TEM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis

Tempus AI Inc

Healthcare • Health Information Services

DVR Score

7.5

out of 10

Solid Pick

What You Need to Know About TEM Stock

We analyzed Tempus AI Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.

We ran TEM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.

Updated May 6, 2026Run Fresh Analysis →

TEM Risk Analysis & Red Flags

What Could Go Wrong

The company's significant cash burn (operating cash flow of -73.3M in Q1 2026) combined with widening net losses (-125.9M) poses a substantial financial risk. If their path to positive free cash flow is delayed beyond management's current guidance for adjusted EBITDA profitability, they may need further capital raises, potentially leading to significant shareholder dilution and a prolonged period of stock underperformance.

Risk Matrix

Overall

Aggressive

Financial

High

Market

Medium

Competitive

Medium

Execution

Medium

Regulatory

Medium

Red Flags

  • Net losses widening significantly in Q1 2026 despite revenue beat.

  • Negative operating cash flow of ($73.3M) in Q1 2026.

  • Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) with unfavorable estimate revisions.

  • Significant stock-based compensation ($52.7M in Q1) leading to ongoing dilution.

  • Net debt position of ~$85.5M (based on cash and total debt figures).

Upcoming Risk Events

  • 📅

    Q2 2026 earnings miss or downward revision of FY2026 guidance

  • 📅

    Increased competitive pressure from large healthcare players or other AI startups

  • 📅

    Regulatory changes impacting data privacy or diagnostic test approvals

When to Reconsider

  • 🚪

    Q2 2026 earnings show further deceleration in revenue growth (e.g., below 25% YoY).

  • 🚪

    Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY2026 is cut or actual results show continued negative trends.

  • 🚪

    Significant increase in long-term debt or further dilutive equity raises with no clear path to FCF positivity.

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What Does Tempus AI Inc (TEM) Do?

Market Cap

$10.01B

Sector

Healthcare

Industry

Health Information Services

Employees

2,400

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company. It engages in providing next generation sequencing diagnostics, polymerase chain reaction profiling, molecular genotyping, and other anatomic and molecular pathology testing to healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, researchers, and other third parties. The company offers Insights, a license library of linked clinical, molecular, and imaging de-identified data, as well as a suite of analytical services to analytic and cloud-and-compute tools to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and Trials that provides clinical trial matching services to pharmaceutical companies. In addition, it operates Next; Algos, a suite of algorithmic tests in oncology; Hub, a desktop and mobile platform for ordering, managing, and receiving tests and patient results; and Lens, a platform for researchers and scientists to find, access, and analyze Tempus data. The company has a strategic collaboration agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos AI, Inc. to develop therapeutic programs in oncology, as well as strategic collaboration with Personalis, Inc. and Whitehawk Therapeutics, Inc. The company was formerly known as Tempus Labs, Inc. and changed its name to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Tempus AI, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Visit Tempus AI Inc Website

Investment Thesis

Tempus AI is a high-growth leader in the transformative AI-driven precision medicine sector, particularly oncology. Its unique multi-modal data platform and scalable business model offer significant long-term growth potential as it converts its leading diagnostic and data assets into improving adjusted profitability and, eventually, positive free cash flow, driving substantial market re-rating.

Is TEM Stock Undervalued?

Tempus AI Inc. continues to operate in the high-growth, AI-driven precision medicine sector with a vast TAM and a strong strategic vision, bolstered by its proprietary multi-modal data library and recent acquisitions like Ambry. Q1 2026 earnings showed a revenue beat and strong gross margin expansion (63.8%), with exceptional MRD volume growth (+500% YoY), affirming its market position. However, significant concerns have emerged since the last analysis: revenue growth decelerated from 83% to 36.1% YoY, net losses widened substantially to ($125.9M), and the company remains cash flow negative. Despite an improving adjusted EBITDA trend and raised FY2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, the market reacted negatively, and Zacks issued a 'Sell' rating. The current financial health, characterized by ongoing cash burn and a net debt position, alongside negative short-term sentiment, has tempered the immediate 10x growth probability, though long-term potential remains.

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TEM Price Targets & Strategy

12-Month Target

$80.27

Bull Case

$110.00

Bear Case

$35.00

Valuation Basis

9x FY2026 Revenue ($1.6B guidance) / 179.4M estimated shares outstanding

Entry Strategy

Dollar-cost average between $45-$50, targeting recent support levels and accounting for post-earnings volatility. Current after-hours price of $50.16 is near this range.

Exit Strategy

Take 50% profit at $95-$100 (approaching 52-week high), stop-loss at $40 (below 52-week low to allow for volatility).

Portfolio Allocation

7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate.

Price Targets & Strategy

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Is TEM Financially Healthy?

Profitability

Gross Margin

62.74%

Operating Margin

-20.83%

Net Margin

-19.27%

Return on Equity

-59.95%

Revenue Growth

83.41%

EPS

$-1.41

Balance Sheet

Current Ratio

3.13

Quick Ratio

2.89

Debt/Equity

2.52

Total Debt

$1.34B

Cash & Equivalents

$759.64M

Cash Flow

EBITDA

-$170.57M

Other

Beta (Volatility)

2.42

Does TEM Have a Competitive Moat?

