MLI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Mueller Industries Inc
Industrials • Metal Fabrication
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About MLI Stock
We analyzed Mueller Industries Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran MLI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
MLI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Macroeconomic slowdown impacting construction and industrial demand
- 📅
Significant fluctuations in raw material (copper, brass) prices
- 📅
Worsening of US housing market conditions
Unlock MLI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) Do?
Market Cap
$13.09B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Metal Fabrication
Employees
5,168
Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Asia and the Middle East, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. The Piping Systems segment offers copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples; resells steel pipe, brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialties. This segment sells its products to wholesalers in the plumbing and refrigeration markets, distributors to the manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries, building material retailers, and air-conditioning original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The Industrial Metals segment offers brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods; cold-form aluminum and copper products; high-volume machining of aluminum, steel, brass, and cast-iron impacts and castings for automotive applications; brass and aluminum forgings; brass, aluminum, and stainless steel valves; fluid control solutions; and gas train assembles; specialty copper, copper alloy, and aluminum tube to OEMs in the industrial, construction, plumbing, refrigeration, utility, telecommunication, and electrical distribution markets, as well as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) markets. The Climate segment provides valves, protection devices, and brass fittings; and coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes to wholesalers and OEMs in the HVAC and refrigeration markets. This segment also manufactures and distributes high-pressure components and accessories, as well as insulated HVAC flexible duct systems. Mueller Industries, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee.
Visit Mueller Industries Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Mueller Industries represents a financially sound, highly profitable industrial company serving critical infrastructure and construction markets. While it offers stability and value through its discounted P/E and strong margins, it lacks the growth catalysts and disruptive potential for 10x returns, making it more suitable as a 'buy-and-hold' for stable returns rather than aggressive growth speculation.
Is MLI Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for MLI
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
MLI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$105.00
Bull Case
$135.00
Bear Case
$72.00
Valuation Basis
15.0x forward P/E applied to $7.00 est. FY26 EPS.
Entry Strategy
Consider accumulation on significant pullbacks towards the analyst target price of $105.00 or lower, seeking macro-driven weakness.
Exit Strategy
Profit-taking could be considered around $130-$135 if P/E expands significantly or macro tailwinds are strong. Stop-loss at $95 to protect against sector downturns.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for conservative to moderate risk tolerance, focusing on stable industrial exposure rather than growth.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is MLI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.50
Forward P/E
6.40
EV/EBITDA
8.69
PEG Ratio
0.27
Price/Book
6.43
Price/Sales
1.98
Profitability
Gross Margin
27.44%
Operating Margin
19.70%
Net Margin
15.92%
Return on Equity
23.84%
Revenue Growth
-0.10%
EPS
$5.41
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.29
Quick Ratio
3.24
Debt/Equity
0.01
Total Debt
$385.17M
Cash & Equivalents
$2.04B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$672.77M
Free Cash Flow
$465.30M
EBITDA
$756.05M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.03
Dividend Yield
1.20%
Does MLI Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
MLI's moat is durable due to the high capital intensity of its manufacturing operations, long-standing customer relationships, and established distribution channels in a fragmented, essential industry. While products are commodity-like, its scale and efficiency provide a competitive edge against new entrants.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense pricing competition in commodity markets
- •Significant shifts in raw material costs impacting margins
- •Prolonged downturns in key end markets (e.g., housing, commercial construction)
MLI Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
MLI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (due to mature industrial sector focus)
Institutional Sentiment
Mixed. Significant buys from Barclays PLC (+158.3%) and Banco Santander S.A. in Q3 2025, but a notable sale from JPMorgan Chase & Co. on March 20, 2026. Analyst median price target implies downside.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Scott Jay Goldman sold 4,430 shares on February 13, 2026, reducing his position by 9.61%.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no unusual put/call ratio or volume observed from available data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-28 (Estimated)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock tends to react moderately to earnings, driven by macro trends and profitability rather than hyper-growth announcements.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
No specific direct public peer provided, but competes with diversified manufacturers of industrial components.
Market Share Trend
Stable in its established, mature industrial markets.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a significant discount (39%) to the Industrials sector median P/E (15.37 vs 25.32), reflecting its mature, slower-growth profile.
Competitive Advantages
- •Established brand and market position in essential product categories
- •Efficient manufacturing and distribution network
- •Cost advantages in commodity production
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive MLI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q4 2025 Earnings Report (Estimated April 28, 2026)
- •Continued strength in US housing and infrastructure spending
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Sustained improvement in industrial end markets
- •Potential for strategic, accretive tuck-in acquisitions
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Long-term stability from essential product categories
- •Dividend growth and share repurchases as capital return
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for MLI?
- ✓
Persistent acceleration in housing starts and construction spending data
- ✓
Significant and sustained expansion of profit margins
- ✓
Announcement of a strategic pivot or entry into high-growth, non-commodity markets
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with MLI
See how Mueller Industries Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mueller Industries Inc MLI | $13.1B | 1.2 | 16.5 | $3.4B | 15.9% | -0.1% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
FAQ
What is the DVR Score for Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)?
As of March 24, 2026, Mueller Industries Inc has a DVR Score of 1.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Mueller Industries Inc?
Mueller Industries Inc's market capitalization is approximately $13.1B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Metal Fabrication industry.
What ticker symbol does Mueller Industries Inc use?
MLI is the ticker symbol for Mueller Industries Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for MLI stock?
Our analysis rates Mueller Industries Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of MLI?
Mueller Industries Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.5. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Mueller Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Mueller Industries Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.20%.
Is Mueller Industries Inc's revenue growing?
Mueller Industries Inc has reported revenue growth of -0.1%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is MLI stock profitable?
Mueller Industries Inc has a profit margin of 15.9%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the MLI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Mueller Industries Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 24, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for MLI (Mueller Industries Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.