ZVRA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Zevra Therapeutics Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ZVRA Stock
We analyzed Zevra Therapeutics Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ZVRA through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ZVRA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Zevra's primary risk is its ability to effectively deploy its substantial cash reserves into accretive M&A or high-potential pipeline development. A failure to acquire or develop new, commercially viable assets could leave the company overly reliant on MIPLYFFA, limiting its long-term growth ceiling and jeopardizing its 10x potential.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Heavy reliance on a single commercial product (MIPLYFFA) for current revenue
- ⚠
Insider (Chief Legal Officer) selling shares, albeit under a 10b5-1 plan
- ⚠
Absence of a clear, announced pipeline expansion strategy post-debt repayment (though expected)
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Disappointing Q2 2026 earnings or guidance revision
- 📅
Failure to identify or successfully integrate new pipeline assets
- 📅
Adverse clinical trial results for a key candidate
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth decelerates significantly (<20% YoY) for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if the company announces a dilutive capital raise without a clear, high-ROI strategic use of funds.
- 🚪
Exit if significant M&A activity fails to materialize or proves value-destructive.
Unlock ZVRA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) Do?
Market Cap
$657.36M
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
59
Zevra Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage company, focuses on addressing unmet needs for the treatment of rare diseases in the United States. The company develops its products through Ligand Activated Technology platform. Its lead product candidate is KP1077, consisting of KP1077IH, which is under Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of idiopathic hypersomnia, and KP1077N, which is under Phase 1/2 clinical trial to treat narcolepsy. The company is also developing Celiprolol, a prodrug product candidate that is under Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of vascular Ehlers Danlos syndrome. In addition, it offers AZSTARYS, a once-daily treatment for attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder in patients aged six years and older; OLPRUVA to treat urea cycle disorders; and MIPLYFFA for the treatment of niemann pick disease type C, an ultra-rare neurodegenerative lysosomal storage disorder. The company has collaboration and license agreement with Commave Therapeutics SA to develop, manufacture and commercialize the company's product candidates containing SDX and d-methylphenidate; and license agreement with Acer and Relief Therapeutics, Inc. to develop and commercialize rights for OLPRUVA. The company was formerly known as KemPharm, Inc. and changed its name to Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. in February 2023. Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Celebration, Florida.
Visit Zevra Therapeutics Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Zevra Therapeutics is a highly compelling investment opportunity for 10x growth, having significantly de-risked its balance sheet and achieved strong profitability. With over $236M in net cash and a debt-free status, the company is exceptionally well-positioned to execute strategic M&A or accelerate pipeline development in the high-value rare disease sector, translating its current operational success into a multi-product, multi-billion dollar enterprise within 3-5 years.
Is ZVRA Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for ZVRA
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
ZVRA Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$21.00
Bull Case
$30.00
Bear Case
$9.00
Valuation Basis
7x EV/Sales on FY26 estimated revenue (annualized Q1 2026) + net cash
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $11-$12 (near current price, allowing for minor pullback post-earnings surge).
Exit Strategy
Consider partial profit-taking at $20-$25. Stop-loss at $9.00 to protect against fundamental shifts or broader market downturns.
Portfolio Allocation
5-7% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is ZVRA Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.29
Forward P/E
20.49
Profitability
Gross Margin
97.90%
Operating Margin
-4.44%
Net Margin
101.58%
Return on Equity
81.34%
Revenue Growth
201.29%
EPS
$2.15
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
5.68
Quick Ratio
5.46
Debt/Equity
0.40
Cash & Equivalents
$236.80M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$5.10M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.87
Does ZVRA Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable/Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat for MIPLYFFA is durable due to orphan drug exclusivity and the niche nature of NPC. The overall company moat is expanding as its robust financial position allows for acquisition of additional IP and expansion into new rare disease markets.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Potential for new, more effective therapies for NPC to emerge
- •Patent expiry for MIPLYFFA in the long term
- •Failure to secure and integrate additional high-value IP to diversify the portfolio
ZVRA Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
ZVRA Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish, fueled by strong Q1 earnings and debt-free status, generating retail investor interest.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, likely to see renewed institutional interest and potential analyst upgrades following the strong Q1 results and balance sheet de-risking.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Rahsaan Thompson (Chief Legal & Compliance Officer) sold 1,794 shares at $11.30/share on May 6, 2026, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted Jan 8, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific data indicates unusual institutional positioning.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium-High, given the strong Q1 beat and favorable market conditions.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Likely to see positive stock price reactions to earnings beats, especially given the current positive momentum.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN)
Market Share Trend
Gaining/Stable in the specific NPC market with >40% penetration; potential to gain in broader rare disease segments with pipeline expansion.
Valuation vs Peers
Currently trading at a discount on an EV/Sales basis compared to established rare disease peers given its smaller market cap and fewer commercial assets. The strong cash position provides a significant discount on enterprise value.
Competitive Advantages
- •Orphan drug exclusivity for MIPLYFFA
- •Strong cash position for strategic M&A and R&D
- •Profitable commercialization engine for ultra-rare diseases
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive ZVRA Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (estimated August 2026)
- •Updates on strategic M&A or pipeline development plans
- •Potential new clinical trial initiation for MIPLYFFA or new asset
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Announcement of new asset acquisition or licensing deal
- •Phase 2/3 trial readouts for new pipeline candidates
- •Expansion of MIPLYFFA into new geographies or indications
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Successful launch and commercialization of multiple new orphan drugs
- •Establishment as a multi-product rare disease leader
- •Significant market share gain in expanded therapeutic areas
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for ZVRA?
- ✓
Acceleration in revenue growth beyond Q1 2026 levels
- ✓
Announcements of strategic M&A deals for high-potential rare disease assets
- ✓
Progress in advancing new clinical candidates through trials
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with ZVRA
See how Zevra Therapeutics Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zevra Therapeutics Inc ZVRA | $657.4M | 9.0 | 5.3 | $36.2M | 101.6% | 201.3% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $403.8B | 0.1 | 171.8 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $150.6B | 0.2 | 19.4 | $62.6B | 12.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $357.9B | 0.3 | 29.7 | $111.7B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Zevra Therapeutics Inc Makes Money
Zevra Therapeutics is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on delivering therapies for patients with rare diseases. The company primarily generates revenue through the commercialization of its flagship product, MIPLYFFA, which treats Niemann-Pick Disease Type C (NPC), an ultra-rare genetic disorder. In addition to direct sales of MIPLYFFA, Zevra also earns revenue from expanded access programs for this drug and receives royalties from previously licensed assets like OLPRUVA and AZSTARYS. Their business model emphasizes identifying unmet medical needs within niche, underserved patient populations and developing or acquiring high-value orphan drugs for these conditions, aiming to establish market leadership in specific rare disease segments.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA)?
As of May 14, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics Inc has a DVR Score of 9.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Zevra Therapeutics Inc?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc's market capitalization is approximately $657.4M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Zevra Therapeutics Inc use?
ZVRA is the ticker symbol for Zevra Therapeutics Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for ZVRA stock?
Our analysis rates Zevra Therapeutics Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ZVRA?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.3. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Zevra Therapeutics Inc's revenue growing?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc has reported revenue growth of 201.3%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ZVRA stock profitable?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc has a profit margin of 101.6%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the ZVRA DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Zevra Therapeutics Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 14, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.