ONON Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
On Holding AG
Consumer Cyclical • Footwear & Accessories
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ONON Stock
We analyzed On Holding AG using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ONON through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ONON Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Intensifying competition from established athletic giants like Nike and Adidas, coupled with fast-growing niche players like Hoka, could significantly slow On's market share gains, especially if they release innovative, directly competitive products in mid-late 2026, leading to a deceleration in constant currency revenue growth below 15% and requiring substantial increases in marketing spend that compress the currently expanding EBITDA margins (21.0% in Q1 2026).
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Persistent insider selling by outgoing CEO/CFO Martin Hoffmann and another holder, totaling over $2.3M in value since March 2026, despite strong company performance.
- ⚠
Slight revenue miss in Q1 2026, where reported net sales of CHF 831.9M fell CHF 8.5M below analyst estimates, raising questions about demand forecasting.
- ⚠
Valuation remains highly sensitive to any deceleration in its impressive double-digit constant currency growth rates, especially given the competitive landscape.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 FY2026 Earnings Miss (Est. August 2026): If revenue growth significantly decelerates below 15% constant currency or gross margins contract due to inventory or promotional activities, signaling weakening demand or competitive pressure.
- 📅
Competitive Product Launches (Ongoing): Major competitors (Nike, Adidas, Hoka) launching highly anticipated products that directly compete with On's core offerings, potentially reducing On's market share gains or requiring increased marketing spend in late 2026 / early 2027.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if constant currency revenue growth drops below 15% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if Adjusted EBITDA margin consistently falls below 18% (from current 21.0%) for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Exit if the stock price breaks below $30, indicating a significant loss of market confidence.
Unlock ONON Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does On Holding AG (ONON) Do?
Market Cap
$12.33B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Footwear & Accessories
Employees
3,254
On Holding AG engages in the development and distribution of sports products worldwide. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for high-performance running, outdoor, training, all-day activities, and tennis. It offers its products through independent retailers and distributors, online, and stores. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Visit On Holding AG WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If On Holding AG sustains its 25%+ constant currency revenue growth, driven by successful expansion in Asia-Pacific and further penetration of its DTC channel, while maintaining Adjusted EBITDA margins above 20% through Q4 2027, then its premium valuation multiple is justified and could expand further, leading to a market cap of $40B+ (3-5x current market cap of $12.33B) if it reaches $4B-$5B in annual revenue with high profitability. This is bullish because the market currently appears to undervalue its consistent profitability improvements and rapid geographic expansion, indicated by its favorable PEG ratio despite competitive pressure.
Is ONON Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for ONON
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
ONON Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$85.00
Bull Case
$110.00
Bear Case
$55.00
Valuation Basis
47.2x forward P/E applied to estimated $1.80 FY2026 EPS, reflecting sustained growth and margin expansion.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $30-$35, targeting a pullback to previous support zones after the recent post-earnings rally.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profit at $85-90; implement a stop loss if Adjusted EBITDA margin drops below 18% for two consecutive quarters or if the stock price breaks below $30.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting strong growth potential balanced with competitive and insider selling risks.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is ONON Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
47.63
Forward P/E
33.10
EV/EBITDA
16.80
PEG Ratio
-7.16
Price/Book
9.10
Price/Sales
4.70
Profitability
Gross Margin
62.83%
Operating Margin
12.51%
Net Margin
6.76%
Return on Equity
13.52%
Revenue Growth
30.01%
EPS
$0.61
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.71
Quick Ratio
2.08
Debt/Equity
0.32
Cash & Equivalents
$1.00B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$359.50M
EBITDA
$566.63M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.10
Does ONON Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
On's brand durability stems from its Swiss engineering heritage, strong association with high-performance athletes (e.g., Roger Federer), and consistent innovation in comfort and design. Its proprietary CloudTec technology provides a unique selling proposition that is difficult to perfectly replicate, but competitive innovation remains a constant threat.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid product innovation by competitors: New cushioning technologies or designs from rivals could dilute On's perceived uniqueness and technological edge.
- •Shift in consumer preferences: Changes in fashion or performance trends, or a decreased demand for premium athletic wear, could diminish demand for current product lines and brand relevance.
ONON Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
ONON Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish (Strong brand appeal and product innovation generally foster positive retail investor sentiment).
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Positive (Previous upgrade from Raymond James, Q1 EPS beat suggests positive trajectory, though absence of current analyst updates and ongoing insider selling temper enthusiasm).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Outgoing CEO/CFO Martin Hoffmann has proposed sales via Form 144 filings totaling $1.76M (May 13, 2026) and $0.59M (Mar 6, 2026), alongside other recurring dispositions. Another holder also filed for significant sales (399,620 shares).
