CBOE Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Cboe Global Markets Inc
Financial Services • Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About CBOE Stock
We analyzed Cboe Global Markets Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran CBOE through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
CBOE Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
A sustained downturn in global trading volumes, potentially triggered by higher interest rates or a deep recession, could significantly impact Cboe's transaction-based revenues across its Derivatives and Cash/Spot segments. Given that trading fees are highly correlated with market activity, a prolonged 15% drop in average daily volume could reduce overall net revenue by $50M-$100M per quarter from recent record levels, impacting profitability.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Core revenue is highly sensitive to external market activity and trading volumes, which are cyclical.
- ⚠
Regulatory uncertainty in digital assets could hamper the growth trajectory of Cboe Digital, impacting future revenue streams.
- ⚠
Risk of disruption or failure to fully realize the $40M-$50M cost savings from the strategic realignment, which could hinder margin expansion.
- ⚠
Intense competition from other global exchanges and newer fintech platforms in various segments.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Market volume downturn (H2 2026 - H1 2027): A significant and sustained reduction in overall trading volumes across equity, options, and FX markets due to macro downturn, directly impacting Cboe's transaction-based revenue, potentially reducing Q2/Q3 2026 net revenue by 5-10% vs. expectations.
- 📅
Regulatory scrutiny on digital assets (ongoing): Increased regulatory hurdles or adverse policy changes impacting Cboe Digital's ability to expand and launch new products, potentially delaying or reducing revenue from this growth segment by 20-30% from current projections.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly organic total net revenue growth falls below 'mid-single-digit' for two consecutive quarters, indicating a slowdown beyond guidance.
- 🚪
Sell if adjusted operating EBITDA margin drops below 70% for two consecutive quarters, signaling deteriorating profitability.
- 🚪
Exit if Average Daily Volume (ADV) in key proprietary products (e.g., VIX futures) shows a sustained decline of 10%+ YoY.
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What Does Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE) Do?
Market Cap
$37.77B
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Employees
1,685
Cboe Global Markets, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an options exchange in the United States and internationally. It operates through six segments: Options, North American Equities, Europe and Asia Pacific, Futures, Global FX, and Digital. The Options segment trades in listed market indices. Its North American Equities segment trades in listed U.S. and Canadian equities. This segment also offers exchange-traded products (ETP) transaction and listing services. The Europe and Asia Pacific segment provides pan-European listed equities and derivatives transaction services, ETPs, exchange-traded commodities, and international depository receipts, as well as ETP listings and clearing services. Its Futures segment offers and trades in futures and other related products. The Global FX segment provides institutional foreign exchange (FX) trading and non-deliverable forward FX transactions services. Its Digital segment offers Cboe Digital, an operator of the United States based digital asset spot market and a regulated futures exchange; Cboe Clear Digital, a regulated clearinghouse; licensing of proprietary market data; and access and capacity services. It has strategic relationships with S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC; Frank Russell Company; FTSE International Limited; and MSCI Inc. The company was formerly known as CBOE Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Cboe Global Markets, Inc. in October 2017. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Visit Cboe Global Markets Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Cboe sustains its robust 'low double-digit to mid-teens' organic revenue growth and effectively realizes the projected $40M-$50M annualized cost savings through FY2026, it will drive consistent mid-to-high teens adjusted EPS growth, potentially re-rating the stock to a P/E multiple of 30-35x (from an estimated 28-30x) as it continues to expand its high-margin derivatives and data businesses, which is not fully priced into the current valuation of a typically 'mature' exchange operator.
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CBOE Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$472.50
Bull Case
$551.25
Bear Case
$393.75
Valuation Basis
Based on 30x forward P/E applied to an estimated FY2026 adjusted EPS of $15.75 (reflecting Q1 performance and raised guidance).
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on pullbacks towards the $340-$350 range, which may act as a short-term support zone following recent highs.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at the $470-$480 level for core positions. Stop-loss recommended below $330 if fundamentals deteriorate or market conditions worsen significantly.
Portfolio Allocation
3-7% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting strong fundamentals but limited 10x upside.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is CBOE Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.58
Forward P/E
29.70
EV/EBITDA
25.52
PEG Ratio
3.79
Price/Book
5.76
Price/Sales
6.12
Profitability
Gross Margin
54.11%
Operating Margin
33.78%
Net Margin
25.77%
Return on Equity
24.63%
Revenue Growth
10.61%
EPS
$11.76
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.87
Quick Ratio
1.87
Debt/Equity
0.28
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$1.44B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.39
Dividend Yield
0.79%
Does CBOE Have a Competitive Moat?
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🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
4 Identified
Cboe's moat is highly durable due to its critical infrastructure role in global financial markets, the extensive network effects of its exchanges that attract liquidity, and the high regulatory and technological barriers to entry. Proprietary products like VIX further solidify its competitive advantage, making it extremely difficult for new entrants to dislodge its market position.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Technological disruption from fully decentralized exchanges or blockchain-native trading platforms if Cboe Digital fails to adapt effectively.
