ARWR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ARWR Stock
We analyzed Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ARWR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ARWR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is a clinical trial failure or significant regulatory delay/rejection for plozasiran or other key pipeline assets currently in late-stage development. Since the company anticipates negative full-year EPS due to R&D for these assets, any major setback in the pipeline could undermine the significant R&D investment and significantly reduce its projected multi-billion dollar revenue potential in the next 3-5 years.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Anticipated negative full-year EPS due to R&D, necessitating careful monitoring of cash burn vs. pipeline progress.
- ⚠
Valuation at a premium, requiring continued flawless execution and positive clinical catalysts to justify current and future price points.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Plozasiran sNDA rejection or significant delay (H1 2027): Failure to gain regulatory approval or unforeseen delays in commercial launch for plozasiran would significantly impact revenue forecasts and market sentiment.
- 📅
Unfavorable competitive landscape emergence (Ongoing): Major competitors launching superior or faster-acting RNAi or gene-editing therapies in cardiometabolic space could limit Arrowhead's market share capture for plozasiran and other assets.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if plozasiran sNDA is rejected or Phase 3 trials for other key assets (e.g., ARO-APOC3) fail to meet primary endpoints.
- 🚪
Sell if net cash position falls below $400M without clear path to sustainable profitability or new financing, signaling unsustainable burn.
- 🚪
Exit if Redemplo commercial revenue growth decelerates significantly or declines for two consecutive quarters without market explanation.
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What Does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) Do?
Market Cap
$10.30B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
711
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials. The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy. In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Visit Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Arrowhead successfully achieves sNDA approval for plozasiran by mid-2027, effectively commercializes it alongside Redemplo, and delivers positive Phase 2/3 data for at least one other major pipeline asset (e.g., ARO-APOC3) by FY2028, then the company could reach an annualized revenue run-rate exceeding $3-5B by FY2029-2030. This would justify a market cap of $30-50B (at 10x sales), representing a potential 3-5x return from current levels, with additional pipeline successes pushing it towards the 10x target.
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ARWR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$105.00
Bull Case
$130.00
Bear Case
$55.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 15x projected FY2027 sales of $1.0B, resulting in a market cap of $15B, divided by ~140.8M shares outstanding.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $65-$70 (near recent support levels); accumulation below $70 is attractive for long-term investors.
Exit Strategy
Take 30-50% profit at $105-$110, re-evaluate above $125. Stop-loss at $60 (if sustained below 200-day SMA if not currently there).
Portfolio Allocation
5-8% for aggressive growth investors, 2-4% for moderate risk tolerance, given its biotech growth profile.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ARWR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.98
Forward P/E
6.74
EV/EBITDA
-7.42
PEG Ratio
0.89
Price/Book
2.11
Price/Sales
14.83
Profitability
Gross Margin
97.00%
Operating Margin
-35.67%
Net Margin
-48.38%
Return on Equity
-55.45%
Revenue Growth
14.09%
EPS
$-2.15
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.86
Quick Ratio
4.81
Debt/Equity
1.34
Total Debt
$152.90M
Cash & Equivalents
$1.21B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$204.00M
Free Cash Flow
-$233.00M
EBITDA
-$431.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.29
Does ARWR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is durable due to strong patent protection surrounding its TRiM delivery platform and specific RNAi constructs, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its targeted therapeutic approach without significant R&D investment and legal challenges. This technical advantage is enhanced as more drugs from the platform advance and gain regulatory approval.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Emergence of superior RNAi delivery technologies from competitors that could bypass Arrowhead's TRiM platform advantages.
- •Patent expiry or successful legal challenges to Arrowhead's core IP, potentially eroding its exclusive market access for key drugs.
ARWR Competitive Moat Analysis
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ARWR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish: Retail investors are generally optimistic about Arrowhead's RNAi platform and deep pipeline potential in high-impact disease areas.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive: Analyst sentiment is predominantly positive, with recent updates likely incorporating the strong plozasiran data into long-term models. No specific upgrades/downgrades provided in intelligence, but prior analysis indicated positive sentiment.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Normal activity observed, no significant buy/sell trends from the provided intelligence. (Based on lack of mention, assuming no unusual activity.)
