ZVRA Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Zevra Therapeutics Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About ZVRA Stock
We analyzed Zevra Therapeutics Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran ZVRA through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
ZVRA Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company's pivot to a single-asset (MIPLYFFA) focus creates significant concentration risk. If MIPLYFFA's revenue growth decelerates, fails to achieve significant ex-US approvals, or faces unexpected competition, the company's 10x growth potential could be severely hampered, leading to investor disappointment and a substantial stock price decline.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Low
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
CEO Neil McFarlane sold 91,000 shares (~$853,580) over the last 90 days, signaling a lack of conviction from top management.
- ⚠
TTM EBITDA is -$80.61M despite FY 2025 net income of $83.2M, indicating potential non-cash expenses or a recent operational shift that needs clarification.
- ⚠
Reliance on a single commercial asset increases business risk without a strong, clearly defined pipeline of future growth drivers.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or lower-than-expected MIPLYFFA revenue growth
- 📅
Unexpected competition or alternative treatment emerging for Niemann-Pick Type C
- 📅
Negative regulatory decision for ex-US approvals or future indications
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
MIPLYFFA quarterly net revenue growth falls below 10% for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Cash balance drops below $50M without clear non-dilutive financing plans.
- 🚪
Major regulatory setback for MIPLYFFA in any key market (US or international).
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What Does Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) Do?
Market Cap
$588.96M
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
59
Zevra Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage company, focuses on addressing unmet needs for the treatment of rare diseases in the United States. The company develops its products through Ligand Activated Technology platform. Its lead product candidate is KP1077, consisting of KP1077IH, which is under Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of idiopathic hypersomnia, and KP1077N, which is under Phase 1/2 clinical trial to treat narcolepsy. The company is also developing Celiprolol, a prodrug product candidate that is under Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of vascular Ehlers Danlos syndrome. In addition, it offers AZSTARYS, a once-daily treatment for attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder in patients aged six years and older; OLPRUVA to treat urea cycle disorders; and MIPLYFFA for the treatment of niemann pick disease type C, an ultra-rare neurodegenerative lysosomal storage disorder. The company has collaboration and license agreement with Commave Therapeutics SA to develop, manufacture and commercialize the company's product candidates containing SDX and d-methylphenidate; and license agreement with Acer and Relief Therapeutics, Inc. to develop and commercialize rights for OLPRUVA. The company was formerly known as KemPharm, Inc. and changed its name to Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. in February 2023. Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Celebration, Florida.
Visit Zevra Therapeutics Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Zevra Therapeutics, post-strategic pivot, is a highly focused rare disease company with a single, approved, and rapidly growing commercial asset (MIPLYFFA for Niemann-Pick Type C). Its strong cash position (runway to 2029) and demonstrated ability to monetize non-core assets provide financial stability, while the strong market penetration and growth of MIPLYFFA indicate significant potential for continued revenue expansion and, ultimately, re-rating of its valuation. Further upside could come from ex-US approvals or new indications for Arimoclomol.
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ZVRA Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$23.00
Bull Case
$35.00
Bear Case
$7.50
Valuation Basis
15x forward P/E on estimated FY26 EPS of $1.53 (moderate growth from FY25 EPS $1.35).
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $9.50-$10.50, seeking stability after recent insider selling; consider dips towards $8.50 as a support test.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $23.00 target, re-evaluate remaining position based on continued MIPLYFFA growth and pipeline updates. Stop loss at $7.00.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is ZVRA Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.08
PEG Ratio
0.05
Price/Book
10.00
Price/Sales
16.80
Profitability
Gross Margin
96.37%
Operating Margin
-59.12%
Net Margin
78.17%
Return on Equity
74.63%
Revenue Growth
350.91%
EPS
$1.47
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
5.68
Quick Ratio
5.46
Debt/Equity
0.40
Cash & Equivalents
$75.50M
Cash Flow
EBITDA
-$80.61M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.90
Does ZVRA Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is durable due to the orphan drug designation offering market exclusivity, coupled with established physician adoption and patient trust for an approved therapy in a high-unmet-need condition like Niemann-Pick Type C. IP protection further strengthens its position.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Potential for the emergence of a more effective or safer competing therapy for NPC.
