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WLDN Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Willdan Group, Inc

Industrials • Engineering & Construction

DVR Score

3.8

out of 10

Risk Trap

What You Need to Know About WLDN Stock

We analyzed Willdan Group, Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran WLDN through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.

Updated Apr 24, 2026Run Fresh Analysis →

WLDN Risk Analysis & Red Flags

What Could Go Wrong

Despite the recent contract win, the significant Q4 2025 revenue miss, if indicative of recurring operational challenges or project delays, could severely hamper future growth and market confidence, potentially leading to a share price decline. Managing large-scale professional services contracts requires consistent and flawless execution.

Risk Matrix

Overall

Moderate

Financial

Low

Market

Low

Competitive

Medium

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Low

Red Flags

  • Q4 2025 revenue miss of 48.7% ($84.99M below estimate)

  • Director Steven A. Cohen sold 22.35% of his holdings (6,000 shares for $490,920) on March 6, 2026

Upcoming Risk Events

  • 📅

    Q1 2026 earnings miss, particularly on revenue or revised guidance

  • 📅

    Slower-than-expected progress or delays on large-scale government contracts

  • 📅

    Increased competitive pressure from larger engineering/consulting firms

When to Reconsider

  • 🚪

    If quarterly revenue misses estimates by more than 10% for two consecutive quarters.

  • 🚪

    If management revises full-year EPS guidance downwards significantly.

  • 🚪

    If gross margins show a consistent decline for two or more consecutive quarters.

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What Does Willdan Group, Inc (WLDN) Do?

Market Cap

$1.14B

Sector

Industrials

Industry

Engineering & Construction

Employees

1,761

Willdan Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides professional, technical, and consulting services primarily in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Energy, and Engineering and Consulting. The Energy segment offers comprehensive audit and surveys, program design and implementation, master planning, demand reduction, grid optimization, benchmarking analyses, design engineering, construction management, performance contracting, installation, alternative financing, measurement and verification services, and software and data analytics, as well as energy consulting and engineering, turnkey facility and infrastructure projects, and customer support services. The Engineering and Consulting segment provides building and safety, city engineering and code enforcement, development plan review and inspection, disaster recovery, geotechnical and earthquake engineering, planning and surveying, contract staff support, program and construction management, structural engineering, transportation and traffic engineering, and water resources services. This segment also offers district administration, financial consulting, and federal compliance services. It serves public and governmental agencies, including cities, counties, redevelopment agencies, water districts, school districts, and universities; investor and municipal owned energy utilities; state and federal agencies; and commercial and industrial firms, as well as various other special districts and agencies. Willdan Group, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Anaheim, California.

Visit Willdan Group, Inc Website

Investment Thesis

Willdan is strategically positioned to capitalize on the multi-decade tailwind of energy transition, climate resiliency, and infrastructure modernization, driven by its proprietary Integral Analytics platform and deep relationships with utilities and municipal governments. The recent $27M NYC contract win validates its market leadership and execution, suggesting continued, stable growth in a critical sector, albeit constrained by its professional services model for hyper-exponential 10x growth.

Is WLDN Stock Undervalued?

Score Change Explanation: Since the last analysis on March 19, 2026, Willdan Group, Inc. has secured a significant three-year, $27 million contract with the NYC Mayor's Office for Climate & Environmental Justice, announced on April 15, 2026. This award substantially reinforces Willdan's strategic positioning and competitive advantage in the high-demand energy transition and climate resiliency sector. While this does not fundamentally alter the company's professional services business model to enable hyper-exponential growth for a 10x return, it provides tangible revenue visibility and validates their Integral Analytics platform and expertise, demonstrating strong execution and strengthening their long-term market leadership in this specialized niche. This material positive catalyst justifies a modest upward adjustment of the 10x growth potential score. Willdan continues to leverage its strong position in energy transition and infrastructure, powered by robust utility relationships and its proprietary Integral Analytics (IA) platform, ensuring stable growth. However, the inherent professional services nature, even enhanced by IA, fundamentally constrains the rapid, exponential scalability required for a 10x return within a 3-5 year timeframe. The Q4 2025 revenue miss (48.7%) is a notable red flag despite the EPS beat. While the company's financial health is robust and current momentum is positive due to the new contract and analyst sentiment, the advantages do not yet constitute the 'disruptive moat' or accelerating profitability profile of a true high-risk, high-reward 10x candidate.

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WLDN Price Targets & Strategy

12-Month Target

$115.00

Bull Case

$141.00

Bear Case

$90.00

Valuation Basis

25x forward P/E applied to midpoint of company's FY26 EPS guidance ($4.60) = $115.00

Entry Strategy

Consider dollar-cost averaging on pullbacks below $95.00, seeking to enter closer to recent support levels.

Exit Strategy

Take initial profits at $115.00, with a second profit target at $125.00 (Compass Point's target). Implement a stop-loss at $85.00.

Portfolio Allocation

5% for moderate risk tolerance

Price Targets & Strategy

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Is WLDN Financially Healthy?

Valuation

P/E Ratio

21.63

Profitability

Gross Margin

37.51%

Operating Margin

6.48%

Net Margin

7.71%

Return on Equity

19.12%

Revenue Growth

12.90%

EPS

$3.48

Balance Sheet

Current Ratio

1.56

Quick Ratio

1.51

Debt/Equity

0.17

Other

Beta (Volatility)

1.13

Does WLDN Have a Competitive Moat?

