Stock Comparison

DUK vs VST

Duke Energy Corp vs Vistra Corp

Who's the better investment? Let's break it down.

The Verdict

VST takes this one.

VST edges out the competition with a 2.7-point advantage. Not a blowout, but the numbers favor VST.

DUK

Duke Energy Corp

1.0

out of 10

Distressed

Winner

VST

Vistra Corp

3.7

out of 10

Risk Trap

Want to compare any two stocks?

Valuation

DUK

Metric

VST

$99.6B

Market Cap

$51.9B

20.1

P/E Ratio

Lower may indicate better value

23.1

N/A

Forward P/E

17.2

N/A

Price/Book

16.6

N/A

EV/EBITDA

10.7

Profitability & Growth

DUK

Metric

VST

15.4%

Profit Margin

12.2%

46.0%

Gross Margin

8.7%

26.8%

Operating Margin

19.2%

9.7%

Return on Equity

43.3%

2.6%

Return on Assets

5.6%

6.2%

Revenue Growth

15.7%

$6.39

EPS

$6.52

Financial Health

DUK

Metric

VST

1.7

Debt-to-Equity

Lower = less leverage

4.1

0.6

Current Ratio

Above 1.0 is healthy

0.8

0.4

Beta

Lower = less volatile

1.4

3.3%

Dividend Yield

0.6%

Risk Comparison

DUK

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Medium

Market

Low

Competitive

Low

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

High

What Could Go Wrong

Regulatory bodies could reject or significantly reduce Duke Energy's requested rate increases or fuel cost recoveries, directly impacting revenue and profitability. This could lead to a downward revis...

Red Flags

🚩CEO Louis E. Renjel sold 6,800 shares (~23.6% position reduction) in Q4 2025.
🚩SVP Regis T. Repko sold 962 shares (~19.8% reduction) in Q4 2025.
🚩Current and Quick ratios (0.55, 0.33 respectively) indicate low short-term liquidity, typical for ut...

VST

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Medium

Market

Medium

Competitive

Low

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Medium

What Could Go Wrong

Vistra's robust financial performance is significantly supported by its hedging strategy (98% hedged 2026, 89% 2027, 65% 2028). A severe and unexpected decoupling of power prices from natural gas cost...

Red Flags

🚩Low current ratio of approximately 0.9 as per Q1 2026 10-Q (using training data) indicates limited s...
🚩A significant portion of Q1 2026 net income ($723M) derived from unrealized mark-to-market hedge gai...
🚩Relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of ~2.08 (from Q1 2026 10-Q via training data) for a utility, w...

Competitive Moat

DUK

Rating

🛡️ Wide

Trend

➡️ Stable

Efficient ScaleSwitching CostsIntangible Assets (Regulatory Licenses/Franchises)

VST

Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Trend

➡️ Stable

Cost AdvantagesEfficient ScaleIntangible Assets/IP

Investment Thesis

DUK1.0/10

Duke Energy offers investors a stable, income-generating utility play, benefiting from regulated returns on its substantial infrastructure investments and a long-term transition towards cleaner energy sources. While lacking 10x growth potential, it provides defensive portfolio diversification and a reliable dividend stream, making it suitable for conservative, income-focused strategies.

Full DUK Analysis

VST3.7/10

If Vistra continues to execute on its robust operational strategy, maintaining high hedging levels (e.g., 90%+ for 2027 and 75%+ for 2028) and leveraging its efficient scale to opportunistically acquire smaller generation assets (e.g., adding 500MW in new capacity by 2028), then its consistent Adjusted FCFbG (projected $3.925B-$4.725B for 2026) can fuel continued share repurchases and modest divid...

Full VST Analysis

Price Targets & Strategy

Price Targets & Entry/Exit Strategy

Growth Catalysts

Growth Catalysts Comparison

Market Sentiment

Market Sentiment Analysis

The Deep Dive

DUK1.0/10

Duke Energy (DUK) remains a highly regulated utility, fundamentally unsuitable for 10x growth within a 3-5 year timeframe. Its business model, driven by regulatory rate approvals and essential infrastructure investments (like the approved SC natural gas plant and grid modernization efforts), is designed for stable, single-digit returns. While recent Q4 2025 earnings beat estimates and the $2.48B asset sale are positive for a utility, they do not introduce the exponential upside or disruptive pot...

Full DUK Analysis

VST3.7/10

Vistra Corp continues to demonstrate exceptional operational execution and strong financial health for a large-cap integrated utility, as evidenced by its robust Q1 2026 results and reaffirmed 2026 FCFbG guidance of $3.925–$4.725 billion. Management's capital allocation, including share repurchases, and a very bullish analyst sentiment are positive. However, its core business operates within a mature, capital-intensive, and largely regional utility market. These inherent industry characteristics...

Full VST Analysis

Want More Comparisons?

Run any stock through our deep value analyzer.

Analyze Any Stock →View Top 100 →

Not Financial Advice

This comparison is for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisors. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.