NTLA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Intellia Therapeutics Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NTLA Stock
We analyzed Intellia Therapeutics Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NTLA through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
NTLA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk is a regulatory setback for lonvo-z, such as a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA, which could delay its planned 1H 2027 U.S. launch by 12-18 months or more, significantly impacting the company's first potential product revenue stream (estimated peak sales $500M-$1B annually) and pushing out profitability.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
High
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Continued negative operating margins (Q1 2026 operating expenses $115.5M vs. revenue $15M) indicate substantial cash burn, requiring continuous funding.
- ⚠
Dependence on successful regulatory approval and commercialization of a single lead asset (lonvo-z) for near-term revenue generation.
- ⚠
Recent equity offering ($207M gross proceeds in April 2026) indicates ongoing shareholder dilution to fund operations, which could impact per-share value if not matched by future growth.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Regulatory delay or Complete Response Letter (CRL) for lonvo-z BLA (H1 2027): Could delay launch by 12+ months, impacting projected $500M-$1B peak sales runway.
- 📅
Phase 3 trial failure or unexpected safety signals for nex-z (MAGNITUDE/MAGNITUDE-2) (2028-2029): Would severely de-risk the second major pipeline asset, potentially impacting future peak sales estimates of $2B+.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if lonvo-z receives a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA delaying commercialization beyond 2027 or requiring significant additional clinical work.
- 🚪
Sell if cash and cash equivalents (currently ~$724M pro-forma) drop below $200M without a clear path to non-dilutive funding or profitability, signaling an immediate liquidity crisis.
- 🚪
Exit if Phase 3 results for nex-z fail to meet primary endpoints or show unexpected severe adverse events, significantly de-risking the second major pipeline asset.
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Investment Thesis
If Intellia's lonvo-z (HAE) achieves FDA approval in 1H 2027 and successfully launches, and its nex-z (ATTR) Phase 3 trials resume enrollment and generate positive results by 2028-2029, then the company is positioned to command significant market share in two large, underserved rare disease markets with first-in-class gene-editing therapies, potentially leading to multi-billion dollar annual revenues and a re-rating to 5-10x projected sales within 3-5 years, driving a 10x market cap increase from its current ~$1.8B. This is bullish because the market is currently under-appreciating the high probability of success for these advanced pipeline assets and the long-term platform value.
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NTLA Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$45.00
Bull Case
$70.00
Bear Case
$15.00
Valuation Basis
Sum-of-the-parts DCF factoring 50% probability of $1B peak sales for lonvo-z (HAE) and 20% for $2B peak sales for nex-z (ATTR), discounted to 2027 with a 12% WACC.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $10-$12 (near recent support levels) to capitalize on any short-term volatility.
Exit Strategy
Take initial 50% profit at $40-$50. Stop loss at $10.00 if regulatory or clinical setbacks occur.
Portfolio Allocation
10% for aggressive risk tolerance due to the high-risk, high-reward nature of clinical-stage biotech.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is NTLA Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-4.43
Forward P/E
13.00
EV/EBITDA
-5.14
PEG Ratio
3.98
Price/Book
2.33
Price/Sales
36.21
Profitability
Operating Margin
-636.56%
Net Margin
-597.04%
Return on Equity
-57.27%
Revenue Growth
45.04%
EPS
$-3.53
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
5.08
Quick Ratio
4.42
Debt/Equity
0.24
Total Debt
$210.20M
Cash & Equivalents
$375.99M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$348.88M
Free Cash Flow
-$354.66M
EBITDA
-$385.30M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.83
Does NTLA Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
1 Identified
The moat's durability relies heavily on the success of its lead programs (lonvo-z, nex-z) achieving regulatory approval and market adoption, as well as the continued expansion and protection of its patent portfolio in the rapidly evolving gene-editing landscape.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Patent challenges or expiry from other CRISPR developers.
- •Emergence of superior gene-editing technologies or delivery methods by competitors.
