SBUX Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Starbucks Corp
Consumer Cyclical • Restaurants
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About SBUX Stock
We analyzed Starbucks Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran SBUX through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
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Weekly adjusted close · Quarterly revenue & EPS · DVR score history
SBUX Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Disappointing comparable store sales growth in key markets (e.g., North America, China)
- 📅
Escalating commodity costs (coffee beans, dairy) impacting margins
- 📅
Intensified competition from independent coffee shops and other quick-service restaurants
- 📅
Global economic slowdown or recession reducing discretionary consumer spending
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What Does Starbucks Corp (SBUX) Do?
Market Cap
$96.18B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Restaurants
Employees
361,000
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee worldwide. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, single serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. It partners with Global Food Banking Network support food security and reduce food waste. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Visit Starbucks Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Starbucks represents a high-quality, stable growth investment opportunity for long-term portfolios seeking consistent returns and dividend growth. Its dominant brand, expanding global footprint, particularly in China, and robust digital ecosystem provide a resilient business model capable of weathering economic cycles. It is not suitable for investors seeking 10x returns within 3-5 years due to its large market capitalization.
Is SBUX Stock Undervalued?
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SBUX Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$110.00
Bull Case
$125.00
Bear Case
$85.00
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on dips towards $90-$95. Consider initiating a position if market correction occurs.
Exit Strategy
For stable growth, hold long-term. Consider profit-taking at $120+ if growth slows materially. Stop loss at $80 for risk management.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, 1-2% for conservative portfolios seeking stable income and growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is SBUX Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
51.90
Price/Book
-12.48
Other
Dividend Yield
290.00%
Does SBUX Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
4 Identified
Starbucks' moat is highly durable, stemming from its iconic global brand, deeply entrenched customer loyalty via its rewards program, and massive global store footprint that creates efficient scale in purchasing and distribution. The 'third place' experience is difficult to replicate at scale.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Shift in consumer preferences away from premium coffee or towards at-home consumption
- •Intense competitive pressure from diverse players (boutique coffee, fast food, convenience stores)
- •Brand dilution from over-expansion or perceived quality decline
SBUX Competitive Moat Analysis
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SBUX Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral
Institutional Sentiment
Positive
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Routine selling (option exercises) with minor buying; no significant cluster activity observed.
Options Flow
Balanced call/put volume, indicating hedging and routine trading rather than significant directional bets. Some long-term call buying for upside protection.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-02 (Estimated)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Typically reacts positively to earnings beats driven by strong comps and outlook, with 3-5% moves. Misses, particularly on guidance, can lead to similar downside.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
MCD
Market Share Trend
Stable to slightly gaining in premium coffee, particularly in expanding international markets like China. Facing intense competition in mature markets.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a slight premium to the broader QSR sector on P/E, justified by its strong brand equity, global presence, and consistent growth profile. Comparable to other premium consumer staple brands.
Competitive Advantages
- •Globally recognized premium brand identity
- •Extensive and highly effective Starbucks Rewards loyalty program
- •Global scale and efficient supply chain
- •Strong third-place experience and store ambiance
Market Intelligence
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Earnings Call Report
Latest quarter — transcript highlights, guidance, and DVR overlay
Plain-language summary, key numbers, segment breakdown, and bull/bear signals from the most recent earnings call.
SBUX Latest Earnings Call Breakdown
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What Could Drive SBUX Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY26 Earnings Release (Estimated early-May 2026)
- •Launch of Spring seasonal beverages and food items (Q2 2026)
- •Further digital loyalty program enhancements and expansion
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Continued acceleration of store growth and market penetration in China
- •Strategic partnerships for supply chain efficiencies or new product categories
- •Ongoing operational efficiency improvements and margin expansion initiatives
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained global leadership in the premium coffee market through innovation and brand strength
- •Expansion into new consumer segments or adjacent beverage categories
- •Leveraging AI and data analytics to personalize customer experience and optimize operations
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for SBUX?
- ✓
Consistent positive global comparable store sales growth, especially in North America and China.
- ✓
Expansion of operating margins through operational efficiency.
- ✓
Growth in Starbucks Rewards membership and digital orders as a percentage of sales.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with SBUX
See how Starbucks Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Starbucks Corp SBUX | $96.2B | 0.5 | 51.9 | — | — | — | |
Coca-Cola Co KO | $339.2B | 0.5 | 24.8 | $48.9B | 27.8% | 5.1% | Compare → |
McDonald's Corp MCD | $221.1B | 0.1 | 26.4 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Starbucks Corp (SBUX)?
As of February 25, 2026, Starbucks Corp has a DVR Score of 0.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Starbucks Corp?
Starbucks Corp's market capitalization is approximately $96.2B. The company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Restaurants industry.
What ticker symbol does Starbucks Corp use?
SBUX is the ticker symbol for Starbucks Corp. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for SBUX stock?
Our analysis rates Starbucks Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of SBUX?
Starbucks Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.9. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Starbucks Corp pay a dividend?
Yes, Starbucks Corp pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 290.00%.
How often is the SBUX DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Starbucks Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on February 25, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for SBUX (Starbucks Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.