ELV Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Elevance Health Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ELV Stock
We analyzed Elevance Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ELV through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ELV Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The actual financial exposure from the CMS Medicare Advantage data reporting issue could significantly exceed the $935 million accrual, potentially leading to further large charges or fines that materially impact future earnings and cash flow beyond current estimates, causing investor uncertainty and a stock decline.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
The $935 million accrual for potential CMS Medicare Advantage data reporting exposure is a significant financial hit.
- ⚠
GAAP diluted EPS was down YoY in Q1 2026 despite adjusted EPS beat.
- ⚠
Benefit ratio increased by 40 bps YoY, indicating higher medical costs relative to premiums.
- ⚠
Membership declines in key segments like Medicare Advantage and Medicaid.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Negative resolution or higher penalties related to CMS Medicare Advantage data reporting exposure
- 📅
Significant increases in benefit ratio due to higher medical costs
- 📅
Adverse changes in government healthcare policy or reimbursement rates
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if the company significantly downgrades its full-year EPS or cash flow guidance.
- 🚪
Sell if the benefit ratio continues to rise above 87-88% for consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Exit if a definitive regulatory ruling imposes penalties significantly higher than the current accrual.
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Investment Thesis
Elevance Health is a well-established, financially robust leader in the mature U.S. healthcare sector, offering stable, defensive growth and reliable dividends. Its strategic focus on expanding integrated Carelon services, strong operating cash flow generation, and consistent capital returns make it an attractive holding for income-focused or conservative growth investors, though it lacks the disruptive potential for a 10x return within the specified timeframe.
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ELV Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$420.00
Bull Case
$455.00
Bear Case
$320.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 15.7x forward P/E applied to est. FY26 adjusted EPS of $26.75
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging between $350-$365, near recent support levels, to accumulate shares for long-term defensive positioning.
Exit Strategy
Consider taking partial profits if the stock reaches $420-$450. A stop-loss could be placed if the stock consistently trades below $330, indicating a breakdown in fundamental or technical support.
Portfolio Allocation
3-7% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting its defensive nature and stable growth profile.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ELV Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.44
Forward P/E
11.23
Profitability
Operating Margin
3.81%
Net Margin
2.62%
Return on Equity
11.95%
Revenue Growth
9.44%
EPS
$23.51
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.19
Quick Ratio
0.19
Debt/Equity
0.73
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.66
Dividend Yield
1.83%
Does ELV Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
4 Identified
Elevance Health's moat is highly durable due to the heavily regulated nature of the healthcare insurance industry, requiring immense capital and licenses to operate at scale. Its vast provider networks and brand reputation also create high switching costs for large clients and members, ensuring sustained market presence and profitability.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Increased government intervention or push for single-payer healthcare systems.
- •Potential for significant regulatory changes that could alter reimbursement models or operational requirements.
- •Intensified competition leading to pricing pressure and erosion of margins.
ELV Competitive Moat Analysis
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ELV Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Large, mature company; less retail discussion for high growth)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Positive (Q1 adjusted EPS beat and raised guidance likely maintain positive sentiment, but CMS accrual adds caution).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings reported in last 90 days (Feb 1-Apr 30, 2026); no CEO/CFO activity flagged.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual activity reported in the research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-July 2026 (for Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Elevance Health typically sees a modest positive reaction to adjusted EPS beats and guidance raises. However, significant non-recurring charges or regulatory news can temper enthusiasm.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
UNH
Market Share Trend
Stable (Mixed membership trends, with declines in MA/Medicaid offset by growth in commercial fee-based and ACA segments, leading to a small overall increase).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a comparable or slight discount to its closest peers like UnitedHealth Group on a P/E basis, reflecting its slightly slower diversified growth profile.
Competitive Advantages
- •Vast provider networks and established brand recognition across multiple states.
- •Significant scale providing cost advantages and bargaining power.
- •Integrated Carelon services offering a diversified revenue stream beyond traditional insurance.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ELV Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (Expected July 2026)
- •Further updates/clarification on CMS Medicare Advantage data reporting exposure
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Continued expansion and market penetration of Carelon services segment
- •Successful execution of 'whole health' integrated care models
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Demographic tailwinds for healthcare demand (aging population)
- •Increased adoption of value-based care models across the industry
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ELV?
- ✓
Acceleration in Carelon segment revenue growth rates above current trends.
- ✓
Consistent improvement and stabilization of the benefit ratio.
- ✓
Favorable resolution of the CMS Medicare Advantage data reporting exposure.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ELV
See how Elevance Health Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elevance Health Inc ELV | $80.9B | 0.8 | 15.4 | — | 2.6% | 9.4% | |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $276.2B | 0.3 | 22.9 | $113.7B | 2.7% | 1181.0% | Compare → |
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How Elevance Health Inc Makes Money
Elevance Health primarily generates revenue by providing health insurance benefits to millions of members across various types of plans, including employer-sponsored, Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and individual Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans, mainly in over a dozen U.S. states. They collect premiums from members and employers, then manage the associated healthcare costs. A growing portion of their business comes from their Carelon services segment, which provides integrated health solutions like pharmacy benefits management, behavioral health, clinical care, and digital tools, not only to their own insurance members but also to external clients, aiming to improve health outcomes and reduce overall healthcare spending.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Elevance Health Inc (ELV)?
As of May 1, 2026, Elevance Health Inc has a DVR Score of 0.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Elevance Health Inc?
Elevance Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $80.9B..
What is the risk level for ELV stock?
Our analysis rates Elevance Health Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ELV?
Elevance Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Elevance Health Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Elevance Health Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.83%.
Is Elevance Health Inc's revenue growing?
Elevance Health Inc has reported revenue growth of 9.4%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is ELV stock profitable?
Elevance Health Inc has a profit margin of 2.6%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the ELV DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Elevance Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 1, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ELV (Elevance Health Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.