CDE Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Coeur Mining, Inc
Basic Materials • Gold
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CDE Stock
We analyzed Coeur Mining, Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CDE through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CDE Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk for Coeur Mining is a sustained downturn in precious metals prices. With gold and silver sales representing over 85% of Q1 2026 revenue (Gold $475.2M, Silver $362.2M), a 15-20% drop in commodity prices over the next 12-18 months would severely impact its $856 million quarterly revenue run-rate, significantly reducing gross margins and free cash flow, making it challenging to maintain the recently declared dividend and fund future growth projects.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Revenue growth is heavily reliant on the New Gold acquisition; organic growth rates from existing operations are likely much lower, not indicative of hyper-growth.
- ⚠
The mining industry is highly cyclical and capital-intensive; capital expenditures can be unpredictable, and operational performance is sensitive to input costs.
- ⚠
Significant share dilution occurred with the New Gold acquisition (392,682,578 shares issued), impacting per-share metrics, though partially offset by share repurchases.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Commodity Price Decline (Q3 2026-Q1 2027): A significant and sustained downturn in gold and silver prices (e.g., 15% or more) could erode Q1 2026's record profitability and free cash flow generation.
- 📅
New Gold Integration Challenges (H2 2026): Unexpected operational issues or higher-than-expected integration costs from the New Gold acquisition could negatively impact guidance and future earnings.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly Free Cash Flow (FCF) turns consistently negative for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if the price of gold drops below $1,900/oz for a sustained period (30+ days), indicating significant market weakness for its primary commodity.
- 🚪
Exit if total debt exceeds cash and equivalents by more than 2x for two consecutive quarters (currently cash $843.2M vs debt $761.4M).
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What Does Coeur Mining, Inc (CDE) Do?
Market Cap
$19.61B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Gold
Employees
2,116
Coeur Mining, Inc. operates as a gold and silver producer in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, Wharf, Silvertip, and Las Chispas segments. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, and other related metals. It markets and sells its concentrates to third-party customers, including refiners and smelters, under off-take agreements. The company was formerly known as Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation and changed its name to Coeur Mining, Inc. in May 2013. Coeur Mining, Inc. was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Visit Coeur Mining, Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Coeur successfully integrates the New Gold assets, realizes projected synergies of at least $50M annually by FY2027, and maintains strong operational efficiency, while gold and silver prices remain elevated or trend higher (e.g., gold above $2,300/oz), then the combined entity can sustain Q1 2026's $856M revenue run-rate (translating to ~$3.4B annually) and $475M adjusted EBITDA run-rate, driving substantial free cash flow generation (Q1 FCF $266.8M) and enabling a valuation re-rating towards 1.5x EV/Sales for a leading North American precious metals producer, potentially reaching a $35-$40 price target.
Is CDE Stock Undervalued?
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CDE Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$26.00
Bull Case
$35.00
Bear Case
$15.00
Valuation Basis
Based on a 18x forward P/E applied to an estimated FY2026 EPS of $1.45 (annualizing Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.36, plus a slight premium for integration synergies and commodity price stability).
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $18-$20 range; observe if the stock holds above the $18 support level established in early 2026.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking for short-term gains at the $25-$28 analyst target range. Set a stop-loss at $17.00 to protect against downside risk below recent lows.
Portfolio Allocation
2% for moderate risk tolerance, given the cyclical nature and large-cap profile.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CDE Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.53
Forward P/E
13.97
EV/EBITDA
13.94
PEG Ratio
0.68
Price/Book
1.91
Price/Sales
7.73
Profitability
Gross Margin
60.09%
Operating Margin
38.67%
Net Margin
31.15%
Return on Equity
16.27%
Revenue Growth
113.68%
EPS
$1.21
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.47
Quick Ratio
1.99
Debt/Equity
0.10
Total Debt
$761.40M
Cash & Equivalents
$843.20M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$341.00M
Free Cash Flow
$266.80M
EBITDA
$474.90M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.28
Dividend Yield
0.21%
Does CDE Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable, the New Gold acquisition strengthens scale but doesn't fundamentally alter the nature or expand the durability of the mining moat.
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat's durability is tied to the quality and longevity of its ore bodies, its ability to maintain low production costs, and its access to capital for exploration and development, all of which are subject to commodity price cycles and geological risks.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Commodity price volatility directly impacts the profitability of existing assets and the economic viability of future projects.
- •Resource depletion over time without sufficient new discoveries or acquisitions.
- •Rising operating costs (energy, labor, reagents) eroding cost advantages.
