LUNR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Intuitive Machines Inc
Industrials • Aerospace & Defense
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About LUNR Stock
We analyzed Intuitive Machines Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran LUNR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
LUNR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Intuitive Machines faces substantial execution risk in meeting its aggressive 2026 revenue guidance of $900M-$1B, especially after the Q4 2025 miss. Failure to achieve these targets, coupled with persistent negative free cash flow and continued share dilution, could severely impact per-share value and investor confidence.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q4 2025 revenue miss of 24.1% and net income miss of 513% against estimates.
- ⚠
Full-year 2025 revenue decline (-7.9% YoY) despite being in a growth phase.
- ⚠
Persistent negative free cash flow (-$56.0M in FY25) with no clear timeline for FCF positivity.
- ⚠
Significant share dilution from the $350M stock component of the Lanteris acquisition and secondary offering registration.
- ⚠
CFO Peter McGrath sold $579,000 in shares on April 15, 2026.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or downward revision of 2026 guidance
- 📅
Further significant share dilution through capital raises
- 📅
Operational delays or failures in lunar missions
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Quarterly revenue misses 2026 guidance trajectory by more than 15% for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Company fails to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2026.
- 🚪
Further share dilution of more than 10% in a single quarter without significant offsetting revenue growth.
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What Does Intuitive Machines Inc (LUNR) Do?
Market Cap
$5.98B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
Employees
435
Intuitive Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and operates space products and services in the United States. The company provides delivery services for the transportation and delivery of payloads, such as satellites, scientific instruments, and cargo to various destinations in space, rideshare delivery, and lunar surface access; data transmission services, which include the collection, processing, and interpretation of space-based data, utilizing AI applications, such as, command, control, communications, reconnaissance and prospecting; and infrastructure as a service delivers space assets performing tasks and making decisions without human intervention that are designed to perform essential functions, such as, navigation, maintenance, scientific data collection, and system health monitoring. It offers Nova-C lunar lander combines flight-proven with a scalable design to meet the demands of the emerging lunar economy; Micro-Nova develops propulsive drone that is designed to land, deploy, and hop on the company's IM-2 mission; and Nova-D developed to transport critical payloads, including infrastructure services, such as fission surface power systems, lunar terrain vehicles, and rovers, enabling sustainable lunar exploration and development. In addition, the company provides lunar data network for tracking and communications network and a constellation of lunar data network satellites. It serves its products to the U.S. government, which include NASA, national security space, U.S. department of Defense, and state governments; commercial; and international customers. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Visit Intuitive Machines Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Intuitive Machines is strategically positioned to lead the burgeoning lunar economy, backed by successful missions, robust NASA contracts, and a significant expansion of capabilities through the Lanteris acquisition. While near-term financial performance has shown weaknesses and dilution is a concern, the aggressive 2026 revenue guidance and strategic vision offer substantial long-term growth potential in a high-demand, high-barrier-to-entry market.
Is LUNR Stock Undervalued?
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LUNR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$45.00
Bull Case
$60.00
Bear Case
$20.00
Valuation Basis
Based on a 6.7x forward P/S multiple applied to the midpoint of FY26 revenue guidance ($950M), resulting in an implied market cap of $6.36B ($6.36B / 159.37M shares = $39.90), plus a premium for market leadership and growth potential.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $25-$27 (previous support zones) given current volatility and upcoming earnings.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits around $45-$50. Re-evaluate if 2026 guidance is missed. Stop loss at $22.00 (below recent lows if momentum shifts).
Portfolio Allocation
7-15% for aggressive risk tolerance.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is LUNR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-7.60
PEG Ratio
0.08
Price/Book
-6.90
Price/Sales
10.50
Profitability
Gross Margin
4.28%
Operating Margin
-41.53%
Net Margin
-39.65%
Revenue Growth
-7.71%
EPS
$-0.71
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.96
Quick Ratio
4.88
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$14.32M
EBITDA
-$19.10M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.57
Does LUNR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is durable due to the high technological barriers to entry for lunar missions, significant R&D investment, and the deep, validated relationship with NASA, which creates high switching costs and a preference for proven contractors.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Emergence of equally capable or lower-cost competitors (e.g., Firefly Aerospace, Astrobotic).
