MCRI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
Consumer Cyclical • Resorts & Casinos
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About MCRI Stock
We analyzed Monarch Casino & Resort Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran MCRI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
MCRI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company faces a significant $78.5 million litigation liability related to the PCL construction judgment. If the appeal is unsuccessful, this could result in a substantial financial outflow, impacting earnings and potentially requiring a re-evaluation of capital allocation strategies or even debt financing.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Significant $78.5M litigation liability which is material for a company of this size.
- ⚠
Inherent limitations of the regional casino industry for achieving 10x growth potential.
- ⚠
Lack of diversified revenue streams or disruptive innovation for exponential scale.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Unfavorable outcome of the PCL construction judgment appeal
- 📅
Economic downturn impacting discretionary consumer spending in regional markets
- 📅
Increased competition from larger, diversified casino operators
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
A clear loss in the PCL litigation, leading to a significant cash payment or balance sheet impairment.
- 🚪
Sustained decline in Adjusted EBITDA margins or overall revenue for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Significant insider selling of directly held shares (beyond tax-related withholdings).
Unlock MCRI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (MCRI) Do?
Market Cap
$2.08B
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Resorts & Casinos
Employees
2,900
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates hotels and casinos. It owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada; and the Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Black Hawk, Colorado. The company also owns separate parcels of land. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Reno, Nevada.
Visit Monarch Casino & Resort Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Monarch Casino & Resort is a well-managed regional casino operator with a solid balance sheet and strong operational execution, as evidenced by its recent Q1 2026 performance. It offers a consistent, albeit modest, growth profile and returns capital through buybacks and dividends. While not a 10x growth candidate due to its mature industry, it represents a financially sound company for investors seeking stable returns within the regional gaming sector.
Is MCRI Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for MCRI
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
MCRI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$118.00
Bull Case
$136.00
Bear Case
$88.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 20x forward P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $5.90.
Entry Strategy
Consider accumulation on dips towards the $110-$115 range, which may offer a more favorable risk-reward entry point, aligning with minor support levels.
Exit Strategy
Target profit-taking in the $135-$140 range. A stop-loss should be considered if the stock breaks below $105, especially on adverse news regarding the PCL litigation.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for conservative to moderate risk tolerance, reflecting limited growth but solid operational execution.
Price Targets & Strategy
Sign up free to unlock price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is MCRI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.04
Forward P/E
16.53
Price/Book
3.77
Price/Sales
3.80
Profitability
Gross Margin
55.48%
Operating Margin
24.65%
Net Margin
19.62%
Return on Equity
19.97%
Revenue Growth
5.77%
EPS
$5.89
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.86
Quick Ratio
0.74
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
$128.40M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.36
Dividend Yield
1.03%
Does MCRI Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is primarily derived from strong local brand recognition and the high capital investment required to build competing large-scale casino resorts in its operating regions. This creates barriers to entry and fosters customer loyalty over the medium term.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Economic downturns significantly impacting discretionary consumer spending
- •Increased marketing spend or aggressive expansion by larger national casino chains in its markets
MCRI Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
MCRI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, with some positive buzz around recent earnings but no widespread viral interest.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral, as total institutional ownership is moderate at 25.52% and no recent analyst upgrades/downgrades were provided.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
John Farahi (CEO) exercised options for 200,000 shares on Apr. 23, 2026, withholding 114,748 for taxes. Bob Farahi (President) exercised options for 66,667 shares, withholding 51,175 for taxes on the same date. These are option exercises, not open market purchases or sales of existing direct holdings, indicating a monetization of vested equity while retaining substantial indirect holdings.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no unusual put/call ratios or significant block trades identified in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-07-15
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Based on Q1 2026, the company has a history of beating consensus estimates, which often results in a positive short-term stock price reaction.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Red Rock Resorts (RRR)
Market Share Trend
Stable within its existing regional footprint; no data to suggest significant market share gains outside its core operations.
Valuation vs Peers
Likely trading at a valuation in line with or a slight premium to regional casino peers, reflecting its strong operational metrics and healthy balance sheet, but not at a growth premium for 10x potential.
Competitive Advantages
- •Established local brand loyalty and customer base
- •Strategic locations of its properties
- •Efficient operational management leading to strong margins
Market Intelligence
Sign up free to unlock sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis
What Could Drive MCRI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (Estimated July 15, 2026)
- •Resolution or update on PCL construction judgment appeal
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Sustained regional economic growth boosting discretionary spending
- •Continued growth in convention and group business segments
- •Further operational efficiencies leading to margin expansion
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Strategic acquisitions within contiguous regional markets (low probability of 10x impact)
- •Potential for new market entry if regulatory landscape shifts (highly speculative)
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Sign up free to see growth catalysts
What's the Bull Case for MCRI?
- ✓
Continued expansion of Adjusted EBITDA margins, indicating operational excellence.
- ✓
Positive resolution or favorable outcome of the PCL construction judgment.
Bull Case Analysis
Sign up free to see the bull case
Competing with MCRI
See how Monarch Casino & Resort Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc MCRI | $2.1B | 2.0 | 19.0 | $545.1M | 19.6% | 5.8% | |
Amazon.com Inc AMZN | $2.7T | 2.1 | 30.0 | — | 12.2% | 14.2% | Compare → |
Home Depot Inc HD | $307.8B | 0.5 | 21.7 | $159.5B | 8.6% | 3.2% | Compare → |
McDonald's Corp MCD | $221.1B | 0.1 | 26.4 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Nike Inc NKE | $65.8B | 1.0 | 29.2 | $46.3B | 4.8% | -2.7% | Compare → |
Tesla Inc TSLA | $1.6T | 5.5 | 412.1 | $94.8B | 4.0% | 2.3% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Monarch Casino & Resort Inc Makes Money
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. operates two primary casino resorts: Monarch Casino Black Hawk in Colorado and Atlantis Casino Resort Spa in Reno, Nevada. The company generates revenue by offering a full suite of gaming options, including slot machines and table games, complemented by hospitality services such as hotel accommodations, food and beverage outlets (restaurants and bars), and entertainment venues. Its business model focuses on attracting and retaining recreational gamblers and resort visitors in its regional markets, leveraging property amenities and loyalty programs to drive repeat business and maximize revenue per guest.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (MCRI)?
As of May 16, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc has a DVR Score of 2.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Monarch Casino & Resort Inc?
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's market capitalization is approximately $2.1B. The company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector within the Resorts & Casinos industry.
What ticker symbol does Monarch Casino & Resort Inc use?
MCRI is the ticker symbol for Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for MCRI stock?
Our analysis rates Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of MCRI?
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.0. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Monarch Casino & Resort Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.03%.
Is Monarch Casino & Resort Inc's revenue growing?
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc has reported revenue growth of 5.8%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is MCRI stock profitable?
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc has a profit margin of 19.6%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the MCRI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Monarch Casino & Resort Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 16, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for MCRI (Monarch Casino & Resort Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.