LYB Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
LyondellBasell Industries NV
Basic Materials • Specialty Chemicals
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About LYB Stock
We analyzed LyondellBasell Industries NV using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran LYB through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
LYB Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Persistent global oversupply, particularly from Asia, could continue to depress commodity chemical prices, preventing LYB from returning to profitability and further reducing its EBITDA, leading to continued dividend cuts or even asset impairments.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
High
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
2025 full-year net loss of $(738) million, indicating significant operational headwinds.
- ⚠
Significant quarterly dividend cut from $1.25 to $0.69/share, signaling financial pressure or a major strategic shift.
- ⚠
BofA downgrade to Underperform with a reduced price target ($55 from $68) due to oversupply concerns.
- ⚠
Insider selling ($9.1M) significantly outweighs purchases ($0.65M) over the last 24 months, including by the CEO.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or weak forward guidance due to persistent oversupply
- 📅
Further deterioration of global macroeconomic conditions affecting demand
- 📅
Increased geopolitical instability impacting energy prices or supply chains
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Quarterly net losses persist for another 2-3 quarters, showing no clear path to recovery.
- 🚪
EBITDA margin falls consistently below 5% for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Stock price consistently falls below $50, breaking key support levels and indicating further downside.
Unlock LYB Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Do?
Market Cap
$22.51B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Specialty Chemicals
Employees
20,000
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates in six segments: Olefins and PolyolefinsAmericas; Olefins and PolyolefinsEurope, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; Refining; and Technology. It produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; and polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; and propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer, acetyls, and ethylene oxide. The company also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors and powders, and advanced polymers, such as catalloy and polybutene-1; and refines heavy, high-sulfur crude oil and other crude oils, as well as refined products, including gasoline and distillates. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts; and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Visit LyondellBasell Industries NV WebsiteInvestment Thesis
LyondellBasell is a mature chemical producer currently facing significant cyclical headwinds (oversupply, demand weakness) resulting in a net loss and dividend cut. While management is attempting strategic pivots (recycling capex), these are evolutionary and unlikely to unlock 10x growth. It's best approached as a deeply cyclical value play for potential recovery, not a growth stock.
Is LYB Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for LYB
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
LYB Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$60.00
Bull Case
$75.00
Bear Case
$50.00
Valuation Basis
Based on a blended average of analyst targets (post BofA downgrade) and a conservative 8.0x EV/EBITDA on cyclically depressed 2025 EBITDA (ex-items), assuming estimated net debt of ~$11.5B.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $55-$60, watching for stabilization in commodity chemical prices and improved macro outlook.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $75; set a stop-loss at $50 if fundamental conditions worsen or macro environment deteriorates further.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for a moderate risk tolerance, only as a deep value/cyclical recovery play.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is LYB Financially Healthy?
Profitability
Gross Margin
8.55%
Operating Margin
-1.41%
Net Margin
-2.45%
Return on Equity
-6.59%
Revenue Growth
-25.18%
EPS
$-2.30
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.77
Quick Ratio
1.18
Debt/Equity
1.28
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.34
Dividend Yield
3.95%
Does LYB Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Eroding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat persists due to the high capital intensity and vast scale required for operations, creating barriers to entry. However, it is eroding due to intensifying global competition, particularly from lower-cost producers, leading to commoditization and pricing pressures.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Sustained global oversupply leading to persistent price compression.
- •New low-cost production capacity coming online in regions with feedstock advantages.
- •Technological advancements by competitors that improve cost efficiency or product differentiation.
LYB Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
LYB Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Low interest for 10x growth, focus is likely on dividend/value if any)
Institutional Sentiment
Negative (BofA downgrade to Underperform, price target cut on oversupply concerns)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Sales totaled 100,853 shares ($9,148,666.53) over the last 24 months, with purchases totaling 8,750 shares ($650,487.50). CEO Peter Z.E. Vanacker sold $1,071,400. This indicates significant net selling.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity data available in research)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-01
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock price likely reacts significantly to forward guidance, especially concerning commodity prices and macro demand, given the cyclical nature.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Dow Chemical (DOW) (based on general industry knowledge)
Market Share Trend
Stable, but facing intense pressure from global overcapacity in commoditized segments.
Valuation vs Peers
Mixed, likely trading at a discount on a price-to-earnings basis due to the net loss, but potentially a premium on EV/EBITDA compared to current profitability during this cyclical downturn.
Competitive Advantages
- •Global scale and integrated production facilities
- •Diversified product portfolio across key chemical categories
- •Operational efficiency and established customer relationships
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive LYB Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Release on May 1, 2026
- •Updates on recycling capex project execution and timelines
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Potential stabilization or recovery in global industrial demand in late 2026/early 2027
- •Impact of approved share repurchase program (up to 10%) on EPS
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Significant advancements or market adoption in circular economy solutions
- •Consolidation in the chemical industry leading to reduced oversupply
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for LYB?
- ✓
Significant acceleration in global manufacturing PMI indicating improved industrial demand.
- ✓
Evidence of industry consolidation or rationalization of overcapacity.
- ✓
Consistent improvement in EBITDA margins and return to sustainable net profitability.
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with LYB
See how LyondellBasell Industries NV compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LyondellBasell Industries NV LYB | $22.5B | 0.1 | — | — | -2.5% | -25.2% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.0B | 0.9 | 39.9 | $26.4B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How LyondellBasell Industries NV Makes Money
LyondellBasell operates as a global producer of plastics, chemicals, and refining products. It manufactures and markets a wide range of polymers, including polyolefins, and various intermediate chemicals, such as propylene oxide and aromatics, which are essential building blocks for countless industrial and consumer goods. Its customers are primarily other industrial manufacturers who use these materials to produce everything from packaging and automotive parts to construction materials and textiles. The business model relies on large-scale, integrated production to achieve cost efficiencies, but it is highly sensitive to raw material costs (e.g., crude oil, natural gas) and end-market demand.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
As of April 27, 2026, LyondellBasell Industries NV has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of LyondellBasell Industries NV?
LyondellBasell Industries NV's market capitalization is approximately $22.5B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Specialty Chemicals industry.
What ticker symbol does LyondellBasell Industries NV use?
LYB is the ticker symbol for LyondellBasell Industries NV. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for LYB stock?
Our analysis rates LyondellBasell Industries NV's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
Does LyondellBasell Industries NV pay a dividend?
Yes, LyondellBasell Industries NV pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.95%.
Is LyondellBasell Industries NV's revenue growing?
LyondellBasell Industries NV has reported revenue growth of -25.2%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is LYB stock profitable?
LyondellBasell Industries NV has a profit margin of -2.5%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the LYB DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of LyondellBasell Industries NV is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 27, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for LYB (LyondellBasell Industries NV) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.