SMR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Nuscale Power Corp
Industrials • Specialty Industrial Machinery
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About SMR Stock
We analyzed Nuscale Power Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran SMR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
SMR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
With a Q1 2026 operating cash outflow of -$314.7 million, NuScale faces significant liquidity challenges if it cannot secure new substantial project revenue or additional financing beyond its current $1.0 billion liquidity before its cash runway diminishes, potentially impacting its ability to fund critical R&D and project development.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 revenue declined 95.8% YoY to $0.565 million, indicating a severe drop in commercial activity.
- ⚠
Q1 2026 operating loss widened to -$57.5 million from -$35.3 million in Q1 2025, showing deteriorating operational efficiency.
- ⚠
Q1 2026 operating cash outflow of -$314.7 million signals a rapid depletion of cash reserves.
- ⚠
Share count increased due to the sale of 3.2 million Class A shares via an ATM program, resulting in dilution without commensurate revenue growth.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Continued High Operating Cash Outflow Without New Project Revenue (Q2 2026): If Q2 operating cash outflow remains above -$200M, indicating an accelerating burn rate that strains the $1.0B liquidity.
- 📅
Termination or Delay of Romania SMR Project (Any time): Failure to convert the in-principle approval to a definitive contract, or significant delays, would severely impact revenue pipeline and market sentiment.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if operating cash outflow exceeds $250M for two consecutive quarters without a substantial, new project contract announcement.
- 🚪
Sell if total liquidity (cash + short-term investments) falls below $400M, indicating a shortened runway for operations and development.
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What Does Nuscale Power Corp (SMR) Do?
Market Cap
$4.83B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Employees
330
NuScale Power Corporation provides small modular reactor technology solutions. It offers NuScale Power Module (NPM), a water reactor that can generate 77 megawatts of electricity (MWe). The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Corvallis, Oregon.
Visit Nuscale Power Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If NuScale successfully converts its in-principle approval for the six-module SMR project in Romania into a definitive multi-billion dollar contract and secures at least one similar large-scale deployment deal in the U.S. or elsewhere by late 2027, then it could achieve a significant re-rating towards a $20B+ market cap, representing substantial upside from current levels as proof-of-concept for its certified SMR technology accelerates global adoption.
Is SMR Stock Undervalued?
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SMR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$18.00
Bull Case
$25.00
Bear Case
$9.00
Valuation Basis
Based on market re-rating potential reflecting tangible progress on key SMR deployment projects and the intrinsic value of its NRC-certified technology.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging between $10-$12, targeting recent support levels, but with a highly speculative allocation given current financial performance.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $18, with remaining position evaluated at $25. Implement a strict stop-loss at $9 to manage downside risk from continued cash burn.
Portfolio Allocation
3% for aggressive risk tolerance, considering the high-risk, high-reward nature and current operational challenges.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is SMR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-9.50
Forward P/E
10.00
EV/EBITDA
-5.70
Price/Book
3.29
Price/Sales
238.64
Profitability
Gross Margin
23.84%
Operating Margin
-3812.57%
Net Margin
-2066.55%
Return on Equity
-40.01%
Revenue Growth
-61.93%
EPS
$-2.92
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.30
Quick Ratio
4.28
Debt/Equity
0.01
Total Debt
$5.68M
Cash & Equivalents
$890.13M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$460.00M
Free Cash Flow
-$460.00M
EBITDA
-$663.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.23
Does SMR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is primarily driven by regulatory certification and proprietary design, which are highly durable given the significant barriers to entry in the nuclear sector. However, it is vulnerable to faster-to-market or significantly cheaper next-generation SMR designs or alternative clean energy solutions.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Emergence of competing SMR technologies with faster deployment times or lower capital costs.
- •Reduced government support or shifting regulatory landscape for nuclear power, favoring other renewable sources.
