BTM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Bitcoin Depot Inc
Financial Services • Capital Markets
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About BTM Stock
We analyzed Bitcoin Depot Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran BTM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
BTM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Despite positive TTM free cash flow and recent regulatory compliance efforts, the company reported a significant Q1 2026 EPS loss. If these operational losses persist and the high debt-to-equity ratio (4.72) is not addressed, the company could face a liquidity crunch or require further dilutive financing if cash flow diminishes.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
High
Competitive
High
Execution
High
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 EPS miss by $0.71, indicating significant operational losses
- ⚠
Debt-to-equity ratio of 4.72, signaling high financial leverage and risk
- ⚠
Increasing short interest (+37.9%) as of April 15, 2026
- ⚠
Historical scam allegations against the CEO (from previous analysis context)
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Continued significant EPS losses in Q2 2026 and beyond
- 📅
Negative regulatory actions specifically targeting Bitcoin ATM operations
- 📅
Further increase in debt-to-equity ratio without corresponding asset growth
- 📅
Failure to stabilize or grow revenue, confirming prior projected declines
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Sustained decline in TTM free cash flow below $15M for two consecutive quarters
- 🚪
Debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 5.0, indicating escalating financial risk
- 🚪
Failure to significantly reduce quarterly net losses by end of 2026
- 🚪
Regulatory action imposing significant fines or operational restrictions on core business
Unlock BTM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Bitcoin Depot Inc (BTM) Do?
Market Cap
$77.06M
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Capital Markets
Employees
126
Bitcoin Depot Inc. owns and operates a network of bitcoin ATMs in North America and Hong Kong. Its customers can buy and sell bitcoin through its kiosks in various retail locations, such as convenience stores and gas station chains; pharmacies and grocers; and mall operators. The company also sells cryptocurrency to consumers at a network of retail locations through its BDCheckout product offering, as well as its website. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Visit Bitcoin Depot Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Bitcoin Depot represents a high-risk, high-reward turnaround play in the volatile crypto-to-cash on/off-ramp sector. The bull case relies on successful execution of regulatory compliance (CCO appointment, ID verification) stabilizing the core ATM business, combined with the potential for BDCheckout to diversify revenue and provide a more scalable growth engine. Positive TTM free cash flow provides operational runway for these initiatives.
Is BTM Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for BTM
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
BTM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$14.45
Bull Case
$20.00
Bear Case
$4.00
Valuation Basis
Target of $14.45 based on 0.3x TTM P/S applied to $610M revenue, aligning with median analyst target.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging near recent support levels ($5.50-$6.00), or on significant dips towards the B. Riley PT of $4.20, given high volatility.
Exit Strategy
Take 30% profit at $10-$12, 50% profit at $14.45. Place a stop loss if price falls below $4.00, indicating severe business deterioration.
Portfolio Allocation
2-4% for aggressive risk tolerance, reflecting turnaround potential with high inherent risks.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is BTM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
87.99
EV/EBITDA
4.08
Price/Sales
0.39
Profitability
Gross Margin
18.85%
Operating Margin
6.70%
Net Margin
-1.01%
Return on Equity
-94.47%
Revenue Growth
7.17%
EPS
$0.99
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.26
Quick Ratio
1.23
Debt/Equity
5.10
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$57.76M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
3.14
Does BTM Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
⚪ None
Moat Trend
Eroding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
Low. The core business model is easily replicable by competitors or traditional financial institutions. Technology is not proprietary, and regulatory barriers are surmountable.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Increasing competition from online exchanges and other crypto service providers offering lower fees
- •Potential for large financial institutions or retail chains to enter the cash-to-crypto market
- •Technological shifts reducing the need for physical ATMs for crypto access
BTM Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
BTM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. The crypto sector often generates strong retail interest, but increasing short interest suggests a battleground stock.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral. Analyst consensus is 'Hold', with a median price target well above current price, but tempered by a Wall Street Zen downgrade to 'Strong Sell' and a low B. Riley PT of $4.20.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CFO David McLaughlin granted 110,526 RSUs on April 17, 2026, which is a compensatory award. No open market buys or sells reported by insiders.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, with no specific unusual institutional positioning indicated in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated mid-August 2026 for Q2 2026 results
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock opened down 6.9% immediately after Q1 2026 earnings, indicating sensitivity to negative surprises and missed estimates.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Coinbase (COIN) - While not a direct ATM competitor, Coinbase represents a more diversified and well-established player in the broader crypto financial services space, winning due to superior brand, wider offerings, and regulatory compliance infrastructure.