CDE Competitive Moat Analysis
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CDE Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, as no specific social media trends are provided; general investor sentiment likely tracks commodity price movements.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with multiple analyst targets implying significant upside (median $26.0) and a 'Buy' rating from TD Securities in November 2025.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Only a single insider trade noted over a 6-month window, but no specific Form 4 details (names, amounts) are provided in the research; insufficient to indicate strong conviction.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, no specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades are indicated in the provided research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026 results)
Surprise Probability
Medium, given Q1 2026 beat on revenue but missed on EPS, suggesting some operational variability post-acquisition.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Without specific historical data, stock price reaction to earnings can be volatile, highly dependent on commodity price environment and guidance rather than just headline beats/misses.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share and increasing production scale within the North American precious metals mining sector due to the New Gold acquisition.
Valuation vs Peers
Without direct peer valuation data, a P/E of 14.8 (unofficial source) suggests it's likely trading in line with or at a slight discount to larger, more diversified gold miners, but potentially at a premium to smaller, riskier silver-focused peers.
Competitive Advantages
- •Scale and diversified asset base post-New Gold acquisition, particularly concentration in North America.
- •Operational expertise in managing complex mining operations.
- •Established infrastructure and permitted reserves in key mining regions.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CDE Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (Est. August 2026): Positive production guidance for the full year and confirmation of New Gold integration synergies exceeding initial expectations, driving sustained revenue and EBITDA growth.
- •Precious Metals Price Surge (Q2-Q3 2026): A sustained rise in gold prices above $2,350/oz and silver prices above $30/oz could significantly boost margins and investor sentiment, as these directly impact 85%+ of Coeur's revenue.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •New Gold Integration Synergies Realization (H1 2027): If Coeur publicly reports achievement of $50M+ in annual synergies from the New Gold acquisition, it would signal successful integration and improved operational efficiency.
- •Rochester Expansion Completion & Ramp-up (Q4 2027): Successful completion and ramp-up of the Rochester expansion project, adding ~5 million ounces of silver and ~50,000 ounces of gold annually, could significantly boost production volumes and lower per-ounce costs.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained Precious Metals Supercycle (2028-2030): If macro-economic factors lead to a multi-year precious metals supercycle, Coeur's expanded production base could capitalize on significantly higher sustained metal prices, leading to substantial revenue and cash flow growth.
- •Major World-Class Discovery (2029-2030): An announcement of a new, high-grade, low-cost gold or silver discovery within their expanded North American land package, potentially adding 10M+ ounces of gold equivalent reserves, could drive a significant re-rating.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CDE?
- ✓
Monitor quarterly Free Cash Flow (FCF) for consistent positive generation, ideally above $250M per quarter.
- ✓
Track average realized gold prices (target above $2,250/oz) and silver prices (target above $28/oz) from earnings reports.
- ✓
Observe progress and cost control related to the Rochester expansion project; any significant delays or cost overruns would be a negative.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CDE
See how Coeur Mining, Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coeur Mining, Inc CDE | $19.6B | 0.8 | 24.5 | $856.2M | 31.1% | 113.7% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.3B | 0.6 | 40.1 | $24.9B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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How Coeur Mining, Inc Makes Money
Coeur Mining is a precious metals mining company that generates revenue primarily by extracting and selling gold and silver, with some copper as a byproduct, from its owned and operated mines predominantly located in North America. The company's business model revolves around the discovery, development, and efficient operation of these mining assets to produce metals at a cost lower than market prices, thereby realizing a profit. The recent acquisition of New Gold significantly expanded their geographical footprint and production capacity, solidifying their position as a larger-scale, diversified North American precious metals producer, selling their output to various refiners and industrial buyers.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Coeur Mining, Inc (CDE)?
As of June 3, 2026, Coeur Mining, Inc has a DVR Score of 0.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Coeur Mining, Inc?
Coeur Mining, Inc's market capitalization is approximately $19.6B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Gold industry.
What ticker symbol does Coeur Mining, Inc use?
CDE is the ticker symbol for Coeur Mining, Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for CDE stock?
Our analysis rates Coeur Mining, Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CDE?
Coeur Mining, Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.5. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Coeur Mining, Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Coeur Mining, Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.21%.
Is Coeur Mining, Inc's revenue growing?
Coeur Mining, Inc has reported revenue growth of 113.7%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is CDE stock profitable?
Coeur Mining, Inc has a profit margin of 31.1%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the CDE DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Coeur Mining, Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 3, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CDE (Coeur Mining, Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.