TPC Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Tutor Perini Corp
Industrials • Engineering & Construction
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About TPC Stock
We analyzed Tutor Perini Corp using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran TPC through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
TPC Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is that the recent strong performance (high revenue growth, robust FCF forecasts, higher-margin projects) is not sustainable due to the inherent cyclicality and project-specific nature of the construction business, leading to a reversion to historical 'struggles' with project claims and lower margins. Any major project loss or dispute could derail the current positive trajectory.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Construction is inherently capital-intensive and cyclical, limiting exponential growth opportunities compared to other sectors.
- ⚠
Low analyst coverage suggests limited market visibility or interest.
- ⚠
Reliance on large, complex projects means significant binary risk on individual project outcomes.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q1 2026 earnings miss or weak guidance
- 📅
Significant project delays or cost overruns
- 📅
Slowdown in new project awards due to economic factors
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 10% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if free cash flow turns negative or falls significantly short of projections for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Significant negative news regarding major project claims or cost overruns.
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What Does Tutor Perini Corp (TPC) Do?
Market Cap
$4.85B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Engineering & Construction
Employees
7,500
Tutor Perini Corporation, a construction company, provides diversified general contracting, construction management, and design-build services to private customers and public agencies worldwide. It operates through three segments: Civil, Building, and Specialty Contractors. The Civil segment engages in the public works construction and the replacement and reconstruction of infrastructure; and offers contracting services, including construction and rehabilitation of highways, bridges, tunnels, mass-transit systems, military defense facilities, and water management and wastewater treatment facilities, as well as provides drilling, foundation, and excavation support for shoring, bridges, piers, roads, and highway projects. The Building segment offers range of services in various specialized building markets, such as hospitality and gaming, transportation, health care, commercial offices, government facilities, sports and entertainment, education, correctional and detention facilities, biotech, pharmaceutical, industrial, and technology. The Specialty Contractors segment provides electrical, mechanical, plumbing, and fire protection systems, as well as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning services (HVAC) for civil and building construction projects in industrial, commercial, hospitality and gaming, and mass-transit end markets. It also offers pre-construction planning and project management services comprising planning and scheduling of the manpower, equipment, materials, and subcontractor services; and self-performed construction services consisting of site work, concrete forming and placement, and steel erection. The company was formerly known as Perini Corporation and changed its name to Tutor Perini Corporation in May 2009. Tutor Perini Corporation was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Sylmar, California.
Visit Tutor Perini Corp WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Tutor Perini Corp is undergoing a significant operational turnaround, marked by accelerating revenue growth (40%+ YoY), strong EPS beats, and robust free cash flow generation. Its substantial backlog of $20.6 billion, coupled with a strategic focus on higher-margin projects and improved contract terms, positions it to capitalize on sustained infrastructure spending. The company appears undervalued given its improved financial health and growth trajectory, making it an attractive turnaround play despite the inherent limitations of the construction sector for exponential growth.
Is TPC Stock Undervalued?
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TPC Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$117.30
Bull Case
$145.00
Bear Case
$76.50
Valuation Basis
23x forward P/E applied to mid-point FY26 EPS guidance of $5.10
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average on any dips from current levels; consider accumulating between $88-$92 if strong support holds.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $117-$120. Set a trailing stop-loss or exit if Q1 2026 earnings disappoint significantly or FCF guidance is reduced.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is TPC Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
60.35
Profitability
Gross Margin
11.68%
Operating Margin
4.18%
Net Margin
1.45%
Return on Equity
6.77%
Revenue Growth
28.11%
EPS
$1.51
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.27
Quick Ratio
1.27
Debt/Equity
0.33
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
$638.70M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.16
Dividend Yield
0.28%
Does TPC Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat endures due to the high capital requirements, specialized engineering expertise, and established reputation necessary to successfully bid on and execute large-scale, complex infrastructure and building projects. These barriers to entry limit new competition.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense competition in bidding for large projects.
- •Fluctuations in material costs and labor availability.
- •Risk of regulatory changes or increased scrutiny on large government contracts.
TPC Competitive Moat Analysis
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TPC Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (Limited social media discussion for construction firms, likely driven by financial news)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral/Positive (UBS raised PT, Massachusetts Financial Services Co. increased stake by 37.8% in Q4 2025).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Insiders acquired 35,000 shares worth $2,556,404 in the Q1 2026 period, indicating strong management conviction.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity provided in research)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock generally reacts positively to earnings beats; hit new 52-week high prior to Q1 2026 earnings, suggesting positive market anticipation.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
PRIM
Market Share Trend
Gaining (implied by strong backlog growth and focus on higher-margin projects)
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a reasonable forward P/E of ~18.2x, potentially undervalued given its recent 40%+ revenue growth compared to industry averages and strong FCF generation.
Competitive Advantages
- •Expertise in large, complex civil and building projects.
- •Strong relationships with government and institutional clients.
- •Improving operational efficiency and contract terms leading to higher margins.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive TPC Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Release on 2026-05-06
- •Continued positive momentum from infrastructure spending bills
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Realization of backlog projects at higher margins
- •Consistent achievement of FCF targets ($500M in FY2026)
- •Potential new significant contract awards in H2 2026
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Sustained national infrastructure investment over the next decade
- •Further operational efficiency improvements leading to margin expansion
- •Strategic diversification within the construction sector
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for TPC?
- ✓
Sustained acceleration in revenue growth (above 15-20% YoY)
- ✓
Consistent FCF generation exceeding annual targets ($500M+)
- ✓
Further expansion of backlog with higher-margin projects
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with TPC
See how Tutor Perini Corp compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tutor Perini Corp TPC | $4.9B | 6.2 | 60.3 | — | 1.4% | 28.1% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | $407.0B | 0.1 | 45.8 | $64.8B | 13.1% | 4.3% | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $306.2B | 0.1 | 35.9 | $45.9B | 20.0% | 18.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc HON | $134.7B | 1.5 | 29.8 | $37.4B | 11.4% | 3.6% | Compare → |
Primoris Services Corp PRIM | $7.7B | 0.1 | 32.4 | — | — | — | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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How Tutor Perini Corp Makes Money
Tutor Perini Corporation is a prominent general contractor specializing in complex civil infrastructure, building construction, and specialty contracting projects primarily across the United States. The company generates revenue by securing and executing large-scale, intricate construction contracts for both public sector entities (such as federal, state, and local governments) and private clients. Their business model thrives on their ability to manage technically challenging projects, leverage deep expertise, and ensure efficient delivery, often involving multi-year contracts that provide revenue visibility.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Tutor Perini Corp (TPC)?
As of May 1, 2026, Tutor Perini Corp has a DVR Score of 6.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Tutor Perini Corp?
Tutor Perini Corp's market capitalization is approximately $4.9B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Engineering & Construction industry.
What ticker symbol does Tutor Perini Corp use?
TPC is the ticker symbol for Tutor Perini Corp. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for TPC stock?
Our analysis rates Tutor Perini Corp's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of TPC?
Tutor Perini Corp currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 60.3. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Does Tutor Perini Corp pay a dividend?
Yes, Tutor Perini Corp pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 0.28%.
Is Tutor Perini Corp's revenue growing?
Tutor Perini Corp has reported revenue growth of 28.1%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is TPC stock profitable?
Tutor Perini Corp has a profit margin of 1.4%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the TPC DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Tutor Perini Corp is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 1, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TPC (Tutor Perini Corp) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.