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Moat Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Moat Trend

Expanding

Moat Sources

3 Identified

Intangible Assets/IP (Integral Analytics platform, specialized technical and regulatory expertise)Switching Costs (Deep integration into client operations for multi-year contracts, difficult to replace established programs)Efficient Scale (In specific, highly specialized niches, they can achieve economies of scale and expertise)

The moat is durable due to the specialized nature of climate resiliency and energy infrastructure projects, which require deep technical expertise, regulatory knowledge, and established relationships. The IA platform enhances efficiency and value, making it harder for competitors to replicate and embedding Willdan further into client workflows.

Moat Erosion Risks

  • Intense competition from larger, more diversified engineering and consulting firms
  • Failure to continuously innovate the Integral Analytics platform and expand its capabilities
  • Reliance on government funding and utility spending, which can be subject to policy shifts

WLDN Competitive Moat Analysis

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WLDN Market Intelligence

Sentiment & Insider Activity

Social Sentiment

Neutral to Cautiously Bullish. Retail investors may be attracted to the ESG narrative and recent contract wins, but the business model is less prone to viral retail interest.

Institutional Sentiment

Positive. Analyst consensus is 'Moderate Buy', Wedbush initiated coverage on April 9, 2026, and SG Americas Securities significantly increased its stake by 601.5% (51,753 shares) in early April 2026, partially offset by JPMorgan Chase reducing its position by 60%.

Insider Activity (Form 4)

Director Steven A. Cohen sold 6,000 shares on March 6, 2026, at an average price of $81.82 per share, totaling $490,920. This represented a 22.35% reduction in his holdings. No CEO or CFO transactions reported in the last 90 days.

Options Flow

Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity data available in the brief).

Earnings Intelligence

Next Earnings

2026-05-07

Surprise Probability

Medium

Historical Earnings Pattern

Q4 2025 showed a substantial EPS beat but a significant revenue miss, suggesting a mixed market reaction could be expected depending on the balance of future performance metrics and guidance.

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue growth, particularly organic and from Integral Analytics-leveraged projectsGross and operating margin trends, demonstrating scalability or efficiency improvementsUpdates on full-year 2026 EPS guidance and commentary on the project pipeline

Competitive Position

Top Competitor

AECOM (ACM)

Market Share Trend

Gaining. The significant NYC contract award is evidence of gaining ground in specialized, competitive markets.

Valuation vs Peers

Trading at a fair valuation, potentially at a slight premium to general engineering services peers due to its specialized focus on high-growth energy transition segments and proprietary technology.

Competitive Advantages

  • Proprietary Integral Analytics (IA) platform for data-driven program optimization
  • Strong, long-standing relationships with utilities and municipal governments
  • Specialized expertise in complex energy efficiency, climate resiliency, and regulatory compliance (e.g., Local Law 97)

Market Intelligence

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What Could Drive WLDN Stock Higher?

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • Q1 2026 Earnings Report (May 7, 2026)
  • Further details or milestones regarding the $27M NYC Contract

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • Continued execution and progress on the NYC Accelerator program contract
  • Expansion of Integral Analytics (IA) platform offerings and client integrations
  • Securing additional large municipal or utility contracts in climate resiliency

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • Willdan emerging as a dominant player in urban climate infrastructure and energy efficiency solutions
  • Increased recurring revenue streams from IA platform licensing or embedded services
  • Potential strategic M&A activities to consolidate market share in a fragmented industry

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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What's the Bull Case for WLDN?

  • Consistent acceleration in organic revenue growth, particularly from IA-leveraged projects.

  • Sustained improvement in gross and operating margins, indicating enhanced operational leverage.

  • Announcements of additional large-scale, multi-year contracts with new or existing clients.

Bull Case Analysis

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Competing with WLDN

See how Willdan Group, Inc compares to related companies

CompanyMarket CapDVR ScoreP/ERevenueProfit MarginRev Growth

Willdan Group, Inc

WLDN

$1.1B3.821.67.7%12.9%

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0.1Compare →

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$81.3B0.114.3Compare →

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How Willdan Group, Inc Makes Money

Willdan Group provides specialized consulting and engineering services focused on energy efficiency, climate resiliency, and infrastructure development for utilities, government agencies, and commercial clients. They help design, implement, and manage programs to reduce energy consumption, develop renewable energy sources, and meet environmental compliance standards. A key differentiator is their Integral Analytics (IA) platform, which uses data science to optimize these programs and generate actionable insights, making their services more efficient and effective.

Read Full Business Model Breakdown

FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Willdan Group, Inc (WLDN)?

As of April 24, 2026, Willdan Group, Inc has a DVR Score of 3.8 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the market capitalization of Willdan Group, Inc?

Willdan Group, Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.1B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Engineering & Construction industry.

What ticker symbol does Willdan Group, Inc use?

WLDN is the ticker symbol for Willdan Group, Inc. The company trades on the NGM.

What is the risk level for WLDN stock?

Our analysis rates Willdan Group, Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

What is the P/E ratio of WLDN?

Willdan Group, Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.6. This is in line with broader market averages.

Is Willdan Group, Inc's revenue growing?

Willdan Group, Inc has reported revenue growth of 12.9%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.

Is WLDN stock profitable?

Willdan Group, Inc has a profit margin of 7.7%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.

How often is the WLDN DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Willdan Group, Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 24, 2026.

Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for WLDN (Willdan Group, Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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