AU Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
Basic Materials • Gold
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AU Stock
We analyzed Anglogold Ashanti PLC using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AU through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
AU Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk is a significant and sustained downturn in global gold prices, which would directly impact AngloGold Ashanti's revenue and profitability, given its direct exposure as a gold producer. For instance, a 15-20% drop in gold prices could reduce annual revenue by $1.0-$1.3 billion from current levels, severely impacting free cash flow generation and the ability to fund capital expenditures.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
High sensitivity to volatile gold prices: AU's performance is directly correlated with a commodity price that can fluctuate wildly, leading to unpredictable earnings.
- ⚠
Capital intensity of operations: Gold mining requires continuous significant capital investment for exploration, development, and sustaining existing mines, which can strain cash flow.
- ⚠
Geopolitical risks: Operations span multiple continents, exposing the company to political instability, labor disputes, and adverse regulatory changes in specific operating jurisdictions.
- ⚠
Dependence on reserve replacement: Sustaining long-term production requires ongoing discovery and development of new reserves, a costly and uncertain endeavor.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 Earnings Miss (estimated 2026-07-31): Failure to meet production targets or a significant increase in All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC), signaling operational challenges and eroding investor confidence.
- 📅
Significant Decline in Gold Price (e.g., below $2,000/ounce by Q4 2026): A reversal in gold's upward trend, potentially driven by aggressive interest rate hikes or a strong USD, would directly reduce revenue and profitability.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if gold prices fall below $1,950/ounce for two consecutive weeks, indicating a breakdown in the precious metal's uptrend.
- 🚪
Sell if quarterly free cash flow falls below $500 million for two consecutive quarters, signaling a significant deterioration in operational efficiency or cash generation.
- 🚪
Exit if the All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) per ounce increase by more than 10% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, indicating significant cost pressures.
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What Does Anglogold Ashanti PLC (AU) Do?
Market Cap
$45.77B
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Gold
Employees
12,634
AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It primarily explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The company's flagship property includes 100% owned the Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Mwanza region in north-western Tanzania. AngloGold Ashanti plc was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
Visit Anglogold Ashanti PLC WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If global inflation persists, driving sustained elevated gold prices (e.g., above $2,500/ounce for the next 2-3 years), then Anglogold Ashanti's robust operational efficiency and strong free cash flow generation (demonstrated by $1.2B in Q1 2026) will translate into significant earnings and dividend growth, leading to a re-rating within the mining sector towards higher multiples. This is bullish because the market may currently underprice the durability of higher gold prices and the company's proven ability to consistently convert those prices into enhanced shareholder returns.
Is AU Stock Undervalued?
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AU Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$110.00
Bull Case
$125.00
Bear Case
$85.00
Valuation Basis
11x forward P/E applied to estimated $10.00 FY2026 EPS (annualized based on strong Q1 performance).
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $88-$92 range, buying on dips towards previous support levels if any are formed after the recent Q1 earnings rally.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $110, with a stop-loss order placed at $85 to protect against significant gold price declines or operational setbacks.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, acknowledging commodity price sensitivity.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AU Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.18
Forward P/E
13.54
EV/EBITDA
12.16
Profitability
Gross Margin
53.53%
Operating Margin
46.52%
Net Margin
31.11%
Return on Equity
43.79%
Revenue Growth
20.75%
EPS
$6.82
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.87
Quick Ratio
2.17
Debt/Equity
0.28
Total Debt
$2.32B
Cash & Equivalents
$2.55B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$3.85B
Free Cash Flow
$2.52B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.63
Dividend Yield
3.88%
Does AU Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat persists due to the significant capital barriers to entry, the long-term nature of mining rights and leases, and the specialized technical and operational expertise required for large-scale gold extraction in diverse geological and political environments. It's difficult and time-consuming for new players to replicate their asset base.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Depletion of existing high-grade reserves at a faster rate than replacement through exploration, increasing average production costs over time.
- •Emergence of lower-cost gold producers or disruptive extraction technologies that could undercut AngloGold's cost advantage.
- •Increased regulatory burdens, environmental compliance costs, or nationalization risks in operating jurisdictions, impacting profitability and asset value.
AU Competitive Moat Analysis
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AU Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Consistent with a mature sector, little evidence of widespread retail excitement or concern in provided data).
