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RTX Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

RTX Corp

Industrials • Aerospace & Defense

DVR Score

0.1

out of 10

Distressed

What You Need to Know About RTX Stock

We analyzed RTX Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran RTX through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.

Updated Apr 11, 2026Run Fresh Analysis →

RTX Risk Analysis & Red Flags

What Could Go Wrong

Continued or escalating challenges with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine program could lead to further costly fixes, potential groundings, and reputational damage, severely impacting commercial aerospace revenue and profitability and diverting significant resources from new initiatives.

Risk Matrix

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Low

Market

Low

Competitive

Low

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Medium

Red Flags

  • Current valuation of ~$196 considered overvalued by GF Value ($141)

  • Lack of detailed balance sheet ratios (e.g., current, quick, debt-to-equity) in provided intel, though cash flow is strong

  • The GTF engine issues, while being managed, remain a potential headwind for the short-to-medium term.

Upcoming Risk Events

  • 📅

    Q1 2026 earnings miss or weak forward guidance

  • 📅

    New or expanded issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines

  • 📅

    Significant cuts to global defense budgets

When to Reconsider

  • 🚪

    Exit if Q1 2026 earnings show significant underperformance or FCF guidance is materially cut below $8B for 2026

  • 🚪

    Sell if new, widespread issues emerge with the GTF engines leading to substantial new charges or fleet groundings

  • 🚪

    Exit if major government contract losses or significant defense budget reductions are announced that impact backlog.

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What Does RTX Corp (RTX) Do?

0

Sector

Industrials

Industry

Aerospace & Defense

Employees

186,000

RTX Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace Systems segment offers aerospace and defense products, and aftermarket service solutions for civil and military aircraft manufacturers and commercial airlines, as well as regional, business, and general aviation, defense, and commercial space operations. This segment also designs, produces, and supports cabin interior, including seating, oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation, storage and galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management systems; battlespace, test and training range systems, crew escape systems, and simulation and training solutions; information management services; and aftermarket services that include spare parts, overhaul and repair, engineering and technical support, training and fleet management solutions, and asset and information management services. The Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation customers; and produces, sells, and services military and commercial auxiliary power units. The Raytheon segment provides defensive and offensive threat detection, tracking, and mitigation capabilities for government, and commercial customers. The company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation and changed its name to RTX Corporation in July 2023. RTX Corporation was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.

Visit RTX Corp Website

Investment Thesis

RTX is a fundamentally strong, cash-generative mega-cap poised for stable, long-term growth driven by resilient global defense spending, a recovering commercial aerospace market, and its robust $268B order backlog. While offering exceptional stability and potential for moderate capital appreciation and income, it lacks the characteristics required for 10x growth potential within a 3-5 year timeframe.

Is RTX Stock Undervalued?

RTX Corporation, a mega-cap aerospace and defense conglomerate, operates in a mature industry fundamentally unsuitable for 10x growth within a 3-5 year horizon. While demonstrating solid financial health with improving sales, adjusted EPS, and positive free cash flow ($7.9B in 2025, projected $8.25-$8.75B for 2026), and boasting a substantial $268B backlog, its sheer size ($270.55B market cap aiming for $2.7T+) and incremental growth model preclude exponential returns. The company possesses robust competitive advantages and a clear vision within its stable sector, but these strengths are geared towards long-term stability and moderate appreciation, not hyper-growth. Ongoing challenges with Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues continue to temper short-to-medium term growth prospects, and the stock is considered overvalued per GF Value. There are no material changes since the previous analysis to alter its hyper-growth potential.

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RTX Price Targets & Strategy

12-Month Target

$230.00

Bull Case

$242.00

Bear Case

$185.00

Valuation Basis

Based on average of recent analyst price targets and ~46x trailing FY2025 adjusted EPS of $5.02.

Entry Strategy

Dollar-cost average on dips towards $190-$195, targeting recent support levels. Avoid aggressive entry given current valuation and lack of hyper-growth catalyst.

Exit Strategy

Take profit on significant rallies above $235-$240. Consider exiting if sustained below $185 (key support area) or if free cash flow guidance deteriorates significantly.

Portfolio Allocation

3-5% for a moderate risk tolerance, suitable for long-term core holdings seeking stability and income, not high growth.

Price Targets & Strategy

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Is RTX Financially Healthy?

Valuation

P/E Ratio

4.96

Profitability

Net Margin

7.59%

EPS

$4.96

Does RTX Have a Competitive Moat?

