AMPX Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Amprius Technologies Inc
Industrials • Electrical Equipment & Parts
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About AMPX Stock
We analyzed Amprius Technologies Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran AMPX through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
AMPX Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company faces substantial financial risk due to its significant cash burn and the ongoing capital requirements needed to scale up its Gigafactory. Failure to secure timely and non-dilutive financing, or delays in reaching production targets, could severely impact its liquidity and growth trajectory, potentially leading to further large-scale dilution or even financial distress.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Operating at a significant net loss with negative EPS forecasts (-$7 for FY2026)
- ⚠
Substantial capital requirements for Gigafactory scale-up implying future dilution
- ⚠
Auditor transition (BDO to Deloitte) can signal increased scrutiny, though opinions were clean
- ⚠
Reliance on future large-scale adoption of unproven Gigafactory production
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or weak forward guidance
- 📅
Delays or cost overruns in Gigafactory construction/commissioning
- 📅
Increased competitive pressures or alternative battery chemistry breakthroughs
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if Q1 2026 revenue or FY2026 guidance is significantly below analyst estimates ($126M)
- 🚪
Sell if cash runway falls below 12 months without a clear, favorable funding plan
- 🚪
Exit if a major customer contract is lost or Gigafactory production ramp-up faces prolonged delays
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What Does Amprius Technologies Inc (AMPX) Do?
Market Cap
$2.86B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Electrical Equipment & Parts
Employees
99
Amprius Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets lithium-ion batteries for mobility applications. The company offers silicon anode lithium-ion batteries under the SiCore and SiMaxx product platforms. Its batteries are primarily used for existing and emerging aviation applications, including unmanned aerial systems, such as drones and high-altitude pseudo satellites. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Visit Amprius Technologies Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Amprius Technologies is a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity poised for potentially massive growth due to its proprietary silicon nanowire anode technology, which offers superior energy density crucial for high-performance applications like aerospace, defense, and potentially EVs. Successful scale-up of its Gigafactory and continued customer adoption, supported by the ongoing validation of its technology, are the primary drivers for achieving future market leadership and a significant re-rating of its valuation.
Is AMPX Stock Undervalued?
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AMPX Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$45.00
Bull Case
$80.00
Bear Case
$18.00
Valuation Basis
25x forward P/S applied to estimated FY2027 revenue of $250M.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $20-$25, seeking consolidation around recent support levels ahead of Q1 earnings.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $45, consider full exit if stock drops below $18 (loss of major support) or if cash runway concerns materialize.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is AMPX Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-61.20
Forward P/E
318.33
Price/Book
19.47
Price/Sales
30.61
Profitability
Gross Margin
11.32%
Operating Margin
-63.89%
Net Margin
-60.30%
Return on Equity
-49.74%
Revenue Growth
202.11%
EPS
$-0.35
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
7.08
Quick Ratio
6.40
Debt/Equity
0.38
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$31.00M
EBITDA
-$33.92M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.22
Does AMPX Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is primarily built on its leading-edge silicon nanowire technology. Its durability hinges on continued R&D innovation, robust patent protection, and the successful, cost-effective scaling of production to fend off competitors and potential alternative battery technologies.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •R&D breakthroughs from competitors in alternative battery chemistries
- •Inability to scale manufacturing efficiently or meet demand/cost targets
- •Potential commoditization of battery components over time
AMPX Competitive Moat Analysis
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AMPX Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Emerging Bullish (typical for high-tech, high-growth narratives, though no specific data provided)
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (Jane Street Group's 5.1% stake, analyst coverage by 10 firms, though no specific ratings provided)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 filings reported in the last 90 days, alleviating previous concerns about immediate insider selling. Jane Street Group disclosed 5.1% shared beneficial ownership on April 28, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity identified in research)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-07
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
For pre-profit, high-growth companies, stock reaction typically depends on revenue beats, cash burn trajectory, and most importantly, future guidance and operational milestones (e.g., Gigafactory progress).
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
QuantumScape (QS)
Market Share Trend
Gaining (Implied leadership in silicon-anode niche, growing customer engagements, and capacity build-out)
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a significant premium on P/S (22.7x for 2026 est. revenue) due to disruptive technology and high growth potential, which is common for innovators in the advanced battery sector.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary silicon nanowire anode technology offering superior energy density
- •Strong validation from high-performance sectors (aerospace, defense)
- •Early mover advantage and established customer engagements in its niche
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive AMPX Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings on 2026-05-07 (guidance for Gigafactory progress)
- •2026 Annual Stockholder Meeting on 2026-06-11 (corporate governance updates)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Major customer contract announcements (e.g., significant aerospace/defense orders)
- •Key Gigafactory capacity expansion milestones and production ramp-up
- •Strategic partnerships in EV or consumer electronics sectors
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving market leadership in next-gen silicon anode battery technology
- •Broad adoption of silicon nanowire batteries in mainstream EVs
- •Sustained profitability through scaled-up manufacturing
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for AMPX?
- ✓
Acceleration in quarterly revenue growth and improving gross margins
- ✓
Announcement of new, significant purchase orders or strategic partnerships
- ✓
Clear and positive updates on Gigafactory capacity expansion and production efficiency
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with AMPX
See how Amprius Technologies Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amprius Technologies Inc AMPX | $2.9B | 7.2 | -61.2 | $44.8M | -60.3% | 202.1% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | $407.0B | 0.1 | 45.8 | $64.8B | 13.1% | 4.3% | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc HON | $134.7B | 1.5 | 29.8 | $37.4B | 11.4% | 3.6% | Compare → |
RTX Corp RTX | — | 0.1 | 5.0 | $88.6B | 7.6% | 0.0% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Amprius Technologies Inc Makes Money
Amprius Technologies develops and manufactures advanced lithium-ion batteries utilizing its proprietary silicon nanowire anode technology. It generates revenue by selling these high-performance battery cells, primarily to customers in the aerospace, defense, and high-end drone markets, with ambitions to expand into electric vehicles. The company's business model is centered on delivering superior energy density and power performance, commanding a premium for its differentiated technology to meet the demanding requirements of its niche.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Amprius Technologies Inc (AMPX)?
As of May 3, 2026, Amprius Technologies Inc has a DVR Score of 7.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Amprius Technologies Inc?
Amprius Technologies Inc's market capitalization is approximately $2.9B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry.
What ticker symbol does Amprius Technologies Inc use?
AMPX is the ticker symbol for Amprius Technologies Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for AMPX stock?
Our analysis rates Amprius Technologies Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of AMPX?
Amprius Technologies Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -61.2. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Amprius Technologies Inc's revenue growing?
Amprius Technologies Inc has reported revenue growth of 202.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is AMPX stock profitable?
Amprius Technologies Inc has a profit margin of -60.3%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the AMPX DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Amprius Technologies Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 3, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for AMPX (Amprius Technologies Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.