ALNY Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ALNY Stock
We analyzed Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ALNY through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ALNY Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The successful commercialization of Zilebesiran for hypertension, a multi-billion dollar market, is a pivotal growth driver. If regulatory approval is delayed or denied, or if commercial uptake falls significantly short of expectations (e.g., less than $1B annual sales by 2029), it would severely impact Alnylam's ability to achieve its long-term revenue targets and dilute its 10x growth potential, potentially leading to a 40-50% decline from current valuation.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Morgan Stanley's downgrade of its price target from $495 to $408 on Jan 30, 2026, though still implying significant upside, indicates some analyst caution or recalibration of growth expectations.
- ⚠
High R&D expenses inherent in drug development, while necessary for pipeline, represent a significant cash outflow. Any failure in advanced-stage clinical trials (e.g., Zilebesiran Phase 3) could result in substantial asset write-offs.
- ⚠
Dependency on successful expansion of existing products (TTR franchise) and successful launch of new products (Zilebesiran) for continued triple-digit revenue growth.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Zilebesiran Regulatory Setback (2026-2027): FDA delay, complete response letter, or non-approval for Zilebesiran could significantly depress stock price, potentially 30-40% reduction, as a major growth driver would be curtailed.
- 📅
Increased Competition in RNAi or Hypertension (Ongoing): Entry of highly effective novel therapies for TTR-mediated amyloidosis or hypertension from competitors like BridgeBio, AstraZeneca, or Novartis could slow Alnylam's market share gains, impacting 2027-2029 revenue growth by 10-20%.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if Zilebesiran faces a definitive regulatory rejection or significant unexpected safety concerns in late-stage trials, implying a major pipeline failure.
- 🚪
Sell if quarterly total net product revenue growth decelerates below 30% YoY for two consecutive quarters, indicating a slowdown in commercial momentum.
- 🚪
Exit if the company reports a sustained period of negative free cash flow for two consecutive quarters without clear strategic investment justification.
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Investment Thesis
If Alnylam continues its robust commercial execution, particularly for its TTR franchise, and achieves regulatory approval followed by substantial market penetration for Zilebesiran in the massive hypertension market, generating $3B-$5B+ in annual sales from Zilebesiran by 2029, then it is poised to achieve $10B-$15B in total annual revenue against its current ~$39B market cap, leading to a significant valuation re-rating of 5-7x EV/Sales by 2030. This is bullish because the market may not yet fully price in the full commercial potential and market leadership opportunity of Zilebesiran.
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ALNY Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$463.13
Bull Case
$550.00
Bear Case
$250.00
Valuation Basis
55x forward P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $8.42, consistent with current analyst consensus and high-growth biotech valuation multiples.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $270-$290, targeting dips towards recent support levels or the 50-day moving average.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking 25-30% of position above $450; stop-loss at $240 to protect against significant downside.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate risk tolerance due to high growth potential and inherent biotech sector volatility.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ALNY Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
69.13
Forward P/E
34.18
EV/EBITDA
55.92
PEG Ratio
0.76
Price/Book
16.41
Price/Sales
10.43
Profitability
Gross Margin
80.83%
Operating Margin
16.55%
Net Margin
13.46%
Return on Equity
98.29%
Revenue Growth
82.57%
EPS
$4.18
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.76
Quick Ratio
2.51
Debt/Equity
3.42
Total Debt
$1.39B
Cash & Equivalents
$2.60B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$540.00M
Free Cash Flow
-$260.00M
EBITDA
$450.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.26
Does ALNY Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Alnylam's moat is durable due to extensive patent protection around its RNAi platform and approved therapies, the high cost and complexity of drug development (creating significant barriers to entry), and the therapeutic benefits that create strong physician/patient loyalty. The AI collaboration further extends this through enhanced R&D capabilities.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Expiration of key patents without sufficient pipeline replenishment or new IP protection.
- •Emergence of superior therapeutic modalities or highly effective competitors with novel mechanisms of action for its target diseases.
- •Regulatory changes or adverse clinical outcomes that challenge the safety or efficacy profile of its RNAi platform.