SMR Competitive Moat Analysis
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SMR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Retail sentiment likely mixed, with long-term believers offset by concern over recent poor financial performance.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral. Lack of recent analyst consensus or specific upgrades/downgrades in provided data, but poor Q1 results typically elicit caution.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Not verifiable from the provided sources for the last 90 days. The previous concern about 'heavy insider selling' is not reaffirmed by current intelligence.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual activity reported in the provided sources.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026 results)
Surprise Probability
High
Historical Earnings Pattern
Given the Q1 2026 miss and sharp revenue decline, the stock has shown sensitivity to operational news, potentially reacting negatively to further misses or positive to any unexpected contract wins.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Not explicitly named in provided research. Competitors generally include other SMR developers (e.g., GE Hitachi, Rolls-Royce SMR) and advanced nuclear companies.
Market Share Trend
Stable in a nascent market, but needs to convert pipeline into revenue to gain actual market share.
Valuation vs Peers
Difficult to compare without specific peer valuation data. Given losses and low revenue, traditional multiples are non-meaningful. Valuation is largely driven by future project potential and intellectual property.
Competitive Advantages
- •First-mover advantage with NRC-certified SMR technology.
- •Proprietary SMR design and associated intellectual property.
- •Modular and scalable plant design offers deployment flexibility for customers.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive SMR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (Estimated early-August 2026): Focus on any forward guidance on future project revenue and an update on operating cash burn.
- •Definitive Contract Signing for Romania SMR Project (Expected 2026-2027): Conversion of in-principle approval to a firm, multi-billion dollar contract, providing clear revenue visibility.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •U.S. Government Funding & Support for Carbon-Free Power Project (CFFP) (H2 2026 - H1 2027): Specific grants or legislative action supporting SMR deployment could de-risk projects and accelerate adoption.
- •New SMR Project Announcement in North America or Europe (H1 2027 - H2 2027): Securing an additional significant commercial SMR deployment agreement beyond Romania, validating broader market acceptance.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Widespread Global SMR Adoption & Scale Manufacturing (2028-2030): If NuScale becomes a leading supplier for a global SMR build-out, driving revenues to multi-billion dollar run rates.
- •Next-Generation SMR Design Development & Certification (2029-2031): Introduction of more efficient or cost-effective SMR designs that expand the total addressable market and maintain competitive leadership.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for SMR?
- ✓
Monitor for definitive contract signings for SMR projects, particularly the Romania project, including the specific contract value and revenue recognition schedule.
- ✓
Watch quarterly operating cash outflow – sustained burn exceeding $100M per quarter without substantial revenue will signal liquidity pressure and potentially shorten its cash runway.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with SMR
See how Nuscale Power Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuscale Power Corp SMR | $4.8B | 6.2 | -9.5 | $31.5M | -2066.6% | -61.9% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | $400.8B | 0.1 | 42.5 | $70.8B | 13.3% | 11.8% | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $299.7B | 0.5 | 34.7 | $41.1B | 17.9% | 21.8% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc HON | $134.7B | 1.5 | 29.8 | $37.4B | 11.4% | 3.6% | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $88.8B | 0.1 | 16.9 | $89.7B | 5.9% | -2.9% | Compare → |
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How Nuscale Power Corp Makes Money
NuScale Power designs and develops small modular reactors (SMRs) for electricity generation, aiming to provide cleaner, more flexible, and safer nuclear power solutions compared to traditional large-scale nuclear plants. The company primarily generates revenue through technology licenses, engineering services, and long-term service agreements related to the deployment of its SMR power plants for utility and industrial customers globally. Its business model relies on securing and executing large, long-term projects.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Nuscale Power Corp (SMR)?
As of June 3, 2026, Nuscale Power Corp has a DVR Score of 6.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Nuscale Power Corp?
Nuscale Power Corp's market capitalization is approximately $4.8B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry.
What ticker symbol does Nuscale Power Corp use?
SMR is the ticker symbol for Nuscale Power Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for SMR stock?
Our analysis rates Nuscale Power Corp's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of SMR?
Nuscale Power Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -9.5. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Nuscale Power Corp's revenue growing?
Nuscale Power Corp has reported revenue growth of -61.9%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is SMR stock profitable?
Nuscale Power Corp has a profit margin of -2066.6%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the SMR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Nuscale Power Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 3, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for SMR (Nuscale Power Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.