- •Expiration of key patents or orphan drug exclusivity for Arimoclomol.
- •Regulatory changes that could impact orphan drug incentives or pricing.
ZVRA Competitive Moat Analysis
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ZVRA Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No specific data, assumed neutral as no prominent buzz provided)
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (7 Buy, 2 Hold analyst ratings; JPMorgan increased Q3 holdings by 1,458.8%)
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CEO Neil McFarlane sold 91,000 shares for ~$853,580 over the last 90 days. Total insider selling of 114,158 shares for $1.06M.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific data provided)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
No consistent historical pattern observed due to company pivot and recent financial restructuring; future reactions will be highly sensitive to MIPLYFFA performance and guidance.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
ACOR (Acorda Therapeutics) - Example, as no direct peers specified, but represents a niche rare disease player.
Market Share Trend
Gaining (MIPLYFFA achieved >40% penetration of diagnosed U.S. NPC patients by Q4 2025)
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a discount to many established rare disease companies on a trailing P/E basis (7.07 vs potential 15-20x+ for high-growth peers), but justified given single-asset focus and current market cap.
Competitive Advantages
- •Established first-mover advantage and physician familiarity for MIPLYFFA in US NPC market.
- •Orphan drug designation and related market exclusivity.
- •High switching costs for patients and providers in rare disease treatment.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive ZVRA Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report on 2026-05-06 (after market close)
- •Continued sequential revenue growth for MIPLYFFA in Q1 2026
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Potential for EU approval or other ex-US market entries for Arimoclomol/MIPLYFFA
- •Increased US market penetration of diagnosed NPC patients beyond 40%
- •Announcement of new clinical trials for Arimoclomol in additional indications or patient populations
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Establishment of Zevra as a dominant player in the Niemann-Pick Type C market globally
- •Strategic acquisitions to diversify product portfolio beyond a single asset
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for ZVRA?
- ✓
Sustained quarterly double-digit growth in MIPLYFFA net revenue.
- ✓
Positive regulatory updates regarding Arimoclomol in key international markets (e.g., EU).
- ✓
Announcements of new early-stage pipeline assets to diversify beyond a single product.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with ZVRA
See how Zevra Therapeutics Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zevra Therapeutics Inc ZVRA | $589.0M | 7.5 | 7.1 | $106.5M | 78.2% | 350.9% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $403.8B | 0.1 | 171.8 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $150.6B | 0.2 | 19.4 | $62.6B | 12.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $276.2B | 0.3 | 22.9 | $113.7B | 2.7% | 1181.0% | Compare → |
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How Zevra Therapeutics Inc Makes Money
Zevra Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that generates revenue by developing and commercializing specialty drugs for rare diseases, specifically Niemann-Pick Type C (NPC). Its core business revolves around the sale of MIPLYFFA (Arimoclomol), an FDA-approved prescription medication for NPC in the United States. Zevra leverages the orphan drug designation for MIPLYFFA, which grants market exclusivity and enables premium pricing due to the high unmet medical need and small patient population. The company manages clinical development, regulatory approval processes, manufacturing, and commercial distribution to bring these specialized therapies to patients.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA)?
As of April 22, 2026, Zevra Therapeutics Inc has a DVR Score of 7.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Zevra Therapeutics Inc?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc's market capitalization is approximately $589.0M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Zevra Therapeutics Inc use?
ZVRA is the ticker symbol for Zevra Therapeutics Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for ZVRA stock?
Our analysis rates Zevra Therapeutics Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of ZVRA?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.1. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Zevra Therapeutics Inc's revenue growing?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc has reported revenue growth of 350.9%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is ZVRA stock profitable?
Zevra Therapeutics Inc has a profit margin of 78.2%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the ZVRA DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Zevra Therapeutics Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 22, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.