ALNY Competitive Moat Analysis
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ALNY Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral/Bullish, likely positive reaction to strong Q1 earnings and strategic AI collaboration.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, evidenced by 92.97% institutional ownership and Capital Research Global Investors holding 7.1%. Despite a Morgan Stanley target cut, consensus remains 'Moderate Buy' with a high price target.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 insider buys/sells were surfaced in the supplied results for the last 90 days. An 8-K on June 1, 2026, disclosed 133,427,910 shares outstanding.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, as no specific unusual put/call ratio or large block trades were highlighted in the provided research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early August 2026 (for Q2 2026 results)
Surprise Probability
High, given the significant beat in Q1 2026 (EPS $1.99 vs. consensus $0.87) and robust product revenue growth.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, Alnylam's stock tends to react positively to strong earnings beats and positive clinical/regulatory updates, aligning with its growth-oriented investor base.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Based on platform and disease areas, competitors could include Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) for antisense technology or AstraZeneca (AZN) for broad hypertension therapies, though Alnylam's RNAi platform gives it distinct advantages.
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share within its specialized TTR franchise and expanding into new markets, evidenced by 121% YoY revenue growth.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium on P/E and P/S multiples compared to mature pharmaceutical companies, which is justified by its higher growth rate, innovative RNAi platform, and significant pipeline potential. Valuation is more in line with high-growth biotech peers.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary RNAi Therapeutics Platform and extensive IP moat
- •Multiple approved products with strong commercial momentum (e.g., TTR franchise)
- •Strategic AI collaboration (Inceptive Nucleics) enhancing drug discovery capabilities
- •Deep scientific expertise and established leadership in RNAi
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ALNY Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late July/early August 2026): Continued 100%+ YoY product revenue growth, particularly for the TTR franchise, and sustained EPS beats against the $2.10 consensus would re-rate investor confidence.
- •Updates on Zilebesiran Regulatory Filings/Review (H2 2026): Positive progress or accelerated review timeline for the hypertension therapy would unlock a massive Total Addressable Market (TAM).
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Zilebesiran Approval and Initial Commercial Launch (Q1-Q2 2027): FDA approval and successful initial market entry in hypertension, targeting key patient segments, could lead to a revenue upside of $500M-$1B+ in the first full year.
- •Expansion of TTR Franchise into New Indications/Geographies (2027): Launch of Amvuttra into additional cardiomyopathy patient populations or new international markets, adding $300M-$500M to annual TTR revenue run-rate.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Zilebesiran Market Penetration & Blockbuster Status (2028-2029): Achieving $3B-$5B+ in annual sales from Zilebesiran alone by capturing significant market share in the hypertension space, driving overall revenue to $10B+.
- •New Pipeline Product Approvals Leveraging RNAi/AI Platform (2029-2030): Continued diversification and commercialization of new RNAi therapies developed through internal R&D and the Inceptive Nucleics AI collaboration, adding multiple multi-billion dollar franchises.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ALNY?
- ✓
Monitor quarterly TTR revenue growth rates – ideally sustaining above 50% YoY.
- ✓
Track Zilebesiran's regulatory milestones and early commercial uptake metrics (e.g., prescription growth, market share in target populations).
- ✓
Observe R&D pipeline updates, particularly advancement of preclinical/Phase 1 assets derived from the Inceptive Nucleics collaboration.
Bull Case Analysis
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How Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc Makes Money
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics, a novel class of medicines that silence specific genes to treat a wide range of diseases. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its approved products, which target rare genetic diseases like hereditary ATTR amyloidosis and acute hepatic porphyria, as well as more common conditions such as hypertension. Their business model involves extensive research and development, clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and then direct sales and marketing of their specialized medicines to healthcare providers and patients globally.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALNY)?
As of June 11, 2026, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc has a DVR Score of 8.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc's market capitalization is approximately $39.9B..
What is the risk level for ALNY stock?
Our analysis rates Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ALNY?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 69.1. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc's revenue growing?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc has reported revenue growth of 82.6%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ALNY stock profitable?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc has a profit margin of 13.5%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the ALNY DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 11, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.