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual options activity provided in research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026 results)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Based on previous analysis and recent Q1 results, the stock tends to react positively to strong operational performance and margin expansion, particularly if EPS beats estimates and guidance is favorable, even with minor top-line misses.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
DECK
Market Share Trend
Gaining
Valuation vs Peers
Likely trading at a premium P/E compared to mature players like Nike/Adidas but potentially at a discount or comparable to high-growth peers like Hoka (DECK) or Lululemon (LULU) when considering its PEG ratio (0.70 from previous analysis).
Competitive Advantages
- •Innovative CloudTec technology: Differentiated product offering in performance footwear.
- •Strong brand strength and premium positioning: Appeals to discerning athletes and lifestyle consumers.
- •Agile DTC strategy: Allows for higher margins and direct customer engagement.
- •Global expansion: Rapid growth in key regions like Asia-Pacific (Q1 Asia-Pacific net sales +44.4%).
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive ONON Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2026 Earnings (Est. August 2026): If constant currency revenue growth exceeds 25% and Adj. EBITDA margin remains above 20%, it will confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
- •New Product Line Announcement (Est. Q3 2026): Launch of a significant new running shoe model or apparel collection leveraging CloudTec technology, potentially driving incremental sales of CHF 50M+ in the following quarter.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Asia-Pacific Market Share Expansion (FY2027 guidance, early 2027): If Asia-Pacific net sales growth continues to exceed 40% YoY for FY2026 and FY2027 guidance reflects this, it signals successful penetration into a key growth region, potentially adding CHF 200M+ in annual revenue run-rate.
- •DTC Channel Optimization (Throughout 2027): Continued investment and growth in DTC to push its share of total sales above 40% (currently ~38.7% in Q1), improving overall gross margin by 50-100 basis points due to higher profitability per sale.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Category Diversification (FY2028-2029): Successful expansion into adjacent sports categories (e.g., hiking, outdoor, general lifestyle wear beyond running) reaching 20% of total revenue, unlocking a new TAM of $50B+ and sustaining 20%+ annual revenue growth.
- •Global Market Leadership (2029-2030): Achieve top 3 market share position in premium performance running globally, driven by brand strength and innovation, leading to a valuation multiple comparable to established leaders (e.g., LULU, DECK) implying a market cap of $50B+.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for ONON?
- ✓
Monitor quarterly constant currency revenue growth — sustained growth above 25% YoY validates market expansion.
- ✓
Watch Adjusted EBITDA margin trend — consistent performance above 20% confirms operational efficiency and scalability.
- ✓
Track Asia-Pacific net sales growth — if it accelerates beyond 45% YoY for two consecutive quarters, it signals rapid market penetration.
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with ONON
See how On Holding AG compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
On Holding AG ONON | $12.3B | 8.3 | 47.6 | $3.0B | 6.8% | 30.0% | |
Amazon.com Inc AMZN | $2.9T | 2.0 | 32.3 | — | 12.2% | 14.2% | Compare → |
Home Depot Inc HD | $312.6B | 0.3 | 22.1 | $164.7B | 8.6% | 3.2% | Compare → |
McDonald's Corp MCD | $221.1B | 0.1 | 26.4 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Nike Inc NKE | $65.8B | 1.0 | 29.2 | $46.3B | 4.8% | -2.7% | Compare → |
Tesla Inc TSLA | $1.7T | 6.1 | 432.8 | $94.8B | 4.0% | 2.3% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How On Holding AG Makes Money
On Holding AG designs and sells premium performance athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily for running. The company differentiates itself through its patented CloudTec cushioning technology, which provides a unique running experience. It employs a hybrid distribution model, selling directly to consumers (DTC) through its e-commerce platform and physical stores, as well as through wholesale partners globally. This model allows On to control brand experience and pricing directly while also leveraging established retail networks for broader reach.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for On Holding AG (ONON)?
As of May 18, 2026, On Holding AG has a DVR Score of 8.3 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of On Holding AG?
On Holding AG's market capitalization is approximately $12.3B. The company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Footwear & Accessories industry.
What ticker symbol does On Holding AG use?
ONON is the ticker symbol for On Holding AG. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for ONON stock?
Our analysis rates On Holding AG's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ONON?
On Holding AG currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.6. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is On Holding AG's revenue growing?
On Holding AG has reported revenue growth of 30.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ONON stock profitable?
On Holding AG has a profit margin of 6.8%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the ONON DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of On Holding AG is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 18, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ONON (On Holding AG) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.