Z Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Zillow Group Inc
Communication Services • Internet Content & Information
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About Z Stock
We analyzed Zillow Group Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran Z through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
Z Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The ongoing FTC investigation, alleging anti-competitive behavior with Redfin, poses the single biggest risk. A severe outcome, such as significant fines or mandated changes to Zillow's business model (especially concerning listing agreements or agent lead generation), could severely hinder its 'super app' strategy and market dominance, leading to a substantial devaluation of the stock.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
FTC investigation alleging anti-competitive practices.
- ⚠
Legal expenses identified as a drag on Q1 2026 EBITDA.
- ⚠
Achieving 10x growth from a large-cap market cap of $10.25B is exceptionally ambitious.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Negative outcome from FTC investigation (e.g., large fine, restrictive injunctions)
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or weak Q2 guidance
- 📅
Increased legal expenses further impacting profitability
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if FTC investigation results in material adverse impact to business model or large financial penalty.
- 🚪
Sell if quarterly revenue growth consistently falls below 10% YoY, indicating stagnation.
- 🚪
Exit if management rescinds or significantly lowers mid-cycle financial targets.
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What Does Zillow Group Inc (Z) Do?
Market Cap
$10.94B
Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Internet Content & Information
Employees
7,031
Zillow Group, Inc. operates real estate brands in mobile applications and Websites in the United States. The company offers premier agent and rentals marketplaces, new construction marketplaces, advertising, display advertising, and business technology solutions, as well as dotloop, a real estate transaction management SaaS solution. It also provides mortgage originations and the sale of mortgages, and advertising to mortgage lenders and other mortgage professionals; and title and escrow services. In addition, the company's brand portfolio includes Zillow Premier Agent, Zillow Home Loans, Zillow Rentals, Trulia, StreetEasy, HotPads, and Out East; and a suite of marketing software and technology solutions for the real estate industry, including ShowingTime+, Spruce, and Follow Up Boss. Zillow Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Visit Zillow Group Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Zillow is positioned to leverage its dominant digital real estate platform into an indispensable 'housing super app,' capturing a greater share of transaction value through higher-margin services. Its strategic AI integration and aggressive share repurchase program are set to drive revenue growth, margin expansion, and EPS acceleration, propelling the stock towards significant long-term upside despite near-term regulatory challenges.
Is Z Stock Undervalued?
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Z Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$75.00
Bull Case
$95.00
Bear Case
$30.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 5x FY2027 estimated revenue of $3.5B (assuming strong growth towards mid-cycle targets) minus net cash, divided by projected 235M shares outstanding.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $38-$42, targeting dips around recent support levels. Consider initial entry on positive Q1 earnings or clarity on FTC investigation.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $70-$75, re-evaluate at $90+. Stop loss if price drops below $35, indicating severe market reaction to regulatory news or execution missteps.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for aggressive risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is Z Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
506.44
Forward P/E
20.58
EV/EBITDA
146.54
Price/Book
2.24
Price/Sales
4.24
Profitability
Gross Margin
74.14%
Operating Margin
-1.24%
Net Margin
0.89%
Revenue Growth
18.10%
EPS
$0.09
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.13
Quick Ratio
2.14
Debt/Equity
0.09
Cash Flow
EBITDA
$411.00M
Does Z Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Zillow's strong brand, vast user network, and proprietary data create significant switching costs for consumers and agents, making it difficult for competitors to replicate. Its continued investment in AI and expansion into transaction services aims to deepen this moat.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Regulatory intervention (FTC investigation) could limit market reach or business practices.
- •Intense competition from traditional brokers and other tech platforms.
- •Dependence on a volatile housing market and interest rate sensitivity.