- •Changes in government space exploration policies or funding priorities.
- •Failure of future missions could severely damage reputation and contract prospects.
LUNR Competitive Moat Analysis
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LUNR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish, fueled by the nascent space industry, IM-1 success, and strong future guidance.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, evidenced by Roth Capital's recent price target raise to $35 with a 'Buy' rating.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CFO Peter McGrath sold 24,554 shares of Class A Common Stock for approximately $579,000 on April 15, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity provided in research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-12
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Recent Q4 2025 earnings miss may lead to increased scrutiny; stock performance could be highly volatile based on execution against ambitious forward guidance.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
RKLB (Rocket Lab USA)
Market Share Trend
Gaining, especially in the niche lunar landing and services market, validated by multiple NASA CLPS awards and being the first private company to land on the Moon.
Valuation vs Peers
LUNR trades at a significant premium based on current P/S (28.46x FY25 revenue), but its forward P/S (6.3x on midpoint FY26 guidance) is more competitive, reflecting aggressive growth expectations, though still higher than some more established aerospace peers. Rocket Lab has a larger existing backlog and broader launch capabilities.
Competitive Advantages
- •First-mover advantage and proven track record in lunar surface missions (IM-1 success).
- •Strong, validated partnership and contract pipeline with NASA (CLPS program).
- •Vertically integrated capabilities post-Lanteris acquisition, expanding service offerings.
- •Proprietary technology and expertise in precision lunar landing.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive LUNR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (May 12, 2026)
- •Progress updates on IM-5 lunar mission and other CLPS tasks
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Successful execution of 2026 revenue guidance ($900M-$1B)
- •Achievement of positive Adjusted EBITDA for FY2026
- •New large CLPS or commercial space services contracts
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Expansion of lunar infrastructure and sustained human presence
- •Diversification of revenue streams beyond government contracts
- •Establishment as a dominant 'space prime contractor'
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for LUNR?
- ✓
Consistent quarterly revenue growth and margin expansion in line with 2026 guidance.
- ✓
Achieving and sustaining positive free cash flow, reducing reliance on dilutive financing.
- ✓
Announcement of significant new commercial or international lunar/space contracts.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with LUNR
See how Intuitive Machines Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Intuitive Machines Inc LUNR | $6.0B | 7.0 | -7.6 | $228.0M | -39.6% | -7.7% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Intuitive Machines Inc Makes Money
Intuitive Machines operates as a key player in the space exploration sector, primarily generating revenue by designing, manufacturing, and operating spacecraft for lunar missions. Its core business revolves around delivering payloads and providing data services for government clients like NASA, particularly through the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. With the recent acquisition of Lanteris, the company has expanded its offerings to include broader space services and infrastructure, transforming into a vertically integrated 'space prime contractor' capable of providing comprehensive solutions from satellite systems to mission operations for both government and commercial customers.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Intuitive Machines Inc (LUNR)?
As of April 19, 2026, Intuitive Machines Inc has a DVR Score of 7.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Intuitive Machines Inc?
Intuitive Machines Inc's market capitalization is approximately $6.0B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Aerospace & Defense industry.
What ticker symbol does Intuitive Machines Inc use?
LUNR is the ticker symbol for Intuitive Machines Inc. The company trades on the NGM.
What is the risk level for LUNR stock?
Our analysis rates Intuitive Machines Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of LUNR?
Intuitive Machines Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -7.6. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Intuitive Machines Inc's revenue growing?
Intuitive Machines Inc has reported revenue growth of -7.7%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is LUNR stock profitable?
Intuitive Machines Inc has a profit margin of -39.6%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the LUNR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Intuitive Machines Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 19, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for LUNR (Intuitive Machines Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.