NTR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Nutrien Ltd
Basic Materials • Agricultural Inputs
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NTR Stock
We analyzed Nutrien Ltd using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NTR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
NTR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk is a sustained downturn in global commodity prices, particularly for potash, which could significantly depress revenues and profit margins, making it challenging to service debt and maintain shareholder returns despite its generally healthy balance sheet. Furthermore, the increase in short-term debt adds to interest expense sensitivity.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q4 2025 earnings (revenue and EPS) missed analyst estimates.
- ⚠
Short-term debt increased by $2.2B from Dec 31, 2025, to Mar 31, 2026.
- ⚠
Quick ratio of 0.58 is relatively low, indicating limited liquidity beyond inventory.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Unfavorable potash pricing trends impacting segment profitability
- 📅
Global economic slowdown affecting agricultural demand and commodity prices
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth turns consistently negative YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if net debt-to-EBITDA (current Debt/FCF is 5.60) significantly deteriorates above 6.0.
- 🚪
Exit if potash prices experience a sustained 20%+ decline impacting profitability guidance.
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What Does Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Do?
Market Cap
$24.00B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Employees
25,500
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The company operates through four segments: Nutrien Ag Solutions, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. The Nutrien Ag Solutions segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products; product application, soil and leaf testing, crop scouting, precision agriculture, water, and brokerage agency services; and financing solutions. The Potash segment provides granular and standard potash products. The Nitrogen segment offers ammonia, urea, environmentally smart nitrogen, nitrogen solutions, nitrates, and sulfates. The Phosphate segment provides solid fertilizer, liquid fertilizer, and industrial and feed products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.
Visit Nutrien Ltd WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Nutrien represents a stable, income-generating investment within the essential agricultural sector. Its strong market position, diversified asset base, and integrated retail network provide resilience against market volatility. While it lacks 10x growth potential, its focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, coupled with its foundational role in global food production, makes it a reliable long-term holding for portfolio stability and moderate capital appreciation.
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NTR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$96.00
Bull Case
$105.00
Bear Case
$65.00
Valuation Basis
Based on a 17.0x forward P/E applied to an estimated FY26 EPS of $5.65, aligning with optimistic analyst targets.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $70-$75, considering recent price volatility and general market stability for large-cap industrials.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $95, re-evaluate above $100. Stop loss at $68 if fundamental outlook deteriorates or market conditions shift negatively.
Portfolio Allocation
3% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting its stability and income generation rather than growth potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is NTR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
52.50
Forward P/E
12.50
EV/EBITDA
5.50
PEG Ratio
0.32
Price/Book
0.90
Price/Sales
0.80
Profitability
Gross Margin
25.00%
Operating Margin
10.00%
Net Margin
6.00%
Return on Equity
5.00%
Revenue Growth
3.20%
EPS
$2.00
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.50
Quick Ratio
0.90
Debt/Equity
0.60
Total Debt
$9.00B
Cash & Equivalents
$1.50B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$3.00B
Free Cash Flow
$1.00B
EBITDA
$3.50B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.90
Dividend Yield
4.00%
Does NTR Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Nutrien's moat is durable due to the high capital intensity required for large-scale fertilizer production, particularly potash mines, and its integrated retail network which provides strong customer lock-in and distribution efficiencies that are costly and time-consuming for competitors to replicate.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Persistent downturn in global commodity prices for agricultural inputs
- •Technological advancements that drastically reduce the need for traditional fertilizers
- •Significant geopolitical shifts impacting trade routes or supply chains for key inputs.
NTR Competitive Moat Analysis
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NTR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, typical for a large-cap industrial stock without significant disruptive innovation.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral, indicated by a 'Hold' average from analysts (10 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell) and mixed target adjustments (Jefferies upgrade to $96, UBS downgrade to $67).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 filings or insider buys/sells reported in the last 90 days (Jan 8 - Apr 8, 2026). No executive or large shareholder activity in the last year.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, with no specific unusual or high-volume positioning indicating a strong directional bias.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Past earnings reports have shown moderate stock price reactions, with strong results often leading to modest gains and misses typically resulting in slight pullbacks, reflecting its stable operational nature.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Mosaic (MOS)
Market Share Trend
Stable, maintaining its leadership position through its diverse asset base and extensive retail network, despite ongoing commodity price fluctuations.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a P/E (16.22-16.46) that is generally in line with or slightly above the average for established agricultural input producers, reflecting its market leadership and integrated model.
Competitive Advantages
- •Vast, geographically diverse production assets (potash, nitrogen, phosphate)
- •Extensive global retail distribution network (2,000+ sites)
- •Significant scale providing cost efficiencies and purchasing power
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive NTR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report on May 6, 2026
- •Ongoing share buyback program (expanded to 5% of shares)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Continued optimization of retail network for efficiency and market reach
- •Potential stabilization or recovery in potash pricing environment
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Increased global food demand driving steady agricultural input consumption
- •Strategic M&A facilitated by the $5B shelf prospectus
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for NTR?
- ✓
Consistent positive trends in retail segment sales and margins, indicating strong customer engagement.
- ✓
Stabilization or upward movement in global potash and nitrogen prices.
- ✓
Effective management of the increased short-term debt and overall debt load relative to cash flow.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with NTR
See how Nutrien Ltd compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nutrien Ltd NTR | $24.0B | 0.1 | 52.5 | $14.0B | 6.0% | 3.2% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.0B | 0.9 | 39.9 | $26.4B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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How Nutrien Ltd Makes Money
Nutrien is the world's largest provider of crop inputs and services, playing a critical role in supporting global food production. The company mines and produces essential crop nutrients like potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, which it then sells directly to farmers through its vast retail network, as well as to industrial customers. It also offers a range of agronomic services and other agricultural products, enabling farmers to enhance crop yields and operational efficiency.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Nutrien Ltd (NTR)?
As of April 8, 2026, Nutrien Ltd has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Nutrien Ltd?
Nutrien Ltd's market capitalization is approximately $24.0B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Agricultural Inputs industry.
What ticker symbol does Nutrien Ltd use?
NTR is the ticker symbol for Nutrien Ltd. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for NTR stock?
Our analysis rates Nutrien Ltd's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NTR?
Nutrien Ltd currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52.5. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Nutrien Ltd pay a dividend?
Yes, Nutrien Ltd pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 4.00%.
Is Nutrien Ltd's revenue growing?
Nutrien Ltd has reported revenue growth of 3.2%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is NTR stock profitable?
Nutrien Ltd has a profit margin of 6.0%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the NTR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Nutrien Ltd is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 8, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NTR (Nutrien Ltd) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.