BKSY Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Blacksky Technology Inc
Industrials • Specialty Business Services
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About BKSY Stock
We analyzed Blacksky Technology Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran BKSY through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
BKSY Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Despite significant new contract wins, BlackSky continues to operate at a net loss and burn cash. If the company fails to achieve positive free cash flow within the next 18-24 months, it may be forced to pursue another highly dilutive capital raise, which could significantly depress share price and erode shareholder value.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Persistent negative EPS (Q4 2025 EPS: -$0.44) indicating ongoing unprofitability and cash burn.
- ⚠
High P/S ratio (9.97) compared to sector median (5.886) without corresponding strong profitability.
- ⚠
Resignation of the Principal Accounting Officer, even if amicable, can signal internal accounting adjustments or increased workload.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or weak forward guidance
- 📅
Slower-than-expected execution or cancellation of major contracts
- 📅
Accelerated cash burn rate without adequate funding
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 15% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if the company announces a significant, highly dilutive equity offering (e.g., >10% dilution).
- 🚪
Exit if significant government contracts are delayed, reduced, or cancelled.
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What Does Blacksky Technology Inc (BKSY) Do?
Market Cap
$1.17B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Specialty Business Services
Employees
340
BlackSky Technology Inc. operates as a space-based intelligence company in North America, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company provides geospatial intelligence, imagery, and related data analytic products and services that include the development, integration, and operation of satellites and software platforms, and ground systems for government and commercial organizations. The company's Spectra software platform processes a range of observations from its satellite constellation and various external data sources, including imaging, radar and radio frequency satellites, environmental sensors, asset tracking sensors, internet-of-things (IoT) connected devices, internet-enabled narrative sources, and various geotemporal data feeds. It also offers a range of services related to object, change and anomaly detection, site monitoring, and enhanced analytics, which helps to detect key pattern of life changes in critical locations, including strategic locations and infrastructure comprising ports, airports, and construction sites; retail activity; commodities stockpiles; and other sites that contain critical commodities and supply chain inventory. In addition, the company develops and delivers satellites and payload systems; and provides professional and engineering services. Its products and services are used in national security, supply chain intelligence, crisis management, critical infrastructure monitoring, economic intelligence, and other applications. BlackSky Technology Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.
Visit Blacksky Technology Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
BlackSky is a leader in the rapidly expanding real-time geospatial intelligence market, uniquely positioned with its proprietary LEO satellite constellation and AI-driven analytics. Recent substantial contract wins, particularly with U.S. and international defense entities, provide significant revenue visibility and validate its core technology, de-risking its path to future market leadership and potential 10x returns as it scales towards profitability.
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BKSY Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$55.00
Bull Case
$75.00
Bear Case
$25.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 12x FY26 Revenue multiple on $145M (high end of guidance) = $1.74B Market Cap. Divided by 33.1M shares = $52.56, rounded up to $55.00 to account for growth premium.
Entry Strategy
Given the recent strong price surge (+42% over 30 days), consider dollar-cost averaging on pullbacks or dips towards the $30-$35 support range. A retest of the 50-day SMA would be an optimal entry point.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $65-$70 as a first target. A stop loss could be placed if the stock breaks below $30, indicating a loss of momentum or fundamental deterioration.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, reflecting the high-risk, high-reward nature of the investment.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is BKSY Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
55.20
Forward P/E
55.20
EV/EBITDA
55.20
PEG Ratio
55.20
Price/Book
55.20
Price/Sales
12.99
Profitability
Gross Margin
66.87%
Operating Margin
-47.89%
Net Margin
-65.93%
Return on Equity
-77.78%
Revenue Growth
4.39%
EPS
$-2.15
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.48
Quick Ratio
3.17
Debt/Equity
2.12
Total Debt
$455.00M
Cash & Equivalents
$320.00M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$15.00M
Free Cash Flow
$8.00M
EBITDA
$16.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.37
Does BKSY Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
BlackSky's moat is strengthening through its unique LEO constellation and AI-powered analytics, enabling a faster decision cycle than competitors. Deepening integration with government customers creates high switching costs. However, durability depends on sustained technological innovation and cost-effectiveness against emerging competitors in the rapidly evolving space and AI sectors.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •New entrants or well-funded competitors deploying more advanced or lower-cost LEO imaging constellations.
