AMTM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Amentum Holdings Inc
Industrials • Specialty Business Services
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AMTM Stock
We analyzed Amentum Holdings Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AMTM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
AMTM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Amentum's growth is heavily tied to securing and executing large, long-term government contracts. A significant slowdown in new contract awards, coupled with its already low current profitability (implied by high TTM P/E), could severely limit earnings expansion and prevent any substantial stock appreciation.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Conflicting TTM profitability data and a very high TTM P/E (99.91) suggest low current earnings quality.
- ⚠
Reliance on often low-margin, long-cycle government contracts makes exponential growth challenging for a company of this scale.
- ⚠
Lack of detailed current financial metrics (margins, cash flow, balance sheet ratios) in available real-time data makes a comprehensive financial health assessment difficult.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Government budget cuts or sequestration impacting federal contracts
- 📅
Failure to win anticipated large-scale contracts or renewals
- 📅
Operational issues or cost overruns on critical projects
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if the company loses a major multi-year government contract (e.g., UK SMR or CAL FIRE).
- 🚪
Sell if new contract awards decline significantly for two consecutive quarters, signaling a weakening pipeline.
- 🚪
Exit if forward guidance indicates a substantial decrease in expected revenue growth or margin compression.
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What Does Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM) Do?
Market Cap
$6.41B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Specialty Business Services
Employees
50,000
Amentum Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of engineering and technology solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions. The company offers digital and data-driven solutions, including intelligence analytics, space system development, cybersecurity, and IT to the federal government and commercial clients. It also provides large-scale environmental remediation, nuclear power solutions, platform engineering, sustainment, and supply chain management for the U.S. government and allied nations. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia.
Visit Amentum Holdings Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Amentum Holdings is a resilient government services provider making strategic inroads into higher-value, long-term growth segments like nuclear SMR technology and specialized emergency response. These efforts, combined with stable core operations, position the company for consistent, albeit moderate, growth and margin expansion, underpinned by a strong competitive moat within its niche government markets.
Is AMTM Stock Undervalued?
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AMTM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$31.25
Bull Case
$35.00
Bear Case
$24.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 13x forward P/E applied to $2.40 est. FY26 EPS (implied by current price and forward P/E of 11.16, plus modest growth).
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $25.00-$26.50, seeking stability after recent contract news, targeting prior support levels.
Exit Strategy
Consider profit-taking at $31-$32; stop loss at $24.00 if significant negative news or contract losses emerge.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for a moderate risk tolerance, given its stability but limited 10x upside.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AMTM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
65.44
PEG Ratio
0.67
Price/Book
1.41
Price/Sales
0.45
Profitability
Gross Margin
10.40%
Operating Margin
3.33%
Net Margin
0.69%
Return on Equity
2.18%
Revenue Growth
71.59%
EPS
$0.40
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.32
Quick Ratio
1.25
Debt/Equity
0.88
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.51
Does AMTM Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is durable due to the critical nature of the services provided to government clients, strict regulatory requirements, and the high cost and risk associated with switching providers for complex projects.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Significant government budget cuts or shifts in spending priorities.
- •Increased competition from other large government contractors or specialized entrants.
- •Failure to attract and retain highly specialized technical talent.
AMTM Competitive Moat Analysis
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AMTM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No specific data available for real-time social media sentiment)
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (Analyst consensus 'Buy' with a modest price target; UBS maintained 'Neutral' post-Q1 earnings).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Generic insider trading activity noted Mar 4, 2026; no specific names, titles, shares, or values provided. No CEO/CFO activity flagged.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual options activity or put/call ratio direction available)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-July 2026 (for Q2 FY2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Likely mild reaction on beats or misses, typical for a stable government services sector, unless there's a significant shift in guidance or major contract news.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
LEIDOS (LDOS)
Market Share Trend
Stable in core government services, gaining market share in specialized, higher-value niches (e.g., SMR, aerial firefighting).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a very high TTM P/E (99.91) compared to peers, but a lower forward P/E (11.16), suggesting analysts expect significant future EPS improvement. This implies a discount on forward earnings, but without detailed growth assumptions, it's hard to justify.
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive experience and specialized expertise in complex government projects
- •High barriers to entry due to security clearances and long-term relationships
- •Ability to manage large-scale, mission-critical infrastructure and environmental programs
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AMTM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2026 Earnings (Estimated early-July 2026)
- •Continued execution and progress updates on CAL FIRE contract (Next 6-12 months)
- •Further operational milestones for UK SMR program
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of specialized services portfolio into new government agencies/sectors
- •Strategic partnerships for emerging defense/energy technologies
- •Increased funding for space infrastructure and nuclear energy initiatives
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Global demand for small modular reactor (SMR) technology beyond the UK
- •Major shifts in U.S. defense or infrastructure spending policies
- •Significant market share gains in specialized environmental cleanup or logistics
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AMTM?
- ✓
Acceleration in revenue growth from newly acquired specialized contracts (e.g., SMR, CAL FIRE).
- ✓
Clear evidence of gross and operating margin expansion over consecutive quarters.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with AMTM
See how Amentum Holdings Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amentum Holdings Inc AMTM | $6.4B | 3.5 | 65.4 | $14.2B | 0.7% | 71.6% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Amentum Holdings Inc Makes Money
Amentum Holdings provides a broad range of mission-critical support services and technical solutions primarily to U.S. and allied governments. This includes managing and operating sensitive government facilities, conducting nuclear waste cleanup, providing specialized engineering for defense and space programs (like NASA's Artemis missions), and increasingly, offering specialized emergency response services such as aerial firefighting. They generate revenue through long-term contracts, acting as a trusted, expert partner for complex governmental needs.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM)?
As of April 13, 2026, Amentum Holdings Inc has a DVR Score of 3.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Amentum Holdings Inc?
Amentum Holdings Inc's market capitalization is approximately $6.4B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Specialty Business Services industry.
What ticker symbol does Amentum Holdings Inc use?
AMTM is the ticker symbol for Amentum Holdings Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for AMTM stock?
Our analysis rates Amentum Holdings Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AMTM?
Amentum Holdings Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 65.4. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Amentum Holdings Inc's revenue growing?
Amentum Holdings Inc has reported revenue growth of 71.6%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is AMTM stock profitable?
Amentum Holdings Inc has a profit margin of 0.7%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the AMTM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Amentum Holdings Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 13, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AMTM (Amentum Holdings Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.