Options Flow
Normal options activity (Based on lack of specific data, assuming no unusual activity that would signal institutional positioning beyond general market interest.)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q3 FY2026, fiscal ended Jun 30, 2026).
Surprise Probability
Medium: While Q1 FY2026 saw a revenue beat, continued high R&D spend means EPS can be volatile. Revenue from Redemplo is the key driver for potential surprises.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, the stock price tends to react significantly to clinical data readouts and regulatory milestones. Earnings beats on revenue from commercial products often lead to positive, though sometimes muted, short-term reactions, while pipeline news drives larger swings.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY): A leading commercial-stage RNAi therapeutics company, demonstrating successful development and commercialization of multiple RNAi drugs.
Market Share Trend
Gaining: With Redemplo's successful launch and the advanced stage of plozasiran, Arrowhead is in a phase of actively capturing market share in its targeted therapeutic areas.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium to some early-stage biotechs but potentially in line or at a slight discount to more established commercial RNAi players, reflecting its advanced pipeline and commercialized product, Redemplo.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary TRiM platform: Enables targeted delivery of RNAi therapeutics to specific tissues and cell types, enhancing efficacy and safety.
- •Deep pipeline of novel assets: A broad portfolio of RNAi candidates targeting a wide range of diseases, minimizing reliance on a single drug.
- •Established commercial infrastructure: Experience and presence in the market with Redemplo, facilitating future product launches.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ARWR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q3 FY2026 (fiscal ended Jun 30, 2026) earnings report (Est. August 2026): Watch for continued Redemplo revenue ramp and updated guidance on R&D spend and plozasiran progress.
- •Plozasiran sNDA submission (by year-end 2026): Confirmation of submission is a major de-risking event and validation of clinical data, signaling move towards potential commercialization.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Plozasiran regulatory approval (Est. mid-2027): FDA/EMA approval for plozasiran would unlock a significant market opportunity in severe hypertriglyceridemia, adding substantial revenue streams.
- •Phase 2/3 data for ARO-APOC3 (hypertriglyceridemia) or ARO-ANG3 (dyslipidemia) (Est. late 2027-early 2028): Positive clinical readouts for additional cardiometabolic assets could significantly expand TAM and pipeline value.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Platform expansion into new therapeutic areas (beyond 2028): Successful clinical translation of TRiM platform into non-hepatic targets or rare diseases, opening vast new revenue opportunities for future blockbusters.
- •Achievement of $3B+ annualized revenue run-rate (by FY2029-2030): Driven by Redemplo's continued growth, plozasiran's commercial success, and at least one other major pipeline asset reaching market, justifying a $30B+ market cap.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ARWR?
- ✓
Watch plozasiran regulatory approval timelines and initial sales figures; achieving blockbuster status (>$1B annual sales) within 3-5 years would be critical.
- ✓
Monitor Redemplo's quarterly revenue growth rate; sustained double-digit percentage growth indicates strong market penetration and commercial execution.
- ✓
Track progress of ARO-APOC3 and ARO-ANG3 through clinical trials; successful Phase 3 data for either would significantly de-risk the pipeline and add substantial future revenue potential.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ARWR
See how Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc ARWR | $10.3B | 8.4 | 11.0 | $274.9M | -48.4% | 14.1% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc Makes Money
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines using its proprietary RNA interference (RNAi) technology. This technology silences specific genes that cause disease, thereby targeting the root cause. The company generates revenue primarily through the commercial sales of its approved drug, Redemplo, which treats a rare disease. It also seeks to develop a deep pipeline of drug candidates for cardiometabolic and rare diseases, with the potential for future revenue from sales of these drugs, as well as from milestone payments and royalties earned through strategic partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
As of June 10, 2026, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has a DVR Score of 8.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc's market capitalization is approximately $10.3B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc use?
ARWR is the ticker symbol for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for ARWR stock?
Our analysis rates Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ARWR?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.0. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc's revenue growing?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has reported revenue growth of 14.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ARWR stock profitable?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has a profit margin of -48.4%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the ARWR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 10, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ARWR (Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.