GHM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Graham Corp
Industrials • Specialty Industrial Machinery
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About GHM Stock
We analyzed Graham Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran GHM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
GHM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk stems from the lumpy, project-based revenue model in defense. Significant delays, cost overruns, or unexpected cancellations of major contracts could materially impact quarterly and annual financial performance, leading to substantial stock volatility.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Lack of detailed current financial metrics in recent search results (requiring reliance on general knowledge of past filings).
- ⚠
Vanguard Group reporting 0% beneficial ownership due to internal realignment, potentially reducing institutional visibility/support.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Delay or cancellation of a major defense contract
- 📅
Supply chain disruptions impacting project timelines or costs
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue drops below $150M due to contract losses or delays.
- 🚪
Sell if defense backlog declines consistently over two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Exit if gross margin falls below 20% due to project profitability issues.
Unlock GHM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Graham Corp (GHM) Do?
Market Cap
$1.00B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Employees
636
Graham Corporation designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for chemical and petrochemical processing, defense, space, petroleum refining, cryogenic, and energy industries. The company offers power plant systems, such as ejectors and surface condensers; torpedo ejection, propulsion, and power systems, including turbines, alternators, regulators, pumps, and blowers; and thermal management systems comprising pumps, blowers, and drive electronics for the defense sector. It also provides heat transfer and vacuum systems, including ejectors, process and surface condensers, liquid ring pumps, heat exchangers, and nozzles; power generation systems, such as turbines, generators, compressors, and pumps; and thermal management systems comprising pumps, blowers, and electronics for the energy sector. In addition, the company offers rocket propulsion systems consisting of turbopumps, fuel, cryogenic, and nuclear propellant pumps; cooling systems, which include pumps, compressors, fans, and blowers; and life support systems that comprise fans, pumps, and blowers for the space industry. Further, Graham Corporation sells and services spare parts for its equipment. It operates in the United States, Asia, Canada, the Middle East, South America, and internationally. Graham Corporation was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Batavia, New York.
Visit Graham Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Graham Corp. represents a stable, defensive investment opportunity benefiting from a successful strategic pivot into the essential defense and nuclear sectors. Its strong competitive advantages, including specialized engineering and high barriers to entry, support predictable long-term revenue streams, making it a reliable holding for portfolio stability rather than a 10x growth play.
Is GHM Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for GHM
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
GHM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$105.50
Bull Case
$115.00
Bear Case
$85.00
Valuation Basis
Reflects 25x FY27e EPS of $4.22, driven by steady growth in defense and nuclear contracts. Upside assumes faster contract ramp-up, downside considers project delays.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging at current levels or on dips towards $90 (historical support band).
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $105.50, reassess for further upside based on backlog and guidance. Stop-loss at $85 to limit downside risk.
Portfolio Allocation
3% for moderate risk tolerance, given its stability but limited exponential upside.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is GHM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
67.11
Forward P/E
38.49
Profitability
Gross Margin
24.63%
Operating Margin
7.53%
Net Margin
6.28%
Return on Equity
11.90%
Revenue Growth
19.01%
EPS
$1.34
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.04
Quick Ratio
0.71
Debt/Equity
0.00
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.03
Does GHM Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Graham's moat is durable due to the specialized nature of its products, the stringent qualification processes required for defense and nuclear applications, and the long-term relationships built with critical customers. The cost and risk of switching suppliers in these mission-critical areas are extremely high.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Potential for technological advancements to disrupt existing product lines
- •Changes in government procurement policies or defense spending priorities
GHM Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
GHM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral - As a specialized industrial small-cap, GHM generally garners limited attention from retail investors or social media discussions.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Slightly Negative - Absence of analyst ratings and Vanguard's recent Schedule 13G/A amendment reporting 0% ownership (though for internal reasons) suggest a neutral to slightly reduced institutional presence.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Neutral - VP Michael E. Dixon vested 355 RSUs on 2026-02-04, withholding shares for taxes. VP William H. Zmyndak had an initial Form 3 disclosure of 3,473 RSUs. No open market buys/sells by CEO/CFO or other significant insider transactions reported.
Options Flow
Normal options activity - No specific unusual options activity indicating institutional positioning was identified in the research data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early May 2026 (for Q4 FY26, period ending March 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock typically reacts modestly to earnings unless there is a significant new contract announcement or a major miss/beat on backlog guidance.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
BWX Technologies (BWXT)
Market Share Trend
Stable - GHM maintains a strong, defensible position in its highly specialized niches within defense and critical industrial processes.
Valuation vs Peers
GHM typically trades at a higher P/E multiple than broader industrial peers due to its niche focus and higher barriers to entry, but generally lower than high-growth defense pure-plays due to its slower growth trajectory.
Competitive Advantages
- •Deep engineering expertise in vacuum and heat transfer technologies
- •Long-standing relationships and certifications with the U.S. Navy for nuclear propulsion components
- •High barriers to entry in defense and nuclear markets
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive GHM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q4 FY26 Earnings Report (estimated early May 2026)
- •New small-to-mid-size defense contract announcements
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of existing naval nuclear propulsion contracts
- •Synergies realization from Barber-Nichols acquisition
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Increased U.S. defense spending on naval programs
- •Diversification into new specialized applications within defense/nuclear
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for GHM?
- ✓
Acceleration in defense segment revenue growth and backlog
- ✓
Further expansion of profit margins due to favorable project mix
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with GHM
See how Graham Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Corp GHM | $1.0B | 4.1 | 67.1 | $238.0M | 6.3% | 19.0% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Graham Corp Makes Money
Graham Corporation designs and manufactures highly engineered vacuum and heat transfer equipment, and turbomachinery for critical applications primarily in the defense, power generation, and industrial process markets. They generate revenue by providing custom-built solutions for complex systems, with a significant portion of their business dedicated to naval nuclear propulsion and other specialized industrial processes. Their business model is project-based, relying on long-term contracts and their technical expertise to serve high-barrier-to-entry industries.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Graham Corp (GHM)?
As of April 14, 2026, Graham Corp has a DVR Score of 4.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Graham Corp?
Graham Corp's market capitalization is approximately $1.0B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry.
What ticker symbol does Graham Corp use?
GHM is the ticker symbol for Graham Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for GHM stock?
Our analysis rates Graham Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of GHM?
Graham Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 67.1. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Graham Corp's revenue growing?
Graham Corp has reported revenue growth of 19.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is GHM stock profitable?
Graham Corp has a profit margin of 6.3%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the GHM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Graham Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 14, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for GHM (Graham Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.