NMIH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
NMI Holdings Inc
Financial Services • Insurance - Specialty
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NMIH Stock
We analyzed NMI Holdings Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NMIH through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
NMIH Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk for NMI Holdings is a significant downturn in the U.S. housing market or a sharp increase in mortgage defaults, which would directly impact premium revenues and lead to higher claims. Additionally, adverse changes in government housing policy or GSE requirements could diminish demand for private mortgage insurance, severely impacting NMIH's business model.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Insider selling by an executive (Bradley M. Shuster) in Feb-Mar 2026, totaling over $4.3 million, might signal a lack of conviction at current valuations.
- ⚠
The cyclical nature of the mortgage insurance market exposes the company to significant macroeconomic risks.
- ⚠
The business model is not inherently disruptive or exponential, limiting the potential for outsized growth.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Unfavorable shifts in interest rates or housing market downturn
- 📅
Regulatory changes impacting private mortgage insurance industry
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if key housing market indicators (e.g., existing home sales, new mortgage applications) show sustained negative trends for 2+ quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if the company reports a significant increase in claims reserves or a substantial drop in net premiums written for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Exit if regulatory changes severely curtail the addressable market for private mortgage insurance.
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What Does NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) Do?
Market Cap
$2.96B
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Insurance - Specialty
Employees
228
NMI Holdings, Inc. provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. The company offers primary mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators. It serves national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Visit NMI Holdings Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
NMI Holdings offers a stable investment within the U.S. housing market, providing essential mortgage insurance with a healthy balance sheet and consistent profitability. Its disciplined underwriting and capital management position it as a quality operator in a regulated industry, making it suitable for long-term value investors seeking exposure to the housing sector's cyclical recovery rather than exponential growth.
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NMIH Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$42.33
Bull Case
$47.00
Bear Case
$35.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 12.1x forward P/E applied to an estimated FY26 EPS of $3.50, aligned with analyst median target.
Entry Strategy
Consider accumulation on dips towards the $37.00 support level (lowest analyst target) or if technical indicators suggest oversold conditions. Dollar-cost averaging in the current range may be suitable for long-term value investors.
Exit Strategy
For profit taking, target $47.00 (highest analyst target). A stop-loss order could be placed below $35.00, considering downside risk if market conditions deteriorate.
Portfolio Allocation
2% for conservative/moderate risk tolerance (due to stability, not growth potential).
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is NMIH Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.62
Forward P/E
7.78
EV/EBITDA
7.78
PEG Ratio
1.03
Price/Book
7.78
Price/Sales
7.78
Profitability
Operating Margin
74.78%
Net Margin
55.05%
Return on Equity
15.80%
Revenue Growth
8.52%
EPS
$4.92
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.57
Quick Ratio
0.57
Debt/Equity
0.16
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.62
Does NMIH Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is durable due to the highly regulated nature of the mortgage insurance industry and the substantial capital required to operate. These barriers make it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively. However, it's sensitive to government policy.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Changes in government policy or GSE mandates that could alter the demand for private MI or introduce new competitors.
- •Economic downturns leading to widespread mortgage defaults that could stress capital reserves.
- •Aggressive pricing from larger, more established competitors.
NMIH Competitive Moat Analysis
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NMIH Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Limited chatter for high-growth potential, generally seen as a stable financial play.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Positive. Analyst consensus is 'Moderate Buy' with moderate price targets; no recent specific upgrades/downgrades detailed in research but coverage from major banks.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Bradley M. Shuster (executive) sold 55,000 shares ($2.18M) on 02/18/2026, 19,557 shares ($0.78M) on 02/26/2026, 19,430 shares ($0.76M) on 03/05/2026, and 18,976 shares ($0.69M) on 03/12/2026. This indicates significant net selling by an executive over the past 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual activity flagged in the provided research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-30
Surprise Probability
Medium. While the company has a history of meeting or beating estimates, current consensus estimates are not provided, making it harder to gauge the surprise potential for Q1 2026.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, NMIH tends to exhibit moderate price reactions to earnings reports, with movements largely driven by changes in housing market outlook and interest rate sensitivity, rather than dramatic swings characteristic of high-growth tech companies.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
MTG (MGIC Investment Corp)
Market Share Trend
Stable to slightly gaining. NMIH has consistently grown its market share within the MI industry but faces strong competition from established players.
Valuation vs Peers
NMIH generally trades at a slight premium or in line with its direct MI peers (like MGIC and Essent Group) due to strong capital ratios and underwriting performance, but still within a relatively low valuation band typical for the financial insurance sector.
Competitive Advantages
- •Strong capital position and credit ratings, essential for regulatory compliance and market confidence.
- •Established relationships with a broad network of mortgage lenders.
- •Efficient underwriting processes and strong risk management framework.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive NMIH Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 30, 2026)
- •Movement in 10-year Treasury yields affecting mortgage rates
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Housing market recovery/stability and new mortgage originations
- •Potential changes in GSE (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) guidelines impacting MI demand
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained strength in the U.S. housing market and demographic tailwinds
- •Capital return initiatives (dividends, share buybacks)
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for NMIH?
- ✓
Consistent growth in insurance-in-force and new mortgage originations
- ✓
Maintenance of strong combined ratio and low delinquency rates
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with NMIH
See how NMI Holdings Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NMI Holdings Inc NMIH | $3.0B | 0.1 | 7.6 | $180.7M | 55.0% | 8.5% | |
Bank of America Corp BAC | $352.6B | 0.1 | 12.9 | $113.1B | 16.2% | 12.3% | Compare → |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Mastercard Inc MA | — | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Visa Inc V | $585.4B | 1.4 | 28.8 | $10.9B | 50.2% | 14.6% | Compare → |
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How NMI Holdings Inc Makes Money
NMI Holdings Inc. is a private mortgage insurance company that protects mortgage lenders from potential losses if a homeowner defaults on their mortgage. When homebuyers make a down payment of less than 20% on a conventional loan, lenders typically require private mortgage insurance (PMI). NMIH collects premiums from these homeowners (usually paid monthly as part of their mortgage) in exchange for covering a portion of the lender's loss in case of foreclosure. This service enables more people to buy homes with lower down payments while mitigating risk for financial institutions.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH)?
As of April 15, 2026, NMI Holdings Inc has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of NMI Holdings Inc?
NMI Holdings Inc's market capitalization is approximately $3.0B. The company operates in the Financial Services sector within the Insurance - Specialty industry.
What ticker symbol does NMI Holdings Inc use?
NMIH is the ticker symbol for NMI Holdings Inc. The company trades on the NGM.
What is the risk level for NMIH stock?
Our analysis rates NMI Holdings Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NMIH?
NMI Holdings Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.6. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is NMI Holdings Inc's revenue growing?
NMI Holdings Inc has reported revenue growth of 8.5%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is NMIH stock profitable?
NMI Holdings Inc has a profit margin of 55.0%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the NMIH DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of NMI Holdings Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 15, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.