Market Share Trend
Stable to potentially losing ground due to prior regulatory headwinds and intense competition. Regulatory compliance efforts may stabilize market share.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at an extremely low P/S ratio (~0.12-0.13), indicating deep market skepticism about its business model sustainability and growth potential compared to broader fintech/crypto peers which often trade at much higher sales multiples.
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive physical network of Bitcoin ATMs for cash-to-crypto access
- •First-mover advantage in a specific niche for many users
- •Developing BDCheckout as a potential new revenue stream beyond crypto
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive BTM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (estimated mid-August 2026)
- •Successful and widespread implementation of per-transaction ID verification
- •Initial positive traction or partnerships for BDCheckout rollout
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Stabilization or growth in core ATM transaction volumes and revenues
- •Expanded BDCheckout partnerships with major retailers or online platforms
- •Favorable shifts in cryptocurrency regulatory clarity
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •BDCheckout becoming a significant revenue driver, diversifying from ATM focus
- •Widespread mainstream adoption of digital currencies for payments
- •Strategic acquisition opportunities leveraging ATM network
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for BTM?
- ✓
Acceleration in organic revenue growth above 10% YoY
- ✓
Consistent improvement in net profit margins towards positive territory and sustained positive FCF
- ✓
Significant reduction in debt-to-equity ratio below 2.0 within 18-24 months
- ✓
Demonstrated user adoption and revenue growth from the BDCheckout platform
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with BTM
See how Bitcoin Depot Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin Depot Inc BTM | $77.1M | 4.4 | 88.0 | $608.4M | -1.0% | 7.2% | |
Bank of America Corp BAC | $352.6B | 0.1 | 12.9 | $113.1B | 16.2% | 12.3% | Compare → |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Mastercard Inc MA | — | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Visa Inc V | $585.4B | 1.4 | 28.8 | $10.9B | 50.2% | 14.6% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Bitcoin Depot Inc Makes Money
Bitcoin Depot operates a large network of Bitcoin ATMs, primarily allowing users to convert physical cash into various cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) and, in some locations, convert crypto back into cash. The company generates its revenue primarily through transaction fees charged on these conversions. Bitcoin Depot is also developing 'BDCheckout,' a new service aimed at leveraging its cash-to-digital infrastructure to allow consumers to use cash to pay for online purchases or fund online accounts at participating retail locations, extending its services beyond just cryptocurrency transactions.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Bitcoin Depot Inc (BTM)?
As of April 29, 2026, Bitcoin Depot Inc has a DVR Score of 4.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Bitcoin Depot Inc?
Bitcoin Depot Inc's market capitalization is approximately $77.1M. The company operates in the Financial Services sector within the Capital Markets industry.
What ticker symbol does Bitcoin Depot Inc use?
BTM is the ticker symbol for Bitcoin Depot Inc. The company trades on the NCM.
What is the risk level for BTM stock?
Our analysis rates Bitcoin Depot Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of BTM?
Bitcoin Depot Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 88.0. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Bitcoin Depot Inc's revenue growing?
Bitcoin Depot Inc has reported revenue growth of 7.2%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is BTM stock profitable?
Bitcoin Depot Inc has a profit margin of -1.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the BTM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Bitcoin Depot Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 29, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for BTM (Bitcoin Depot Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.