TR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About TR Stock
We analyzed Tootsie Roll Industries Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran TR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Conservative. Here's what we found.
TR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Continued pressure from rising input costs, particularly cocoa and chocolate, could further erode gross and net margins, leading to sustained earnings declines and a contraction in the company's premium valuation multiple.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Conservative
Financial
Low
Market
Low
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Premium valuation (P/E 31.67) for a company with minimal revenue growth (+2% YoY) and declining net earnings (-2.2% YoY) in Q1 2026.
- ⚠
Family-controlled management prioritizing stability and dividends over growth, limiting aggressive strategic shifts for 10x potential.
- ⚠
Declining gross margins due to commodity cost pressures, indicating challenges in passing costs to consumers or achieving efficiency gains.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Continued increases in raw material costs (cocoa, sugar)
- 📅
Shift in consumer preferences away from traditional confectionery products
- 📅
Intensified competition from larger, more diversified food companies
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if gross margin falls below 30% for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if net earnings continue to decline YoY for 3+ consecutive quarters without clear path to recovery.
- 🚪
Significant and sustained decline in market share for core products.
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Investment Thesis
Tootsie Roll (TR) offers stability and brand resilience in a defensive consumer staples sector. It serves as a capital preservation play with a modest dividend, appealing to income-focused and highly conservative investors rather than those seeking high-growth or 10x returns. Its strong balance sheet provides a buffer against market volatility.
Is TR Stock Undervalued?
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TR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$42.60
Bull Case
$49.15
Bear Case
$36.33
Valuation Basis
Based on 30x TTM P/E applied to estimated $1.42 TTM EPS.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average around current levels for investors prioritizing stability and income over growth. No compelling technical entry points without specific support levels provided.
Exit Strategy
Take profit if valuation expands significantly (e.g., above 35x P/E without growth acceleration). Stop-loss at $38.00 if fundamental deterioration or market multiple contraction occurs.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for conservative portfolios seeking defensive, stable holdings with minimal growth expectations.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is TR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.38
PEG Ratio
-6.75
Price/Book
3.40
Price/Sales
4.10
Profitability
Gross Margin
35.28%
Operating Margin
13.78%
Net Margin
13.66%
Return on Equity
11.02%
Revenue Growth
1.29%
EPS
$1.34
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.27
Quick Ratio
2.35
Debt/Equity
0.01
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.46
Dividend Yield
0.84%
Does TR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is durable due to strong brand recognition and deeply ingrained consumer habits for its classic confectionery products. The low price point of its offerings also contributes to a resilient demand base.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Shifting consumer preferences towards healthier snacks and away from traditional candies.
- •Failure to innovate or adapt product lines to modern tastes and dietary trends.
- •Intense competition from larger, more diversified food and beverage conglomerates.
TR Competitive Moat Analysis
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TR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Limited retail investor discussion due to stable, non-growth profile).
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral (Analyst consensus 'Hold'; BlackRock holds 6.8%, but this is typically a passive institutional stake. Robertson Stephens initiating a small position is minor).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
VP & General Counsel Jeffrey S. Srulovitz filed Form 3 (initial beneficial ownership report) in April 2026. No transactions reported, indicating new executive ownership declaration, not buying/selling.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific unusual activity reported).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July/early August 2026 (for Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Low
Historical Earnings Pattern
Typically exhibits stable earnings with limited significant surprises, resulting in moderate stock price reactions unless there is a substantial deviation from expectations or a strategic announcement.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
HSY
Market Share Trend
Stable (Company primarily relies on established brand loyalty rather than aggressive market share expansion).
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium P/E (31.67) compared to many consumer staples peers with similar or higher growth rates, indicating overvaluation for its current growth profile.
Competitive Advantages
- •Strong brand recognition and loyalty (Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pop, etc.)
- •Established, efficient distribution network
- •Long-standing heritage and consumer trust
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive TR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings (Estimated late July/early August 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Potential for minor product line extensions (e.g., new flavors or seasonal items)
- •Inflationary pressures easing on cocoa/chocolate costs
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Continued stability and brand loyalty in confectionery market
- •Potential for small, non-transformative acquisitions to consolidate market share
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for TR?
- ✓
Any unexpected acceleration in organic revenue growth from new product launches or market expansion (highly unlikely).
- ✓
Significant and sustained improvement in gross margins due to effective cost management or pricing power.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with TR
See how Tootsie Roll Industries Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc TR | $3.1B | 1.0 | 31.4 | $196.3M | 13.7% | 1.3% |
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How Tootsie Roll Industries Inc Makes Money
Tootsie Roll Industries manufactures and sells a variety of classic confectionery products, primarily candies and lollipops, under iconic heritage brands such as Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Pop, Charleston Chew, and Junior Mints. The company's revenue is generated through the sale of these products to various retail channels including supermarkets, drug stores, and mass merchandisers across North America. Its business model relies on maintaining strong brand loyalty, efficient manufacturing, and broad distribution to ensure consistent demand and profitability.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TR)?
As of May 8, 2026, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has a DVR Score of 1.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc's market capitalization is approximately $3.1B..
What is the risk level for TR stock?
Our analysis rates Tootsie Roll Industries Inc's overall risk as Conservative. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of TR?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.4. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Tootsie Roll Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Tootsie Roll Industries Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.84%.
Is Tootsie Roll Industries Inc's revenue growing?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has reported revenue growth of 1.3%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is TR stock profitable?
Tootsie Roll Industries Inc has a profit margin of 13.7%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the TR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 8, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TR (Tootsie Roll Industries Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.