CF Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
CF Industries Holdings Inc
Basic Materials • Agricultural Inputs
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CF Stock
We analyzed CF Industries Holdings Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CF through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CF Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The ongoing DOJ antitrust probe poses a significant regulatory risk that could result in substantial fines or operational restrictions, negatively impacting CF's market position and financial outlook. Additionally, the cyclical nature of commodity prices, particularly natural gas, directly impacts profitability and can lead to earnings volatility, making long-term growth difficult to predict.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Multiple analyst downgrades (Mizuho, BofA, Rothschild Redburn) with price targets significantly below current price.
- ⚠
Significant insider selling ($1.44M by S. Menzel) and proposed director sale over the last 90 days.
- ⚠
Ongoing DOJ antitrust probe creates regulatory uncertainty.
- ⚠
Valuation noted as 'overvalued' by InvestingPro at P/E 13.92.
- ⚠
The 10x growth potential is highly speculative, relying on an early-stage pivot in a capital-intensive industry for a large-cap company.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Outcome of DOJ antitrust probe
- 📅
Sustained increases in natural gas costs
- 📅
Global oversupply of nitrogen fertilizers
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Negative outcome or substantial fines from the DOJ antitrust probe.
- 🚪
Further significant analyst downgrades or price target reductions below $80.
- 🚪
Sustained natural gas prices above $4.00/MMBtu that erode margins.
- 🚪
Stock price breaking below $100 psychological support level.
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What Does CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Do?
Market Cap
$18.49B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Employees
2,800
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products. It primarily serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
Visit CF Industries Holdings Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
CF Industries is a well-managed, financially healthy leader in nitrogen fertilizer, strategically pivoting towards the long-term opportunity in blue/green ammonia as a decarbonization solution. While this pivot positions the company for future market leadership in an emerging industry, the inherent cyclicality and capital intensity of its core business, coupled with the early-stage nature of the clean ammonia market, make 10x growth within 3-5 years highly improbable. The current negative analyst sentiment and insider selling further dim short-to-medium term prospects.
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CF Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$90.00
Bull Case
$110.00
Bear Case
$70.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 9.2x P/E multiple applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $9.73 (derived from FY25 net earnings).
Entry Strategy
Avoid entry at current levels given analyst downgrades. Consider entry on significant dips below $80, possibly near historical support zones, only if fundamental outlook improves or negative catalysts resolve.
Exit Strategy
If holding, consider profit-taking above $120. Set a stop-loss at $100 to limit downside risk given negative analyst sentiment.
Portfolio Allocation
0% for aggressive risk tolerance; not suitable for growth-focused portfolios.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CF Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.71
Forward P/E
14.82
Price/Book
1.98
Price/Sales
2.36
Profitability
Gross Margin
38.45%
Operating Margin
32.38%
Net Margin
20.54%
Return on Equity
29.95%
Revenue Growth
19.34%
EPS
$9.00
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.37
Quick Ratio
2.82
Debt/Equity
0.66
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.44
Dividend Yield
1.66%
Does CF Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable, with potential for expansion into clean energy markets.
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat, primarily derived from low-cost natural gas access and efficient production scale, is durable as long as North American gas prices remain advantageous relative to global competitors. Its early move into clean ammonia could build future moat, but this is yet to be proven at scale.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Significant shifts in global natural gas prices or new import/export regulations.
- •Increased competition in the nascent clean ammonia market from larger energy players or new entrants.
- •Technological advancements that erode the cost advantage of current production methods.
CF Competitive Moat Analysis
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CF Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, with growing cautiousness due to market conditions and analyst views.
Institutional Sentiment
Negative, indicated by recent downgrades to Underperform/Sell by Mizuho, BofA Securities, and Rothschild Redburn.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Susan L. Menzel (insider) sold 3,215 shares for $311,859 on 02/26/2026, 6,858 shares for $713,232 on 03/02/2026, and 3,914 shares for $415,250 on 03/03/2026. An unnamed director proposed selling 8,631 shares for $889,695 (prior transaction 03/02/2026). This reflects significant insider selling.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no unusual put/call ratio direction or significant institutional positioning observed in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06 (Q1 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium (Q4 2025 beat on low natural gas prices, but current environment faces higher natural gas costs and negative analyst sentiment)
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, CF's stock price reaction is highly sensitive to natural gas prices and global fertilizer demand/supply dynamics. Q4 2025 beat on low gas prices.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Nutrien (NTR)
Market Share Trend
Stable in core nitrogen markets, benefiting from North American natural gas cost advantage. Potential for long-term gains in clean ammonia market, but currently nascent.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a slight premium on P/E (12.4x) compared to some peers, but analysts see it as overvalued given its cyclical nature and recent performance. Many peers also face commodity price volatility.
Competitive Advantages
- •Significant cost advantage due to access to low-cost North American natural gas feedstock.
- •Large-scale, efficient production facilities (efficient scale).
- •Early mover in blue/green ammonia development, strategic positioning for future market.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CF Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings (May 6, 2026)
- •Progress updates on POET low-carbon fertilizer pilot
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further developments/partnerships in blue/green ammonia
- •Resolution of natural gas price volatility
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Scaling of clean ammonia production and widespread adoption
- •Decarbonization mandates driving demand for clean hydrogen carriers
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CF?
- ✓
Significant acceleration in blue/green ammonia project timelines or partnerships.
- ✓
Resolution of the DOJ antitrust probe with a favorable outcome.
- ✓
Demonstrated margin expansion in core fertilizer business despite commodity volatility.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CF
See how CF Industries Holdings Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CF Industries Holdings Inc CF | $18.5B | 0.1 | 12.7 | $5.9B | 20.5% | 19.3% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.0B | 0.9 | 39.9 | $26.4B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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How CF Industries Holdings Inc Makes Money
CF Industries manufactures and sells a diverse range of nitrogen fertilizer and industrial products primarily to agricultural customers and industrial users worldwide. The company leverages its access to low-cost North American natural gas, a key feedstock, to produce ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and other nitrogen-based chemicals. It generates revenue by selling these commodity products in global markets, where prices are influenced by agricultural demand, energy costs, and global supply dynamics. The company is also investing in blue and green ammonia production to serve the emerging clean energy and decarbonization markets, positioning itself as a future leader in sustainable industrial products.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)?
As of April 16, 2026, CF Industries Holdings Inc has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of CF Industries Holdings Inc?
CF Industries Holdings Inc's market capitalization is approximately $18.5B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Agricultural Inputs industry.
What ticker symbol does CF Industries Holdings Inc use?
CF is the ticker symbol for CF Industries Holdings Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for CF stock?
Our analysis rates CF Industries Holdings Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CF?
CF Industries Holdings Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.7. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does CF Industries Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, CF Industries Holdings Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.66%.
Is CF Industries Holdings Inc's revenue growing?
CF Industries Holdings Inc has reported revenue growth of 19.3%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is CF stock profitable?
CF Industries Holdings Inc has a profit margin of 20.5%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the CF DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of CF Industries Holdings Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 16, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CF (CF Industries Holdings Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.