SRFM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Surf Air Mobility Inc
Industrials • Airlines
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About SRFM Stock
We analyzed Surf Air Mobility Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran SRFM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
SRFM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company's immediate cash reserves ($7.06M as of Dec 31, 2025) are insufficient to sustain operations for an extended period, especially with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $41.7M for FY2025. Failure to execute a substantial capital raise (likely involving significant dilution via its S-3 shelf registration) could lead to severe liquidity challenges, potential insolvency, or a drastic curtailment of its ambitious electrification strategy.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
1-month cash runway (based on last reported FCF, prior to any recent capital raise details)
- ⚠
Shareholders' deficit of -$54.857 million as of Dec 31, 2025
- ⚠
Massive share dilution from 16.9 million to 73.0 million shares in FY2025
- ⚠
S-3 shelf registration effective March 26, 2026, signals high likelihood of further near-term dilution
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Failure to secure sufficient capital, leading to severe liquidity issues
- 📅
Significant delays or setbacks in regulatory approvals for electrification
- 📅
Intensified competition from well-capitalized aerospace players
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if the company fails to announce a significant capital raise by Q2 2026 end
- 🚪
Sell if Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss widens substantially, indicating worsening cash burn
- 🚪
Exit if the share count exceeds 100 million without proportional revenue growth or a clear path to profitability
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What Does Surf Air Mobility Inc (SRFM) Do?
Market Cap
$81.22M
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Airlines
Employees
634
Surf Air Mobility Inc. engages in the air mobility business in the United States and internationally. Its air mobility platform provides scheduled commercial air service flights; and on-demand flights created for customers on an ad-hoc, by request basis. Surf Air Mobility Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Hawthorne, California.
Visit Surf Air Mobility Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Surf Air Mobility is a high-risk, high-reward investment betting on the electrification of regional air travel. Its unique strategy of leveraging existing airline operations to build a future hybrid-electric network, supported by key partnerships and now demonstrated revenue generation, positions it for potential exponential growth if it can overcome severe financial headwinds and successfully execute its ambitious vision. The 10x potential lies in its ability to become a dominant player in this transformative, underserved market.
Is SRFM Stock Undervalued?
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SRFM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$2.85
Bull Case
$5.00
Bear Case
$0.50
Valuation Basis
Based on 1.7x P/S applied to projected FY26 revenue of $160M (assuming ~50% growth) divided by an estimated 95M fully diluted shares.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on dips below $1.10, especially if the company announces a successful, well-structured capital raise that doesn't excessively dilute existing shareholders, which could serve as a temporary support zone.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $3.00 if capital structure improves significantly; Stop loss at $0.80 if financial distress or further excessive dilution becomes apparent.
Portfolio Allocation
3% for aggressive risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is SRFM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-0.30
PEG Ratio
-0.04
Price/Book
-1.50
Price/Sales
1.80
Profitability
Gross Margin
1.88%
Operating Margin
-97.84%
Net Margin
-66.95%
Revenue Growth
52.30%
EPS
$-3.00
Balance Sheet
Total Debt
$74.97M
Cash & Equivalents
$7.06M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
3.00
Does SRFM Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
⚪ None
Moat Trend
Potentially Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Currently very low. The business is highly capital-intensive, with significant regulatory hurdles and competition from well-funded aerospace giants. Any nascent moat from network effects or IP is still developing and vulnerable.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Competitors with superior funding and technology entering the electric regional air market
- •Regulatory delays that hinder fleet electrification
- •Failure to achieve sufficient scale to make network effects economically viable
SRFM Competitive Moat Analysis
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SRFM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral/Negative (Canaccord Genuity lowered target from $3.50 to $2.25, Hold rating; Weiss Ratings reissued 'Sell')
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Palantir Technologies Inc. (10% Owner) bought shares on June 18, 2025; Director sold 75,840 shares ($184,291) on June 3, 2025. No Form 4 filings reported in last 90 days (post-January 10, 2026) for CEO/CFO.
Options Flow
Normal options activity
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated mid-May 2026 (for Q1 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q3 2025 revenue beat estimates (specifics unavailable); generally sensitive to cash position and strategic partnership updates.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Joby Aviation (JOBY)
Market Share Trend
Gaining (establishing foothold in a new, future market segment of electric regional air travel; stable in existing regional operations via acquisitions).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a P/S of ~0.84 on reported FY25 revenue, which is significantly lower than pre-revenue eVTOL peers like Joby Aviation (where P/S is not applicable) but reflects its distressed financial state. It commands a premium over traditional, slow-growth regional airlines due to its electrification pivot, but also carries higher risk.
Competitive Advantages
- •Strategic partnerships with established aerospace players (Textron, BETA Technologies)
- •Existing operational revenue base from traditional regional airline services
- •Early-mover advantage in hybrid-electric regional flight solutions
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive SRFM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (Estimated mid-May 2026)
- •Progress on BETA Technologies partnership milestones for electric aircraft service
- •Successful and non-excessively dilutive capital raise utilizing S-3 shelf registration
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Further FAA STC (Supplemental Type Certificate) progress for hybrid-electric powertrains
- •Expansion of regional routes and network capacity
- •Additional strategic partnerships for fleet or charging infrastructure development
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving significant market share in underserved regional electric air travel
- •Full commercialization of hybrid-electric/electric fleet
- •Widespread adoption of sustainable air mobility solutions
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for SRFM?
- ✓
Consistent acceleration in quarterly revenue growth rates
- ✓
Demonstrated improvement in free cash flow and reduction in overall adjusted EBITDA losses
- ✓
Announcements of significant FAA STC approvals for its electric powertrains
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with SRFM
See how Surf Air Mobility Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Surf Air Mobility Inc SRFM | $81.2M | 6.2 | -0.3 | $108.2M | -67.0% | 52.3% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Surf Air Mobility Inc Makes Money
Surf Air Mobility operates an air mobility platform, offering both scheduled regional flights and on-demand charters primarily in underserved markets, utilizing aircraft operated by third parties. Its core business generates revenue by selling passenger seats and charter services. The company's long-term strategic objective is to revolutionize regional air travel by transitioning its fleet and network to hybrid-electric and eventually fully-electric aircraft, leveraging partnerships with manufacturers like Textron and BETA Technologies. This aims to reduce operating costs, improve environmental footprint, and expand access to regional destinations.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Surf Air Mobility Inc (SRFM)?
As of April 9, 2026, Surf Air Mobility Inc has a DVR Score of 6.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Surf Air Mobility Inc?
Surf Air Mobility Inc's market capitalization is approximately $81.2M. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Airlines industry.
What ticker symbol does Surf Air Mobility Inc use?
SRFM is the ticker symbol for Surf Air Mobility Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for SRFM stock?
Our analysis rates Surf Air Mobility Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of SRFM?
Surf Air Mobility Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -0.3. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Surf Air Mobility Inc's revenue growing?
Surf Air Mobility Inc has reported revenue growth of 52.3%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is SRFM stock profitable?
Surf Air Mobility Inc has a profit margin of -67.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the SRFM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Surf Air Mobility Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 9, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for SRFM (Surf Air Mobility Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.