ARWR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ARWR Stock
We analyzed Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ARWR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
ARWR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk stems from clinical trial failures or regulatory setbacks for its lead pipeline asset, plozasiran. Despite promising long-term data, any significant negative outcome in ongoing Phase 3 trials or a regulatory non-approval for the sNDA could severely impact the company's future revenue growth and market valuation, given the high premium currently placed on its pipeline potential.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Projected negative full fiscal year 2026 EPS (-$2.42) despite Q1 profitability, indicating continued cash burn from high R&D.
- ⚠
Current market valuation (P/E 39.89 LTM) implies significant future growth that must be consistently delivered.
- ⚠
Fair value estimate of $64.08 (based on 2028 projections) suggests current price of $69.25 already trades at a premium to some long-term analyst models.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 earnings miss (revenue or EPS)
- 📅
Unexpected delays or negative outcomes in ongoing Plozasiran Phase 3 trials
- 📅
Regulatory rejection or significant delays for Plozasiran sNDA
- 📅
New competitive therapies entering the market with superior efficacy or safety
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Failure of plozasiran to meet primary endpoints in any of its ongoing Phase 3 clinical trials (SHASTA, MUIR series).
- 🚪
FDA rejection or substantial delays in the review/approval process for the plozasiran sNDA.
- 🚪
Sustained quarter-over-quarter deceleration in Redemplo's commercial revenue growth without clear mitigating factors.
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What Does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) Do?
Market Cap
$9.70B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
711
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials. The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy. In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Visit Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is a high-growth biotech positioned to become a leader in RNAi therapeutics for cardiometabolic and lipid disorders. Its proprietary TRiM platform and robust pipeline, highlighted by the successful launch of Redemplo and positive long-term data for Plozasiran (with sNDA submission by year-end 2026), provide a strong foundation for substantial revenue growth and market share capture within the next 3-5 years. The company's strong net cash position supports continued R&D and commercial expansion.
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ARWR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$95.00
Bull Case
$110.00
Bear Case
$61.00
Valuation Basis
Blended valuation based on a 10x P/S multiple on estimated 2027 revenue of $1.0 billion (anticipating Redemplo growth and Plozasiran sNDA success) plus discounted value of early-stage pipeline.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards the lower $60s, aligning with analyst low-end targets and potential support levels. Initiate core position around current levels ($69.25) with additional buys on weakness.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $95 (12-month target) and re-evaluate upon reaching $110 (analyst high-end target). Implement a stop-loss order below recent support at $60.00 to manage downside risk.
Portfolio Allocation
8% for aggressive risk tolerance, reflecting high growth potential balanced against inherent biotech volatility.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ARWR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
47.94
Forward P/E
20.00
EV/EBITDA
-11.00
Price/Book
3.40
Profitability
Operating Margin
27.55%
Net Margin
18.54%
Return on Equity
36.12%
Revenue Growth
43539.24%
EPS
$1.54
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.86
Quick Ratio
4.81
Debt/Equity
1.34
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$277.87M
EBITDA
-$815.57M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.23
Does ARWR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is durable due to the high barrier to entry in RNAi drug discovery and development, the unique advantages of the TRiM platform for targeted delivery, and a growing portfolio of clinical assets. Continued success in clinical trials and regulatory approvals will strengthen this moat.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Development of superior or more cost-effective RNAi delivery technologies by competitors.
- •Clinical failures or safety concerns that erode confidence in the TRiM platform's broad applicability.
- •Intense competition from other modalities (e.g., gene therapy, small molecules) for cardiometabolic disorders.
ARWR Competitive Moat Analysis
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ARWR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No specific data provided in research, implying no significant positive or negative buzz).
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (Analyst consensus 'Moderate Buy' with an average 12-month price target of $81.67 and Piper Sandler recently raising its target to $110.00).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Insider trading activity noted on March 5, 2026, and a material event 8-K filed on March 9, 2026, but specific transaction details (names, amounts, buy/sell) are not provided in the research brief.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual options activity or put/call ratio data provided in the research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-11
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q1 2026 saw a significant revenue beat but an EPS miss, suggesting the market may prioritize pipeline progress and commercial ramp-up over near-term GAAP profitability.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
ALNY
Market Share Trend
Gaining (driven by the successful commercial launch of Redemplo and the advanced pipeline in large cardiometabolic markets).
Valuation vs Peers
Arrowhead trades at a premium price-to-sales multiple compared to more established RNAi players like Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, reflecting its earlier stage of commercialization and higher anticipated growth trajectory from its pipeline.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary TRiM RNAi delivery platform offering enhanced targeting and reduced off-target effects.
- •Extensive patent portfolio and intellectual property in the RNAi space.
- •First-mover advantage in certain niche indications like Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome (FCS).
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ARWR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (Expected May 11, 2026)
- •Plozasiran Phase 3 SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, MUIR-3 study completions (Mid-2026)
- •Plozasiran supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) submission to FDA (Year-end 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Potential Plozasiran regulatory approval for broader severe hypertriglyceridemia indications (Late 2027/Early 2028)
- •Advancement of other pipeline candidates (e.g., ARO-ANG3, ARO-RHO) into later-stage clinical trials
- •Expansion of Redemplo's commercial reach and market penetration
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Multiple RNAi therapies commercialized across diverse disease areas
- •Establishment of Arrowhead as a market leader in cardiometabolic RNAi therapeutics
- •Strategic partnerships for global commercialization of pipeline assets
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ARWR?
- ✓
Acceleration in Redemplo's quarterly product sales and associated revenue growth.
- ✓
Positive clinical trial readouts for mid-to-late stage pipeline assets beyond plozasiran.
- ✓
Successful regulatory approval and commercial launch of plozasiran for broader indications.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ARWR
See how Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc ARWR | $9.7B | 8.4 | 47.9 | $545.0M | 18.5% | 43539.2% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $403.8B | 0.1 | 171.8 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY | — | 8.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $150.6B | 0.2 | 19.4 | $62.6B | 12.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $276.2B | 0.3 | 22.9 | $113.7B | 2.7% | 1181.0% | Compare → |
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How Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc Makes Money
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company focused on developing a new class of medicines called RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics. These medicines work by 'silencing' specific genes that cause diseases, particularly those involving the liver, heart, and lungs. The company discovers, develops, and seeks regulatory approval for these drugs, then sells them either directly or through partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies, generating revenue from product sales, milestone payments, and potential royalties. Their first approved product, Redemplo, treats a rare genetic condition, and their main growth driver, plozasiran, is advancing towards approval for broader cholesterol-related disorders.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
As of April 21, 2026, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has a DVR Score of 8.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc's market capitalization is approximately $9.7B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc use?
ARWR is the ticker symbol for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for ARWR stock?
Our analysis rates Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ARWR?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.9. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc's revenue growing?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has reported revenue growth of 43539.2%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ARWR stock profitable?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has a profit margin of 18.5%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the ARWR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 21, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ARWR (Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.