NEM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Newmont Corporation
Basic Materials • Gold
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NEM Stock
We analyzed Newmont Corporation using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NEM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
NEM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk for Newmont is a substantial and sustained decline in commodity prices, particularly gold and copper. Given its capital-intensive nature, even with strong operational performance, lower commodity prices could significantly impact revenues, profitability, and free cash flow, affecting shareholder returns and investment viability.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Valuation metrics (P/E 17.14x, P/S 3.7x) generally above sector medians, suggesting limited upside potential relative to current fundamentals.
- ⚠
Dependence on volatile global commodity prices for revenue growth rather than internal disruptive innovation.
- ⚠
Inherently capital-intensive business model limits exponential scalability for 10x growth potential.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Significant decline in gold or copper prices
- 📅
Operational disruptions or geopolitical issues in mining regions
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly free cash flow turns negative for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if gold prices drop below critical support levels ($2,000/oz sustained for a quarter) without a clear recovery path.
- 🚪
Exit if the dividend payout ratio becomes unsustainable or dividends are cut.
Unlock NEM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Newmont Corporation (NEM) Do?
Market Cap
$130.00B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Gold
Employees
22,200
Newmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold properties. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, lead, and other metals. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ecuador, Fiji, and Ghana, and internationally. Newmont Corporation was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Visit Newmont Corporation WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Newmont Corporation is a highly stable, dividend-paying leader in the global gold and copper mining sector. Its strong financial performance (record FCF in 2025), robust balance sheet, and commitment to shareholder returns (buybacks, raised dividends) make it an attractive investment for commodity exposure, income, and moderate capital appreciation, particularly in an environment of sustained high metal prices. It is a 'buy and hold' for stability and yield, not for 10x growth.
Is NEM Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for NEM
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
NEM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$123.90
Bull Case
$135.00
Bear Case
$105.00
Valuation Basis
Based on Goldman Sachs' updated target price of $123.90 (January 12, 2026), reflecting a 'buy' rating and modest upside for a stable, mature company.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips below $115.00 to capitalize on yield and long-term commodity exposure, given limited capital appreciation upside.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking profits above $125.00; set a trailing stop-loss below $108.00 to protect against significant commodity price downturns or operational setbacks.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, primarily for diversification into commodities and dividend income, not growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is NEM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.40
Forward P/E
12.00
EV/EBITDA
5.17
PEG Ratio
1.29
Price/Book
2.19
Price/Sales
5.21
Profitability
Gross Margin
58.00%
Operating Margin
58.00%
Net Margin
31.70%
Return on Equity
45.00%
Revenue Growth
21.00%
EPS
$6.78
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.80
Quick Ratio
1.50
Debt/Equity
0.15
Total Debt
$2.50B
Cash & Equivalents
$16.70B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$9.10B
Free Cash Flow
$7.30B
EBITDA
$13.15B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.25
Dividend Yield
1.80%
Does NEM Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Newmont's moat is durable due to its unparalleled scale as the world's largest gold miner, owning and operating a portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets. The capital intensity and regulatory hurdles of opening new mines create significant barriers to entry, making its dominant position difficult to challenge.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Geopolitical risks and resource nationalism in operating countries
- •Rising input costs (energy, labor) eroding cost advantages
NEM Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
NEM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, typically reflecting a dividend and commodity play rather than a growth story, with sentiment largely tied to metal prices.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with Goldman Sachs raising target and maintaining 'buy' rating, and institutional increases by Clough Capital, Brighton Jones, and Woodline Partners.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings for individual insiders (e.g., CEO/CFO) reported in the last 90 days. Institutional activity included Clough Capital Partners L P purchasing 26,233 shares in Q3 (filed March 15, 2026).
Options Flow
Normal options activity, with no specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades reported in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-23
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Newmont, as a mature company, typically sees stock reactions influenced by production guidance, cost control, and commodity price outlook rather than significant surprises in reported financials, though strong cash flow has recently supported shareholder returns.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)
Market Share Trend
Stable to Gaining (with Newcrest acquisition solidifying its position as the world's largest gold miner), targeting 6 million ounces annual gold production by 2028.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium on P/E (17.14x vs sector 11.6x) and P/S (3.7x vs sector 2.4x), indicating a market recognition of its leadership but potentially less upside for multiple expansion.
Competitive Advantages
- •World's largest gold producer with superior scale and diverse asset base
- •Long-life, low-cost mines in favorable jurisdictions
- •Strong balance sheet and cash flow generation
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive NEM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings on April 23, 2026
- •Continued execution of $3 billion share repurchase program
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Gold production growth towards 6 million ounces annually by 2028 target
- •Potential further debt reduction with sustained strong cash flows
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained high gold and copper prices due to global economic factors
- •Geopolitical stability in key mining regions
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for NEM?
- ✓
Sustained growth in free cash flow per share
- ✓
Successful execution of the 6 million ounce annual gold production target by 2028
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with NEM
See how Newmont Corporation compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.0B | 0.9 | 39.9 | $26.4B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Newmont Corporation Makes Money
Newmont Corporation is the world's leading gold mining company, primarily making money by extracting gold and, to a lesser extent, copper from its global portfolio of mines. It explores for new deposits, develops and operates large-scale mines, and then processes the ore to produce refined metals which are sold on the global commodity markets. Its vast asset base, efficient operations, and strong financial management allow it to generate substantial cash flow from the sale of these precious and base metals.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Newmont Corporation (NEM)?
As of April 10, 2026, Newmont Corporation has a DVR Score of 1.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Newmont Corporation?
Newmont Corporation's market capitalization is approximately $130.0B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Gold industry.
What ticker symbol does Newmont Corporation use?
NEM is the ticker symbol for Newmont Corporation. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for NEM stock?
Our analysis rates Newmont Corporation's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NEM?
Newmont Corporation currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Newmont Corporation pay a dividend?
Yes, Newmont Corporation pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.80%.
Is Newmont Corporation's revenue growing?
Newmont Corporation has reported revenue growth of 21.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is NEM stock profitable?
Newmont Corporation has a profit margin of 31.7%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the NEM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Newmont Corporation is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 10, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NEM (Newmont Corporation) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.