VICI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
VICI Properties Inc
Real Estate • REIT - Diversified
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About VICI Stock
We analyzed VICI Properties Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran VICI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
VICI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
VICI faces significant tenant concentration risk, with Caesars and MGM accounting for ~74% of annualized lease revenues. A major financial downturn or operational issue with either of these key tenants could severely impact VICI's revenue stability and cash flow, despite the triple-net lease structure.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Low
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
High tenant concentration risk (~74% of revenue from Caesars/MGM).
- ⚠
Lack of granular balance sheet data (e.g., debt-to-equity ratio) in provided real-time intel for detailed financial risk assessment.
- ⚠
Growth strategy primarily relies on capital-intensive acquisitions rather than organic, hyper-scaling opportunities.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Potential increase in interest rates impacting cost of capital and debt financing
- 📅
Economic downturn reducing consumer discretionary spending on experiential assets
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Major tenant (Caesars or MGM) experiences severe financial distress or bankruptcy filings.
- 🚪
A significant and sustained increase in interest rates substantially eroding acquisition profitability and increasing debt service costs.
- 🚪
A sustained decline in dividend payouts or a prolonged period of flat AFFO per share growth.
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What Does VICI Properties Inc (VICI) Do?
Market Cap
$33.31B
Sector
Real Estate
Industry
REIT - Diversified
Employees
27
VICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties across the United States and Canada. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 127 million square feet and features approximately 60,300 hotel rooms and over 500 restaurants, bars, nightclubs and sportsbooks. Its properties are occupied by industry-leading gaming, leisure and hospitality operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. VICI Properties has a growing array of real estate and financing partnerships with leading developers and operators in other experiential sectors, including Cabot, Cain, Canyon Ranch, Chelsea Piers, Great Wolf Resorts, Homefield, Kalahari Resorts and Lucky Strike Entertainment. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and approximately 33 acres of undeveloped and underdeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' goal is to create the highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio through a strategy of partnering with the highest quality experiential place makers and operators.
Visit VICI Properties Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
VICI Properties Inc. offers investors a stable, high-income yield opportunity from a premier portfolio of irreplaceable experiential real estate assets with long-term, triple-net leases. Its strategic diversification efforts into broader experiential assets, combined with disciplined acquisitions, provide incremental growth and a strong dividend, making it a defensive holding suitable for a diversified income-oriented portfolio.
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VICI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$30.50
Bull Case
$33.00
Bear Case
$25.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 12.75x annualized Q4 2025 AFFO per share of $2.40 = $30.60.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average around the current price of $27.66, looking for dips towards recent support levels.
Exit Strategy
Take profit at $32.00-$33.00 range. Consider a stop-loss at $25.00 to protect capital from adverse market shifts.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for moderate risk tolerance, focusing on income generation and defensive characteristics.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is VICI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.60
Forward P/E
13.52
EV/EBITDA
12.72
PEG Ratio
3.11
Price/Book
1.06
Price/Sales
7.34
Profitability
Gross Margin
99.33%
Operating Margin
71.50%
Net Margin
69.28%
Return on Equity
10.22%
Revenue Growth
3.46%
EPS
$2.61
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.74
Quick Ratio
1.74
Debt/Equity
0.62
Total Debt
$18.50B
Cash & Equivalents
$2.59B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$2.59B
Free Cash Flow
$2.59B
EBITDA
$4.09B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.71
Dividend Yield
6.51%
Does VICI Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is durable due to the inherent high barriers to entry in acquiring and managing large-scale, licensed gaming and experiential real estate, coupled with the stability provided by long-term, triple-net leases.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Potential bankruptcy or severe financial distress of a major tenant (e.g., Caesars or MGM).
- •Significant adverse changes in gaming or broader experiential industry regulations.
- •A prolonged economic recession severely impacting discretionary consumer spending.
VICI Competitive Moat Analysis
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VICI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, as VICI is generally viewed as a stable income play rather than a speculative growth stock.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral to slightly Positive, evidenced by Pensionfund PDN initiating a stake of 176,000 shares in March 2026, but no widespread analyst upgrades/downgrades were provided.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CAO Jeremy L. Waxman filed Form 3 on March 1, 2026, reporting initial beneficial ownership of 9,823 shares acquired under the 2017 Stock Incentive Plan; no buy or sell transactions were reported by CEO/CFO or other insiders in the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, indicating no significant unusual institutional positioning based on available data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-29
Surprise Probability
Low
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, VICI's stock price tends to react moderately to earnings, primarily influenced by AFFO growth and any guidance changes regarding acquisitions or major capital deployment.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
GLPI
Market Share Trend
Stable to Gaining (via strategic acquisitions) in the highly specialized experiential real estate market.
Valuation vs Peers
VICI typically trades at a competitive valuation (P/AFFO) within the gaming/experiential REIT sector, often commanding a slight premium due to the quality and scale of its assets and tenant creditworthiness.
Competitive Advantages
- •Premier portfolio of irreplaceable, large-scale experiential assets (casinos, resorts).
- •Long-term, triple-net lease agreements with creditworthy, market-leading tenants.
- •Significant scale and efficient access to capital markets for accretive acquisitions.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive VICI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 earnings release on April 29, 2026, after market close
- •Further progress and details on the Experiential Cross-Capital Venture LOI
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Formalization and initial projects from the Experiential Cross-Capital Venture
- •Additional accretive asset acquisitions beyond gaming properties
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Successful diversification of asset base reducing tenant concentration risk
- •Continued growth of the broader experiential real estate market
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for VICI?
- ✓
Sustained acceleration in AFFO per share growth or increases in dividend payout rates.
- ✓
Successful execution and tangible revenue contribution from the recently announced 'Experiential Cross-Capital Venture'.
- ✓
Any changes in the credit ratings or financial health of its top tenants (Caesars, MGM).
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with VICI
See how VICI Properties Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VICI Properties Inc VICI | $33.3B | 1.5 | 10.6 | $3.9B | 69.3% | 3.5% | |
American Tower Corp AMT | $82.5B | 1.4 | 32.6 | $10.6B | 23.8% | 5.1% | Compare → |
Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc GLPI | $13.5B | 0.8 | 16.3 | — | 51.7% | 4.1% | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
As of April 4, 2026, VICI Properties Inc has a DVR Score of 1.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of VICI Properties Inc?
VICI Properties Inc's market capitalization is approximately $33.3B. The company operates in the Real Estate sector within the REIT - Diversified industry.
What ticker symbol does VICI Properties Inc use?
VICI is the ticker symbol for VICI Properties Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for VICI stock?
Our analysis rates VICI Properties Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of VICI?
VICI Properties Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.6. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Does VICI Properties Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, VICI Properties Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 6.51%.
Is VICI Properties Inc's revenue growing?
VICI Properties Inc has reported revenue growth of 3.5%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is VICI stock profitable?
VICI Properties Inc has a profit margin of 69.3%. This indicates strong profitability.
How often is the VICI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of VICI Properties Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 4, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for VICI (VICI Properties Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.