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral (No specific analyst upgrades/downgrades provided in the research, suggesting stable institutional perception after recent Q1 earnings).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 insider transactions were provided in the supplied sources.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific data provided to indicate unusual put/call ratio or institutional positioning).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-07-31 (Estimated Q2 2026 report date)
Surprise Probability
Medium (Q1 EPS beat, but revenue missed slightly, suggesting some variability in estimates).
Historical Earnings Pattern
No historical earnings reaction patterns were provided in the supplied sources; however, commodity producers often react positively to strong FCF and production beats, especially during periods of high commodity prices.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
NEM (Newmont Corporation)
Market Share Trend
Stable (Anglogold Ashanti maintains a significant global market share, not showing rapid gains or losses in the highly competitive gold mining sector).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading generally in line with large-cap gold peers on traditional metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA, given its diversified asset base and operational profile.
Competitive Advantages
- •Global diversification of mining assets across multiple continents, mitigating single-country risk.
- •Scale of operations and established infrastructure, contributing to economies of scale.
- •Track record in exploration and development of large-scale gold deposits.
- •Demonstrated operational efficiency leading to strong free cash flow generation.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AU Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (estimated 2026-07-31): Strong beat on gold production volume and further free cash flow generation could sustain positive momentum and re-affirm operational guidance.
- •Sustained Gold Price above $2,300/ounce: Continued geopolitical uncertainty or inflationary pressures keeping gold prices elevated, directly boosting revenue and profitability.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Successful Execution of Redevelopment Projects (e.g., Obuasi mine): Reaching full production capacity and achieving targeted cost efficiencies, contributing an additional $150-$200M to annual EBITDA.
- •Reserve Replenishment and Discovery: Successful exploration leading to a significant increase (e.g., >10%) in proven and probable gold reserves beyond current depletion rates, ensuring long-term production visibility.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Industry Consolidation & Portfolio Optimization: Strategic acquisitions of smaller, high-grade assets or divestment of non-core operations by FY2028, leading to a more streamlined and profitable asset base, increasing total gold production by 5-10%.
- •Sustained Global Demand for Gold as a Safe Haven Asset: Long-term macroeconomic trends (e.g., continued debasement of fiat currencies, geopolitical instability) maintaining gold's appeal above $2,500/ounce into 2029.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AU?
- ✓
Watch for sustained gold prices above $2,200/ounce, as this threshold typically supports strong profitability for major producers.
- ✓
Monitor consistent free cash flow generation exceeding $1.0 billion per quarter, indicating robust operational performance.
- ✓
Any significant increase in proven and probable gold reserves beyond current depletion rates, signaling long-term production sustainability.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with AU
See how Anglogold Ashanti PLC compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anglogold Ashanti PLC AU | $45.8B | 0.4 | 13.2 | $8.6B | 31.1% | 20.8% | |
Air Products and Chemicals Inc APD | $65.8B | 1.2 | -197.5 | $12.0B | -2.7% | 1.4% | Compare → |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $88.3B | 0.6 | 40.1 | $24.9B | 7.8% | -28.0% | Compare → |
Newmont Corporation NEM | $130.0B | 1.0 | 17.4 | $22.7B | 31.7% | 21.0% | Compare → |
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How Anglogold Ashanti PLC Makes Money
AngloGold Ashanti is one of the world's largest gold mining companies, primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, and processing of gold ore. It operates a diversified portfolio of mines across several continents, producing gold that is sold on the international market. The company aims to extract gold efficiently and profitably, balancing operational costs with production volumes and continuous reserve development to maximize shareholder returns.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Anglogold Ashanti PLC (AU)?
As of May 23, 2026, Anglogold Ashanti PLC has a DVR Score of 0.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Anglogold Ashanti PLC?
Anglogold Ashanti PLC's market capitalization is approximately $45.8B. The company operates in the Basic Materials sector within the Gold industry.
What ticker symbol does Anglogold Ashanti PLC use?
AU is the ticker symbol for Anglogold Ashanti PLC. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for AU stock?
Our analysis rates Anglogold Ashanti PLC's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AU?
Anglogold Ashanti PLC currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does Anglogold Ashanti PLC pay a dividend?
Yes, Anglogold Ashanti PLC pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 3.88%.
Is Anglogold Ashanti PLC's revenue growing?
Anglogold Ashanti PLC has reported revenue growth of 20.8%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is AU stock profitable?
Anglogold Ashanti PLC has a profit margin of 31.1%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the AU DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Anglogold Ashanti PLC is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 23, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AU (Anglogold Ashanti PLC) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.