DUK Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Duke Energy Corp
Utilities • Utilities - Regulated Electric
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About DUK Stock
We analyzed Duke Energy Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran DUK through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
DUK Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Regulatory bodies could reject or significantly reduce Duke Energy's requested rate increases or fuel cost recoveries, directly impacting revenue and profitability. This could lead to a downward revision of earnings expectations and potentially pressure dividend sustainability, causing investor outflows.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
CEO Louis E. Renjel sold 6,800 shares (~23.6% position reduction) in Q4 2025.
- ⚠
SVP Regis T. Repko sold 962 shares (~19.8% reduction) in Q4 2025.
- ⚠
Current and Quick ratios (0.55, 0.33 respectively) indicate low short-term liquidity, typical for utilities but a flag for high-growth firms.
- ⚠
The stock significantly trails the S&P 500 (6.2% vs. 30.1% 52-week).
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Adverse regulatory decisions on rate cases or fuel cost recovery
- 📅
Higher than expected interest rates increasing borrowing costs
- 📅
Extreme weather events increasing operational costs
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if regulatory bodies deny major rate increase requests, negatively impacting long-term EPS guidance.
- 🚪
Sell if the dividend is cut or dividend growth significantly slows due to financial pressures.
- 🚪
Exit if interest rates rise sharply and persistently, increasing DUK's debt servicing costs significantly.
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What Does Duke Energy Corp (DUK) Do?
Market Cap
$99.64B
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Utilities - Regulated Electric
Employees
26,413
Duke Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I); and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to approximately 8.6 million customers in the Southeast and Midwest regions. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving entities. The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to approximately 1.7 million customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas sectors; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Visit Duke Energy Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Duke Energy offers investors a stable, income-generating utility play, benefiting from regulated returns on its substantial infrastructure investments and a long-term transition towards cleaner energy sources. While lacking 10x growth potential, it provides defensive portfolio diversification and a reliable dividend stream, making it suitable for conservative, income-focused strategies.
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DUK Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$139.56
Bull Case
$145.00
Bear Case
$118.00
Valuation Basis
Based on analyst median P/E multiple (~19.17x) applied to estimated FY26 EPS (~$7.28, assuming ~3.4% YoY growth from Q1 estimate).
Entry Strategy
For long-term income investors, consider dollar-cost averaging on dips below $125.00, leveraging its defensive characteristics. For 10x growth investors, DUK is not an appropriate entry.
Exit Strategy
Take profit above $140.00 in line with analyst targets. Implement a stop-loss order if regulatory changes significantly impact profitability or if the dividend payout ratio becomes unsustainable.
Portfolio Allocation
0% for high-risk, high-reward (10x potential) portfolios; up to 3% for conservative income-focused portfolios.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is DUK Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.06
Profitability
Gross Margin
45.97%
Operating Margin
26.76%
Net Margin
15.41%
Return on Equity
9.70%
Revenue Growth
6.19%
EPS
$6.39
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.55
Quick Ratio
0.33
Debt/Equity
1.73
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.41
Dividend Yield
3.31%
Does DUK Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Duke Energy's moat is exceptionally durable due to its status as a regulated utility, granting it near-monopoly power in its service territories. The high capital investment required for infrastructure, coupled with regulatory barriers to entry and the essential nature of its services, makes its competitive position secure for decades.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Significant shifts in regulatory policy towards full deregulation of energy markets
- •Rapid, widespread adoption of decentralized renewable energy systems that bypass the grid (e.g., rooftop solar + storage)
- •Major environmental liabilities or infrastructure failures not covered by rate recovery
DUK Competitive Moat Analysis
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DUK Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral/Positive. High institutional ownership (65.31%) and BMO Capital raising PT to $143 from $136, but overall analyst consensus is 'Moderate Buy' with limited upside.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CEO Louis E. Renjel sold 6,800 shares (reducing position by ~23.6%); SVP Regis T. Repko sold 962 shares (reducing position by ~19.8%) during Q4 2025.
Options Flow
Normal options activity.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-05 (Q1 2026, expected)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Typically reacts predictably to earnings, with modest movements unless there is a significant surprise in regulatory outcomes or guidance; tends to be stable.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
NextEra Energy (NEE)
Market Share Trend
Stable within its regulated geographical territories.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading within the typical range for large-cap utilities based on P/E (20.36 trailing).
Competitive Advantages
- •Regulated geographic monopolies on electricity and gas distribution
- •Significant scale and entrenched infrastructure
- •Essential service provider, ensuring consistent demand
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive DUK Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings report (expected May 5, 2026)
- •NCUC decision on $809M fuel cost recovery and proposed June 1 rate hikes
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Construction start for 1,365 MW natural gas plant in SC (summer 2027)
- •Continued execution of grid modernization and renewable energy investments
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Long-term integration of renewable energy sources into the grid
- •Stable dividend growth attracting income-focused investors
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for DUK?
- ✓
Consistent regulatory approval of capital expenditures and rate base growth
- ✓
Maintained or increasing dividend payout year-over-year
- ✓
Successful execution of grid modernization and renewable deployment targets
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with DUK
See how Duke Energy Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duke Energy Corp DUK | $99.6B | 1.0 | 20.1 | $7.9B | 15.4% | 6.2% | |
American Electric Power Company Inc AEP | $63.2B | 0.5 | 17.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Nextera Energy Inc NEE | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Duke Energy Corp Makes Money
Duke Energy generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 8.2 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across six states in the Southeast and Midwest US. It also operates a natural gas distribution business in certain areas and a portfolio of commercial renewable energy projects. The company primarily makes money by charging customers for electricity and natural gas based on rates approved by state regulatory commissions, which are designed to allow Duke Energy to recover its operating costs and earn a regulated return on its infrastructure investments.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Duke Energy Corp (DUK)?
As of April 19, 2026, Duke Energy Corp has a DVR Score of 1.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Duke Energy Corp?
Duke Energy Corp's market capitalization is approximately $99.6B. The company operates in the Utilities sector within the Utilities - Regulated Electric industry.
What ticker symbol does Duke Energy Corp use?
DUK is the ticker symbol for Duke Energy Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for DUK stock?
Our analysis rates Duke Energy Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of DUK?
Duke Energy Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.1. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Duke Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Yes, Duke Energy Corp pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.31%.
Is Duke Energy Corp's revenue growing?
Duke Energy Corp has reported revenue growth of 6.2%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is DUK stock profitable?
Duke Energy Corp has a profit margin of 15.4%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the DUK DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Duke Energy Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 19, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for DUK (Duke Energy Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.