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Moat Rating

🛡️ Narrow

Moat Trend

Expanding

Moat Sources

3 Identified

Intangible Assets/IP (proprietary AI algorithms, extensive data library)Switching Costs (integration into clinical workflows, data dependency)Network Effects (more data enhances insights, attracting more partners/data)

The moat is strengthening as Tempus continues to accumulate proprietary multi-modal data, which becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate. The deep integration of its AI platform into oncology research and treatment workflows also creates significant switching costs for healthcare providers and pharmaceutical partners.

Moat Erosion Risks

  • Emergence of a superior AI platform or data aggregation model from a well-funded competitor.
  • Loss of key data-sharing partnerships or inability to expand data contributions.
  • Regulatory challenges impacting data collection, privacy, or diagnostic approval processes.

TEM Competitive Moat Analysis

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TEM Market Intelligence

Sentiment & Insider Activity

Social Sentiment

Neutral. Despite long-term bullish community interest in AI in healthcare, recent earnings and stock decline may temper short-term retail enthusiasm.

Institutional Sentiment

Negative. Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and unfavorable estimate revision trend indicates a cautious or negative institutional outlook post-Q1 earnings. Previous backers like Cathie Wood and Nancy Pelosi are noted, but recent activity not detailed.

Insider Activity (Form 4)

No specific Form 4 filings detailed in provided search results for the last 90 days. Prior investments by Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) and Nancy Pelosi were noted in older reports.

Options Flow

Normal options activity. No unusual put/call ratios or significant institutional options buying/selling detected in the provided data.

Earnings Intelligence

Next Earnings

Estimated late July/early August 2026

Surprise Probability

Medium

Historical Earnings Pattern

Stock shows volatility post-earnings; a revenue beat coupled with widening net losses (as in Q1 2026) can lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue growth rate (YoY)Progress towards positive Adjusted EBITDA and improved net lossOperating cash flow trendsFY2026 guidance updates

Competitive Position

Top Competitor

GH (Guardant Health)

Market Share Trend

Gaining market share, particularly in high-growth areas like MRD, driven by platform expansion and strategic acquisitions.

Valuation vs Peers

Trading at a high forward P/S multiple (approx. 5.6x FY26 revenue) compared to some established diagnostics companies, reflecting its high growth potential and AI integration, but potentially at a discount to other pure-play AI healthcare platforms if they exist.

Competitive Advantages

  • Proprietary multi-modal data library (genomic, clinical, imaging, etc.)
  • AI-driven diagnostic platform offering precision medicine insights
  • Strategic partnerships and robust oncology diagnostics portfolio

Market Intelligence

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What Could Drive TEM Stock Higher?

Near-Term (0-6 months)

  • Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late July/early August 2026)
  • Continued significant growth in MRD test volumes
  • Strategic partnerships or expanded platform integrations

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

  • Achievement of positive adjusted EBITDA for FY2026 as per guidance (~$65M)
  • Expansion of multi-modal data library and AI diagnostic capabilities
  • New product/service launches or deeper penetration into new oncology sub-segments

Long-Term (18+ months)

  • Demonstrated path to sustained net profitability and positive free cash flow
  • Disruption of traditional diagnostics market with AI-driven insights
  • Establishment as a dominant AI platform in precision medicine

Catalysts & Growth Drivers

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What's the Bull Case for TEM?

  • Acceleration in revenue growth beyond current 36% YoY.

  • Achievement and sustained growth in positive Adjusted EBITDA.

  • Clear path and timeline communicated for achieving positive free cash flow.

Bull Case Analysis

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Competing with TEM

See how Tempus AI Inc compares to related companies

CompanyMarket CapDVR ScoreP/ERevenueProfit MarginRev Growth

Tempus AI Inc

TEM

$10.0B7.5$1.1B-19.3%83.4%

AbbVie Inc

ABBV

$381.1B0.1104.8$15.0B5.8%9.5%Compare →

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

$557.1B1.026.521.8%7.9%Compare →

Eli Lilly and Co

LLY

$965.0B0.552.6Compare →

Pfizer Inc

PFE

$146.4B4.019.5$62.6B11.8%1.4%Compare →

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

$365.5B0.330.3$447.6B2.7%9.7%Compare →

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How Tempus AI Inc Makes Money

Tempus AI operates as an AI-driven precision medicine company that collects and analyzes vast amounts of clinical and molecular data to help physicians make personalized treatment decisions for cancer patients and to assist life science companies in drug discovery and development. It essentially provides 'intelligent' diagnostics and data insights that accelerate the understanding and treatment of disease, primarily in oncology.

Read Full Business Model Breakdown

FAQ

What is the DVR Score for Tempus AI Inc (TEM)?

As of May 6, 2026, Tempus AI Inc has a DVR Score of 7.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.

What is the market capitalization of Tempus AI Inc?

Tempus AI Inc's market capitalization is approximately $10.0B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Health Information Services industry.

What ticker symbol does Tempus AI Inc use?

TEM is the ticker symbol for Tempus AI Inc. The company trades on the NMS.

What is the risk level for TEM stock?

Our analysis rates Tempus AI Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.

Is Tempus AI Inc's revenue growing?

Tempus AI Inc has reported revenue growth of 83.4%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.

Is TEM stock profitable?

Tempus AI Inc has a profit margin of -19.3%. The company is currently unprofitable.

How often is the TEM DVR analysis updated?

Our AI-powered analysis of Tempus AI Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 6, 2026.

Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice

Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TEM (Tempus AI Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.

All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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