Z Competitive Moat Analysis
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Z Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral with mild bullish undertones due to AI advancements and positive long-term vision.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, evidenced by 94.87% institutional ownership; however, no recent analyst upgrades/downgrades specified.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Errol Samuelson (Chief Industry Development Officer) sold 7,015 shares for $310,124 on 02/12/2026 and sold 4,734 shares for tax withholding on 03/26/2026, while also acquiring 7,912 shares via RSU vest. Richard N. Barton (Co-Executive Chairman/Co-Founder) exercised options for 300,000 Class C shares at $22.41/share on 02/12/2026. Overall, routine activity; no significant net selling by top execs.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual options activity or put/call ratio specified in research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated post-March 31, 2026 (exact date unavailable)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
No specific historical earnings reaction patterns provided; typically sensitive to guidance and commentary on housing market conditions.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Redfin
Market Share Trend
Leading in online real estate search; guided ~30% YoY growth in Rentals segment for 2026; FTC investigation implies strong existing market position.
Valuation vs Peers
Valuation relative to peers (e.g., P/E, EV/S) not available in research; however, Zillow's dominant user base and 'super app' ambition suggest it could command a premium if execution is strong.
Competitive Advantages
- •Unparalleled brand recognition and user base (network effects)
- •Extensive proprietary data on housing market
- •Strategic focus on high-margin transaction services
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive Z Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings report (expected post-March 31, 2026)
- •Further rollout and adoption of AI Mode features
- •Continued execution of $1.25B share repurchase program
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion and deeper integration of 'housing super app' features (e.g., mortgages, closing services)
- •Clarity or resolution regarding the FTC investigation
- •Successful execution towards mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA margin targets
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving $5B revenue and 25% net income margin mid-cycle targets (3-5 years)
- •Disruption of traditional real estate transaction models through end-to-end services
- •Sustained market leadership in digital real estate ecosystem
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for Z?
- ✓
Acceleration in revenue growth from Premier Agent and Mortgages segments.
- ✓
Consistent improvement in adjusted EBITDA and net income margins (excluding legal expenses).
- ✓
Positive developments or resolution regarding the FTC investigation.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with Z
See how Zillow Group Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zillow Group Inc Z | $10.9B | 7.1 | 506.4 | $15.4B | 0.9% | 18.1% | |
Comcast Corp CMCSA | $106.0B | 0.4 | 5.3 | $124.0B | 16.2% | -0.0% | Compare → |
Walt Disney Co DIS | $171.2B | 2.7 | 14.0 | $91.4B | 6.3% | 10.0% | Compare → |
Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $4.7T | 1.0 | 29.1 | $402.8B | 37.9% | 17.4% | Compare → |
Meta Platforms Inc META | — | 5.1 | 15.7 | — | 30.1% | 22.2% | Compare → |
Netflix Inc NFLX | $388.5B | 0.7 | 29.1 | $46.9B | 28.5% | 16.7% | Compare → |
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How Zillow Group Inc Makes Money
Zillow Group operates a leading online real estate marketplace where consumers can search for homes to buy or rent, get mortgage information, and access various real estate services. The company primarily makes money by selling advertising and leads to real estate agents (Premier Agent program), originating and servicing mortgages through its Zillow Home Loans segment, and offering a rental platform for landlords and tenants. The strategy is to become an end-to-end 'housing super app' that facilitates every stage of the home transaction.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Zillow Group Inc (Z)?
As of April 6, 2026, Zillow Group Inc has a DVR Score of 7.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Zillow Group Inc?
Zillow Group Inc's market capitalization is approximately $10.9B. The company operates in the Communication Services sector within the Internet Content & Information industry.
What ticker symbol does Zillow Group Inc use?
Z is the ticker symbol for Zillow Group Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for Z stock?
Our analysis rates Zillow Group Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of Z?
Zillow Group Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 506.4. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Zillow Group Inc's revenue growing?
Zillow Group Inc has reported revenue growth of 18.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is Z stock profitable?
Zillow Group Inc has a profit margin of 0.9%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the Z DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Zillow Group Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 6, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for Z (Zillow Group Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.