- •Rapid advancements in open-source or competitor AI/ML models that erode BlackSky's analytical edge.
- •Technological obsolescence or failure to keep pace with evolving customer requirements.
BKSY Competitive Moat Analysis
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BKSY Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish, fueled by recent contract wins and strong stock performance, but individual investor sentiment can be volatile.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to Positive. No analyst upgrades provided, but director stock compensation (in lieu of cash) and institutional holdings by BNY Mellon entities indicate some confidence. Recent contract wins are likely viewed positively by institutions.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Multiple directors (Susan M. Gordon, Abraham Magid, William D. Porteous) received 894 shares each as compensation for Q1 2026 services on March 31, 2026. No open-market buys or sells by CEO/CFO are reported.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual options flow data is provided in the available search results.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-07
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
No explicit historical pattern is provided, but market reaction for growth-oriented small-caps like BlackSky is typically highly sensitive to revenue beats, forward guidance, and progress toward profitability.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Planet Labs Inc. (PL)
Market Share Trend
Gaining, evidenced by significant new contract wins and expansion with both U.S. government and international defense customers.
Valuation vs Peers
BlackSky trades at a premium on a P/S basis compared to the sector median, indicative of its higher growth expectations and unique positioning within the geospatial intelligence market. Its valuation might be more comparable to high-growth SaaS or AI companies rather than traditional aerospace and defense.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation enabling rapid revisit rates and real-time insights.
- •Advanced AI and machine learning algorithms for automated analysis of geospatial data.
- •Deep strategic relationships and contracts with U.S. government intelligence and defense agencies (e.g., NRO).
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive BKSY Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report and Call (May 7, 2026)
- •Continued execution and revenue recognition from new $99M, $30M, and $25M contracts
- •Potential new satellite launches or constellation expansion announcements
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of U.S. government (NRO) contracts beyond initial IDIQ
- •Increased adoption by international defense customers
- •Development and integration of next-generation AI analytics capabilities
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achievement of sustainable profitability and positive free cash flow
- •Establishment as a dominant leader in real-time geospatial intelligence
- •Diversification into broader commercial applications beyond defense
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for BKSY?
- ✓
Acceleration in contract backlog and new deal announcements beyond current guidance.
- ✓
Tangible progress towards positive free cash flow and improved gross/operating margins.
- ✓
Updates on new satellite deployments and technological advancements in AI capabilities.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with BKSY
See how Blacksky Technology Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blacksky Technology Inc BKSY | $1.2B | 7.6 | 55.2 | $106.6M | -65.9% | 4.4% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Blacksky Technology Inc Makes Money
BlackSky Technology specializes in delivering real-time, high-resolution geospatial intelligence by combining its own constellation of Earth-imaging satellites with an advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning platform. The company offers its customers, primarily government and defense agencies, and increasingly commercial enterprises, on-demand access to critical insights and data through a subscription-based model. This allows clients to monitor global events, track assets, and make rapid decisions based on timely and actionable intelligence derived from satellite imagery analysis.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Blacksky Technology Inc (BKSY)?
As of April 30, 2026, Blacksky Technology Inc has a DVR Score of 7.6 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Blacksky Technology Inc?
Blacksky Technology Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.2B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Specialty Business Services industry.
What ticker symbol does Blacksky Technology Inc use?
BKSY is the ticker symbol for Blacksky Technology Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for BKSY stock?
Our analysis rates Blacksky Technology Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of BKSY?
Blacksky Technology Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55.2. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Blacksky Technology Inc's revenue growing?
Blacksky Technology Inc has reported revenue growth of 4.4%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is BKSY stock profitable?
Blacksky Technology Inc has a profit margin of -65.9%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the BKSY DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Blacksky Technology Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 30, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for BKSY (Blacksky Technology Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.