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Moat Rating

🏰 Wide

Moat Trend

Stable

Moat Sources

4 Identified

Intangible Assets/IP (Patents for advanced engine designs, radar, missile technology)Switching Costs (High cost and complexity of switching defense systems or aircraft engines)Cost Advantages (Economies of scale in R&D and manufacturing for complex systems)Efficient Scale (Dominant position in specific niche markets with high barriers to entry)

RTX's wide moat is highly durable due to the specialized, high-cost, and mission-critical nature of its products. Governments and major airlines are locked into long-term contracts and maintenance agreements, making transitions to competitors extremely difficult and expensive. The vast IP and engineering expertise are formidable barriers.

Moat Erosion Risks

  • Significant government budget cuts or shifts in procurement priorities
  • Major technological leapfrogs by competitors that render RTX's offerings obsolete
  • Failure to resolve critical product issues (like GTF engines) leading to customer attrition and reputational damage

RTX Competitive Moat Analysis

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RTX Market Intelligence

Sentiment & Insider Activity

Social Sentiment

Neutral (Consistent with a stable, large-cap defense stock, generally not a retail favorite for hyper-growth)

Institutional Sentiment

Positive (Deutsche Bank reiterated 'Buy' and raised PT; overall street high PT of $242 suggests some bullishness)

Insider Activity (Form 4)

No specific Form 4 filings reported for RTX executives or others in results within the last 90 days.

Options Flow

Normal options activity (No specific unusual options activity data provided in the research).

Earnings Intelligence

Next Earnings

2026-04-21

Surprise Probability

Medium

Historical Earnings Pattern

Stock has shown positive reactions to earnings date announcements (+3.07% on Mar 31, +1.14% on Jan 6), indicating generally favorable market anticipation for company news.

Key Metrics to Watch

Total sales growth (particularly commercial aerospace segment)Adjusted EPS performance vs. expectationsFree cash flow guidance reaffirmation for 2026Updates on GTF engine service issues and remediation progress

Competitive Position

Top Competitor

LMT (Lockheed Martin)

Market Share Trend

Stable/Gaining (Supported by strong $268B backlog and ongoing defense contract wins and GTF Advantage engine backlog)

Valuation vs Peers

Trading at a premium according to GF Value relative to its intrinsic value, though direct P/E or EV/Sales comparisons to sector median are unavailable.

Competitive Advantages

  • Technological leadership in critical aerospace and defense systems (e.g., GTF engines, missile defense)
  • Massive scale and global reach in both commercial and defense sectors
  • Deep, long-standing relationships with government and commercial customers
  • Large, diversified backlog providing revenue visibility

Market Intelligence

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What Could Drive RTX Stock Higher?

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • Q1 2026 Earnings Release (April 21, 2026)
  • Continued progress in missile facility expansion and defense awards
  • Updates on Pratt & Whitney GTF Advantage engine backlog fulfillment

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • Further recovery and growth in commercial aerospace traffic and new engine orders
  • Strategic advancements in hybrid-electric powertrain testing
  • Conversion of significant backlog into revenue

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • Long-term global defense spending trends driven by geopolitical dynamics
  • Advancements in next-generation aerospace and defense technologies
  • Sustained aftermarket services growth for existing engine fleet

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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What's the Bull Case for RTX?

  • Consistent growth in backlog and bookings across all segments

  • Continued resolution and containment of the GTF engine issues without significant new financial impacts

  • Achievement or beat of free cash flow guidance for 2026 and beyond

Bull Case Analysis

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Competing with RTX

See how RTX Corp compares to related companies

CompanyMarket CapDVR ScoreP/ERevenueProfit MarginRev Growth

RTX Corp

RTX

0.15.0$88.6B7.6%0.0%

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

0.1Compare →

General Electric Co

GE

$306.2B0.135.9$45.9B20.0%18.0%Compare →

Honeywell International Inc.

HON

1.5Compare →

United Parcel Service Inc

UPS

$81.3B0.114.3Compare →

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How RTX Corp Makes Money

RTX Corporation operates as a global aerospace and defense technology company that primarily designs, manufactures, and services advanced systems and components for governments, commercial airlines, and aircraft manufacturers worldwide. It generates revenue by selling highly sophisticated products such as jet engines (Pratt & Whitney), missile defense systems, advanced radar, command and control systems (Raytheon), and various other avionics and integrated platforms. A significant portion of its income also comes from long-term service agreements and aftermarket support for its installed base.

Read Full Business Model Breakdown

FAQ

What is the DVR Score for RTX Corp (RTX)?

As of April 11, 2026, RTX Corp has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What ticker symbol does RTX Corp use?

RTX is the ticker symbol for RTX Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.

What is the risk level for RTX stock?

Our analysis rates RTX Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of RTX?

RTX Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.0. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.

Is RTX Corp's revenue growing?

RTX Corp has reported revenue growth of 0.0%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.

Is RTX stock profitable?

RTX Corp has a profit margin of 7.6%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.

How often is the RTX DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of RTX Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 11, 2026.

Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for RTX (RTX Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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