FCX Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan Inc
Basic Materials • Copper
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About FCX Stock
We analyzed Freeport-McMoRan Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran FCX through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
FCX Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is the confluence of sustained weakness in global copper prices and persistent operational delays at the Grasberg Block Cave. Such a scenario would significantly impact FCX's revenue, profitability, and cash flow projections, leading to underperformance and potential re-rating to the downside.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Significant insider selling in Q1 2026 (~$35.84M by CEO/CFO) signals potential lack of extraordinary conviction from leadership.
- ⚠
Downward revision of 2026 copper and gold production guidance due to Grasberg delays highlights execution challenges.
- ⚠
Capacity expansions from competitors (Kamoa-Kakula, Oyu Tolgoi) could ease copper supply tightness, potentially capping price upside.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Further material delays in Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up
- 📅
Significant downturn in global copper prices due to oversupply or demand shock
- 📅
Adverse regulatory or geopolitical developments in key operating regions
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if sustained copper prices drop below $4.50/lb, impacting profitability significantly.
- 🚪
Sell if there are further material delays at Grasberg impacting 2027+ guidance, or if net debt begins to rise materially.
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly operating cash flow turns negative for two consecutive quarters.
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What Does Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) Do?
Market Cap
$88.33B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Copper
Employees
28,500
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals. The company's assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Visit Freeport-McMoRan Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Freeport-McMoRan is a leading supplier of copper, critically positioned to benefit from the accelerating global energy transition. Its world-class, low-cost assets, improving operational efficiency, and disciplined capital allocation make it a robust investment for long-term exposure to essential minerals, offering solid returns rather than exponential 10x growth.
Is FCX Stock Undervalued?
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FCX Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$70.00
Bull Case
$77.00
Bear Case
$54.00
Valuation Basis
Based on a 16x forward P/E multiple applied to estimated FY2026 EPS of $4.38 (TIKR consensus from training data) and median analyst price targets.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on dips towards current support levels ($58-$60) or on confirmed breakouts above resistance.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $75, consider full exit at $77. Stop-loss at $55 if operational or commodity price concerns deepen.
Portfolio Allocation
3-7% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting its stable large-cap nature and commodity exposure.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is FCX Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
40.08
Forward P/E
24.07
EV/EBITDA
14.20
PEG Ratio
0.75
Price/Book
2.30
Price/Sales
13.95
Profitability
Gross Margin
25.45%
Operating Margin
22.29%
Net Margin
7.81%
Return on Equity
12.00%
Revenue Growth
-27.98%
EPS
$1.53
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.29
Quick Ratio
1.05
Debt/Equity
0.50
Total Debt
$9.41B
Cash & Equivalents
$3.74B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$5.98B
Free Cash Flow
$1.10B
EBITDA
$2.47B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.35
Dividend Yield
0.99%
Does FCX Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is durable due to the scarcity of high-grade, long-life copper deposits like Grasberg, coupled with the immense capital and technical expertise required for their development and operation. This creates significant barriers to entry and sustainable cost advantages.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Geopolitical instability or increased resource nationalism in operating regions
- •Significant and sustained declines in global copper prices
- •Rising environmental compliance costs or labor disputes
FCX Competitive Moat Analysis
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FCX Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish, generally reactive to copper price movements and broader market sentiment for commodities.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with several 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings from major analysts and reported increase in institutional stake in Q4 2025 by International Assets Investment Management LLC.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CFO Maree Robertson sold 48,500 shares (~$2.99M) in Q1 2026. Chairman/CEO Richard C. Adkerson sold 248,031 shares at $62.80/share (~$15.58M) on Feb 10, 2026. Total insider sales over last 90 days: 565,145 shares (~$35.84M). No insider buys reported.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific data indicates unusual institutional positioning beyond standard hedging or speculative plays.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Expected July 23-29, 2026
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
The stock is highly sensitive to commodity price movements and operational updates. While Q1 results beat estimates, the stock saw a slight dip (-0.70%) due to the revised lower guidance, indicating that forward-looking news can sometimes outweigh headline beats.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Market Share Trend
Stable. FCX is a top-tier global copper producer; growth is driven by optimizing existing world-class assets and strategic expansions, not disruptive market share capture.
Valuation vs Peers
FCX generally trades at a competitive valuation relative to its large-cap diversified mining peers, often benefiting from its pure-play copper exposure. Its strong balance sheet and cash flow support its valuation.
Competitive Advantages
- •World-class, long-life, low-cost copper and gold assets (e.g., Grasberg)
- •Deep operational expertise in complex mining environments
- •Established governmental relationships and resource rights security (e.g., Indonesia MOU)
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive FCX Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (Expected July 23-29, 2026)
- •Continued strength or further increases in global copper prices
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Successful phased ramp-up of Grasberg Block Cave (full capacity by mid-2027)
- •Progress on MOU for life-of-resource rights extension in Indonesia
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Accelerating global electrification and energy transition driving sustained copper demand
- •Strategic expansions or new discoveries leveraging existing infrastructure
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for FCX?
- ✓
Sustained strong copper prices and demand growth.
- ✓
Successful and on-schedule ramp-up of Grasberg Block Cave operations.
- ✓
Continued strong free cash flow generation and disciplined capital returns to shareholders.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with FCX
See how Freeport-McMoRan Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.3B | 0.6 | 40.1 | $24.9B | 7.8% | -28.0% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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How Freeport-McMoRan Inc Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan is a major international mining company that specializes in extracting and producing copper, gold, and molybdenum. It generates revenue by mining these valuable metals from its large, long-life mineral deposits located primarily in North America, South America, and Indonesia, and then selling them on global commodity markets. Its customers are primarily industrial users, manufacturers, and commodity traders who rely on these raw materials for a wide range of products, from electrical infrastructure and automotive components to specialized alloys.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)?
As of May 9, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc has a DVR Score of 0.6 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Freeport-McMoRan Inc?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc's market capitalization is approximately $88.3B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Copper industry.
What ticker symbol does Freeport-McMoRan Inc use?
FCX is the ticker symbol for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for FCX stock?
Our analysis rates Freeport-McMoRan Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of FCX?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40.1. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Freeport-McMoRan Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Freeport-McMoRan Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.99%.
Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc's revenue growing?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc has reported revenue growth of -28.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is FCX stock profitable?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc has a profit margin of 7.8%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the FCX DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Freeport-McMoRan Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 9, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.