Stock Comparison

NEE vs VST

Nextera Energy Inc vs Vistra Corp

Who's the better investment? Let's break it down.

The Verdict

VST takes this one.

VST edges out the competition with a 2.3-point advantage. Not a blowout, but the numbers favor VST.

NEE

Nextera Energy Inc

1.4

out of 10

Distressed
Winner
VST

Vistra Corp

3.7

out of 10

Risk Trap

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Valuation

NEE

Metric

VST

$179.3B

Market Cap

$51.9B
21.9

P/E Ratio

Lower may indicate better value

23.1
4.0

Forward P/E

17.2
1.9

Price/Book

16.6
13.2

EV/EBITDA

10.7

Profitability & Growth

NEE

Metric

VST

29.4%

Profit Margin

12.2%
49.0%

Gross Margin

8.7%
29.5%

Operating Margin

19.2%
15.2%

Return on Equity

43.3%
3.9%

Return on Assets

5.6%
10.3%

Revenue Growth

15.7%
$3.94

EPS

$6.52

Financial Health

NEE

Metric

VST

1.8

Debt-to-Equity

Lower = less leverage

4.1
0.6

Current Ratio

Above 1.0 is healthy

0.8
0.7

Beta

Lower = less volatile

1.4
2.9%

Dividend Yield

0.6%

Risk Comparison

NEE

Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High

What Could Go Wrong

The biggest risk is adverse regulatory decisions, particularly for FPL's future rate cases in Florida. If rate increases or allowed returns are significantly lower than anticipated, it could constrain...

Red Flags

  • 🚩Capital-intensive business model: Requires significant debt and continuous equity issuance, leading ...
  • 🚩Large market capitalization ($179.32B): Achieving a 10x return (to $1.79T) for a regulated utility i...
  • 🚩Regulatory dependence: A substantial portion of earnings growth relies on favorable decisions from s...

VST

Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium

What Could Go Wrong

Vistra's robust financial performance is significantly supported by its hedging strategy (98% hedged 2026, 89% 2027, 65% 2028). A severe and unexpected decoupling of power prices from natural gas cost...

Red Flags

  • 🚩Low current ratio of approximately 0.9 as per Q1 2026 10-Q (using training data) indicates limited s...
  • 🚩A significant portion of Q1 2026 net income ($723M) derived from unrealized mark-to-market hedge gai...
  • 🚩Relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of ~2.08 (from Q1 2026 10-Q via training data) for a utility, w...

Competitive Moat

NEE

Rating

🛡️ Wide

Trend

➡️ Stable

Efficient ScaleIntangible Assets (Regulatory Licenses, Permits)Cost Advantages

VST

Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Trend

➡️ Stable

Cost AdvantagesEfficient ScaleIntangible Assets/IP

Investment Thesis

NEE1.4/10

If NextEra Energy Resources continues to expand its renewable energy generation capacity by 30-40 GW through 2029 as planned, while FPL benefits from constructive regulatory environments supporting grid modernization investments (e.g., $10 billion in grid upgrades), then NEE can consistently achieve its targeted 8-10% annual EPS growth, sustaining its premium valuation as a leading green utility. ...

Full NEE Analysis
VST3.7/10

If Vistra continues to execute on its robust operational strategy, maintaining high hedging levels (e.g., 90%+ for 2027 and 75%+ for 2028) and leveraging its efficient scale to opportunistically acquire smaller generation assets (e.g., adding 500MW in new capacity by 2028), then its consistent Adjusted FCFbG (projected $3.925B-$4.725B for 2026) can fuel continued share repurchases and modest divid...

Full VST Analysis

Price Targets & Strategy

Price Targets & Entry/Exit Strategy

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Growth Catalysts

Growth Catalysts Comparison

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Market Sentiment

Market Sentiment Analysis

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The Deep Dive

NEE1.4/10

NextEra Energy (NEE) maintains strong operational performance and leadership in the renewable energy sector, as evidenced by its Q1 2026 EPS beat and ~10.1% YoY EPS growth. Its regulated utility (FPL) offers stability, and NextEra Energy Resources drives growth in clean energy. However, as a colossal, capital-intensive regulated utility with a market cap of $179.32B, NEE's inherent business model and scale fundamentally restrict its potential for the exponential 10x growth targeted within a 3-5 ...

Full NEE Analysis
VST3.7/10

Vistra Corp continues to demonstrate exceptional operational execution and strong financial health for a large-cap integrated utility, as evidenced by its robust Q1 2026 results and reaffirmed 2026 FCFbG guidance of $3.925–$4.725 billion. Management's capital allocation, including share repurchases, and a very bullish analyst sentiment are positive. However, its core business operates within a mature, capital-intensive, and largely regional utility market. These inherent industry characteristics...

Full VST Analysis

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Not Financial Advice

This comparison is for educational purposes only. We are not financial advisors. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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