CLF Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Basic Materials • Steel
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CLF Stock
We analyzed Cleveland-Cliffs Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CLF through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
CLF Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The complete absence of recent financial reporting (Q4 2025, Q1 2026) is a critical concern. Without visibility into revenue, earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet metrics, investors cannot properly assess the company's performance, health, or ability to manage debt, significantly increasing investment risk. This opacity could lead to a lack of institutional interest and further stock price decline.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
No Q4 2025, Q1 2026, or later financial reports (10-Q/K, earnings wires) available.
- ⚠
Absence of recent Form 4 filings for insider activity.
- ⚠
Operating in a mature, capital-intensive, and cyclical industry with limited hyper-growth prospects.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Prolonged absence of financial reporting (Q4 2025/Q1 2026).
- 📅
Significant downturn in global or North American industrial production and steel demand.
- 📅
Persistent volatility in commodity prices (iron ore, coking coal).
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Sustained period of no financial reporting beyond current expectations.
- 🚪
Significant and unexpected decline in steel demand or prices.
- 🚪
Share price breaking below $6.00 without clear fundamental justification.
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What Does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) Do?
Market Cap
$4.45B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Steel
Employees
30,000
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company offers hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized and galvannealed, aluminized, galvalume, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel products; austenitic, martensitic, duplex, precipitation hardening, and ferritic stainless-steel products; steel plates; and grain oriented and non-oriented electrical steel products, as well as slab, rail, scrap, iron ore, coal, coke, and tool and die, stamped components. It also provides tubular components, including carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing products. In addition, the company offers tin mill products; hot and cold stamp assembly, tooling, and sampling solutions; ingots, rolled blooms, and cast blooms; and hot-briquetted iron products. Further, it owns five iron ore mines in Minnesota and Michigan. The company serves automotive, infrastructure, and manufacturing industries; and distributors and converters, and steel producers. The company was formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. and changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Visit Cleveland-Cliffs Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Cleveland-Cliffs represents a fundamentally strong, vertically integrated North American steel producer benefiting from domestic infrastructure tailwinds and its strategic leadership in decarbonization via HBI. However, it operates in a mature, cyclical industry, making it unsuitable for a 10x growth thesis within 3-5 years. The current lack of recent financial data further complicates any short-term investment rationale, positioning it as a value or income play for long-term industrial exposure rather than a hyper-growth opportunity.
Is CLF Stock Undervalued?
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CLF Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$8.00
Bull Case
$10.00
Bear Case
$6.50
Valuation Basis
No recent financial data (earnings, cash flow) available for a robust valuation model. Target reflects current price stability amidst industry cyclicality, with limited near-term growth catalysts. Upside assumes slight improvement in steel demand/prices, downside reflects potential softening or sustained lack of clear financial reporting.
Entry Strategy
Given the lack of recent data, any entry is highly speculative. For existing holders, average down cautiously only if significant positive financial updates emerge. New positions are not recommended without current fundamentals.
Exit Strategy
Take profit on any significant rallies above $10.00. Set a stop loss below $6.50 if the company fails to provide updated financial reports or if market conditions for steel deteriorate further.
Portfolio Allocation
0-1% for highly aggressive risk tolerance (due to data opacity and lack of hyper-growth indicators).
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CLF Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-2.67
Forward P/E
12.00
Profitability
Net Margin
-7.91%
Return on Equity
-18.94%
Revenue Growth
-0.30%
EPS
$-0.43
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.95
Quick Ratio
0.50
Debt/Equity
1.15
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.99
Does CLF Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
CLF's vertical integration, large operating scale, and strategic investments in HBI provide a durable, albeit narrow, moat. These factors create significant cost advantages and barriers to entry in the North American steel market, allowing it to navigate industry cycles more effectively than less integrated competitors. The moat is unlikely to erode quickly due to the capital-intensive nature of the industry and CLF's established infrastructure.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Disruption from new, potentially lower-cost steelmaking technologies.
- •Significant shifts in global trade policies and import tariffs.
- •Rapid decline in demand from key customer segments like automotive.
CLF Competitive Moat Analysis
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CLF Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (due to lack of fresh news, general sentiment likely tied to broader industrial sector trends)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral (no recent analyst upgrades/downgrades or major fund activity indicated in available data)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No recent Form 4 filings or specific insider activity mentioned in the provided market intelligence.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no unusual options activity indicating institutional positioning was identified in the provided market intelligence).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late-April to early-May 2026 (for Q1 2026, assuming historical reporting patterns). Q4 2025 should have already been reported, but no data is available.
Surprise Probability
Low (difficult to assess without recent analyst estimates or prior quarter's performance data)
Historical Earnings Pattern
No specific historical earnings reaction patterns are discernible from the limited provided data, but steel companies often react to guidance and commodity price trends.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
X (United States Steel Corp.)
Market Share Trend
Stable (CLF is a key player in North American flat-rolled steel; no data suggests significant shifts recently).
Valuation vs Peers
Difficult to provide a current valuation comparison without CLF's recent financial metrics, but generally, steel producers trade at lower multiples due to cyclicality.
Competitive Advantages
- •Vertical integration (iron ore mines to finished steel products).
- •Leading producer of Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) in North America, critical for decarbonization.
- •Strong market position in the North American automotive sector.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CLF Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •No specific near-term catalysts available due to lack of recent market intelligence.
- •Potential future earnings report (Q4 2025 or Q1 2026) if released, could provide clarity on financial health.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Continued progress on decarbonization initiatives and HBI adoption.
- •Potential infrastructure spending in North America boosting steel demand.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Further consolidation within the North American steel industry.
- •Sustainable demand for specialty steel products and advanced materials.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CLF?
- ✓
Clear and timely reporting of Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings with strong free cash flow.
- ✓
Positive guidance for average selling prices and steel demand for the rest of 2026.
- ✓
Acceleration of adoption for HBI in external markets or significant government support for green steel initiatives.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CLF
See how Cleveland-Cliffs Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc CLF | $4.5B | 1.8 | -2.7 | $18.6B | -7.9% | -0.3% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.0B | 0.9 | 39.9 | $26.4B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
As of April 1, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc has a DVR Score of 1.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's market capitalization is approximately $4.5B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Steel industry.
What ticker symbol does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc use?
CLF is the ticker symbol for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for CLF stock?
Our analysis rates Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CLF?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -2.7. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's revenue growing?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc has reported revenue growth of -0.3%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is CLF stock profitable?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc has a profit margin of -7.9%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the CLF DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 1, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.