- •Significant changes in market structure or regulatory frameworks that could erode competitive advantages or reduce trading volumes.
CBOE Competitive Moat Analysis
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CBOE Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Cboe typically garners more institutional than widespread retail attention; no strong social media trends identified).
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (Strong Q1 earnings beat, raised guidance, and effective cost management likely to reinforce institutional confidence and potentially lead to further analyst upgrades).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 insider transactions were provided in the supplied sources, suggesting normal insider activity or no significant disclosures within the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity provided in the research brief).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026 results)
Surprise Probability
Medium (Q1 beat was significant, raising expectations for future reports, but management's guidance is now more ambitious).
Historical Earnings Pattern
Cboe typically sees a positive stock price reaction to earnings beats and upward guidance revisions, consistent with a high-quality, growth-oriented large-cap financial services firm.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
CME
Market Share Trend
Gaining (Q1 2026 results reported record net revenue in Options, North American Equities, Europe, APAC, and Global FX, indicating robust competitive performance and market presence in key areas).
Valuation vs Peers
Cboe generally trades in line with or at a slight premium to peers like CME Group (CME), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Nasdaq (NDAQ), reflecting its strong proprietary product offerings (e.g., VIX) and robust options market share.
Competitive Advantages
- •Network effects and deep liquidity in core markets (options, VIX, FX)
- •Proprietary products and intellectual property (e.g., VIX index)
- •High regulatory barriers to entry for new competitors
- •Diversified global footprint across multiple asset classes and geographies
- •Strong operating leverage and efficient scale
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive CBOE Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (est. early Aug 2026): Confirmation of continued 'low double-digit' organic net revenue growth and realization of initial $10M-$12.5M in cost savings from strategic realignment.
- •Strategic realignment execution (Q2-Q3 2026): Achievement of targeted $40M-$50M annualized pre-tax cost savings, further boosting operating margins to near 75% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Cboe Digital product expansion (Q4 2026 - Q2 2027): Launch of new regulated crypto derivatives products, contributing an additional 5-10% to Data Vantage segment revenue.
- •Global derivatives market share gains (FY2027): Sustained double-digit growth in Cboe's European, APAC, and Global FX proprietary index options, leading to a 1-2% increase in overall global derivatives market share.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Cboe Data Vantage market leadership (FY2028-2029): Expansion of Data Vantage organic revenue to $1.5B+ annually by FY2029, driven by new data products and analytics tools, solidifying its position in financial information services.
- •New market opportunities (FY2028-2029): Successful development and scaling of new trading venues or asset classes beyond traditional securities, potentially through blockchain or tokenized assets, adding 10%+ to total net revenue by FY2029.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for CBOE?
- ✓
Watch quarterly organic total net revenue growth: sustained levels above 10% YoY, particularly in Data Vantage and Derivatives, supporting accelerated EPS growth.
- ✓
Monitor adjusted operating expense: ensure it remains within or below the lowered guidance range ($838M-$853M for 2026), confirming cost-saving effectiveness.
- ✓
Track Cboe Digital's new product launches and volume growth: acceleration to 20%+ YoY revenue growth would validate its long-term strategic value.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with CBOE
See how Cboe Global Markets Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cboe Global Markets Inc CBOE | $37.8B | 2.5 | 30.6 | $4.1B | 25.8% | 10.6% | |
Bank of America Corp BAC | $366.2B | 0.1 | 11.6 | — | 30.2% | 99.4% | Compare → |
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $831.2B | 0.9 | 14.1 | $177.0B | 33.3% | 109.0% | Compare → |
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How Cboe Global Markets Inc Makes Money
Cboe Global Markets operates a leading global exchange network, facilitating trading across various asset classes including options, equities, foreign exchange (FX), and futures. The company primarily generates revenue by charging transaction and clearing fees for trades executed on its platforms. A significant and growing portion of its revenue also comes from Cboe Data Vantage, which sells market data, indices (like the proprietary VIX), and analytics to institutional clients. Cboe is further expanding into digital asset trading through Cboe Digital, aiming to capitalize on emerging market trends. Its business model relies on market liquidity, proprietary products, and a robust technological infrastructure, protected by strong network effects and regulatory barriers.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE)?
As of May 21, 2026, Cboe Global Markets Inc has a DVR Score of 2.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Cboe Global Markets Inc?
Cboe Global Markets Inc's market capitalization is approximately $37.8B. The company operates in the Financial Services sector within the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry.
What ticker symbol does Cboe Global Markets Inc use?
CBOE is the ticker symbol for Cboe Global Markets Inc. The company trades on the BTS.
What is the risk level for CBOE stock?
Our analysis rates Cboe Global Markets Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of CBOE?
Cboe Global Markets Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.6. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Cboe Global Markets Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Cboe Global Markets Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.79%.
Is Cboe Global Markets Inc's revenue growing?
Cboe Global Markets Inc has reported revenue growth of 10.6%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is CBOE stock profitable?
Cboe Global Markets Inc has a profit margin of 25.8%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the CBOE DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Cboe Global Markets Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 21, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for CBOE (Cboe Global Markets Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.