NTLA Competitive Moat Analysis
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NTLA Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish, with significant retail interest in the long-term potential of gene-editing therapies but awareness of clinical development risks.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with analyst consensus leaning 'buy/overweight' and recent upgrades, such as Jones Trading upgrading to Buy with a $29 target on March 4, 2026.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
The provided search results do not include Form 4 transaction details for the last 90 days, so specific insider buys/sells are not verifiable.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific data indicating unusual put/call ratio or large institutional blocks provided in the research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q1 2026 earnings led to a positive reaction (EPS beat, revenue beat, positive clinical updates). Biotech stocks are highly sensitive to clinical trial results and regulatory updates.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
CRSP
Market Share Trend
Gaining ground in terms of clinical development and regulatory milestones, with no current product revenue or market share.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a discount to the industry average on Price/Book (2.46 vs 3.13), suggesting potential undervaluation given its advanced pipeline, though direct P/E or EV/EBITDA comparisons are difficult due to pre-profitability.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary in vivo CRISPR/Cas9 delivery platform (LNP) for direct administration.
- •Strong IP portfolio around CRISPR-Cas9 for in vivo applications.
- •Clinical lead in specific indications like HAE with lonvo-z.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive NTLA Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 earnings report (estimated August 6, 2026): Focus on cash burn, R&D expenses, and updates on BLA progress for lonvo-z.
- •Completion and FDA acceptance of rolling BLA submission for lonvo-z (HAE) in H2 2026: De-risks approval pathway significantly.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •FDA PDUFA date and potential approval for lonvo-z (HAE) (expected H1 2027): Unlocks commercialization for a one-time gene edit therapy, targeting $500M-$1B+ annual peak sales.
- •U.S. Commercial Launch of lonvo-z (HAE) (H1 2027): Initial revenue generation for a first-in-class therapy, with market focus on initial uptake and patient access.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Initial Phase 3 results for nex-z (ATTR) (expected 2028-2029): Positive data would position Intellia for market leadership in ATTR amyloidosis, a potentially larger market (>$2B peak sales).
- •Expansion into broader therapeutic areas (e.g., in vivo for AATD, ANGPL3) with CRISPR platform (2028+): Diversification beyond rare diseases could unlock multi-billion dollar markets and sustain long-term growth.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for NTLA?
- ✓
Monitor lonvo-z BLA progress: FDA acceptance date and PDUFA date announcement.
- ✓
Track initial sales trajectory of lonvo-z post-launch in H1 2027: Look for patient uptake and payer coverage.
- ✓
Observe enrollment and key data readout timelines for nex-z Phase 3 trials: Signals continued pipeline de-risking.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with NTLA
See how Intellia Therapeutics Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intellia Therapeutics Inc NTLA | $1.8B | 9.1 | -4.4 | $57.9M | -597.0% | 45.0% | |
CRISPR Therapeutics AG CRSP | $4.4B | 8.6 | -7.1 | $3.5M | 0.0% | -97.6% | Compare → |
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc VRTX | $109.0B | 4.7 | 27.6 | $12.0B | 32.9% | 8.9% | Compare → |
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How Intellia Therapeutics Inc Makes Money
Intellia Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing novel, potentially curative gene-editing treatments using its proprietary CRISPR/Cas9 technology. It makes money primarily through collaboration agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies, which provide upfront payments, research funding, and potential milestone payments and royalties on future product sales. As its lead drug candidates like lonvo-z (for hereditary angioedema) approach commercialization, the company expects to generate product revenue from direct sales upon regulatory approval. The business model relies on leveraging its gene-editing platform to create a pipeline of therapies, partnering to share development costs and expertise, and ultimately commercializing these therapies for patients with severe genetic diseases.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Intellia Therapeutics Inc (NTLA)?
As of June 10, 2026, Intellia Therapeutics Inc has a DVR Score of 9.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Intellia Therapeutics Inc?
Intellia Therapeutics Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.8B..
What is the risk level for NTLA stock?
Our analysis rates Intellia Therapeutics Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NTLA?
Intellia Therapeutics Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -4.4. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Intellia Therapeutics Inc's revenue growing?
Intellia Therapeutics Inc has reported revenue growth of 45.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is NTLA stock profitable?
Intellia Therapeutics Inc has a profit margin of -597.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the NTLA DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Intellia Therapeutics Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 10, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NTLA (Intellia Therapeutics Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.