US Power Market (2028-2029): Accretive M&A activity in fragmented regional power markets, leveraging Vistra's scale to add ~10% to existing generation capacity or retail customer base.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for VST?
- ✓
Watch Adjusted FCFbG guidance: monitor for any reduction below $3.9 billion in subsequent earnings reports.
- ✓
Watch hedging levels for 2027 and 2028: ensure generation volumes remain substantially hedged (above 85% and 60% respectively) to manage price risk.
- ✓
Watch Q2 2026 EPS: must meet or exceed consensus estimates of $2.01-$2.23 to maintain positive momentum and analyst sentiment.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with VST
See how Vistra Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vistra Corp VST | $51.9B | 3.7 | 23.1 | $19.4B | 12.2% | 15.7% | |
American Electric Power Company Inc AEP | $71.7B | 0.8 | 20.0 | $21.9B | 16.8% | 11.0% | Compare → |
Constellation Energy Corp CEG | $108.9B | 2.0 | 28.7 | $25.5B | 12.7% | 23.4% | Compare → |
Duke Energy Corp DUK | $99.6B | 1.0 | 20.1 | $7.9B | 15.4% | 6.2% | Compare → |
Nextera Energy Inc NEE | $179.3B | 1.4 | 21.9 | $24.2B | 29.4% | 10.3% | Compare → |
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How Vistra Corp Makes Money
Vistra Corp operates as an integrated retail and wholesale power company in competitive electricity markets across the United States, predominantly in Texas (ERCOT) and the Eastern and Western regions. The company owns a diverse portfolio of power plants, including natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables, to generate electricity. This power is then sold to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its retail brands and also transacted in wholesale markets. Vistra actively manages commodity price volatility through extensive hedging strategies, which aim to secure future revenues and profits.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Vistra Corp (VST)?
As of June 7, 2026, Vistra Corp has a DVR Score of 3.7 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Vistra Corp?
Vistra Corp's market capitalization is approximately $51.9B. The company operates in the Utilities sector within the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry.
What ticker symbol does Vistra Corp use?
VST is the ticker symbol for Vistra Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for VST stock?
Our analysis rates Vistra Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of VST?
Vistra Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.1. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Vistra Corp pay a dividend?
Yes, Vistra Corp pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.57%.
Is Vistra Corp's revenue growing?
Vistra Corp has reported revenue growth of 15.7%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is VST stock profitable?
Vistra Corp has a profit margin of 12.2%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the VST DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Vistra Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 7, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for VST (Vistra Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.