TEM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Tempus AI Inc
Healthcare • Health Information Services
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About TEM Stock
We analyzed Tempus AI Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran TEM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
TEM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company's significant cash burn (operating cash flow of -73.3M in Q1 2026) combined with widening net losses (-125.9M) poses a substantial financial risk. If their path to positive free cash flow is delayed beyond management's current guidance for adjusted EBITDA profitability, they may need further capital raises, potentially leading to significant shareholder dilution and a prolonged period of stock underperformance.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Net losses widening significantly in Q1 2026 despite revenue beat.
- ⚠
Negative operating cash flow of ($73.3M) in Q1 2026.
- ⚠
Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) with unfavorable estimate revisions.
- ⚠
Significant stock-based compensation ($52.7M in Q1) leading to ongoing dilution.
- ⚠
Net debt position of ~$85.5M (based on cash and total debt figures).
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 earnings miss or downward revision of FY2026 guidance
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure from large healthcare players or other AI startups
- 📅
Regulatory changes impacting data privacy or diagnostic test approvals
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Q2 2026 earnings show further deceleration in revenue growth (e.g., below 25% YoY).
- 🚪
Adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY2026 is cut or actual results show continued negative trends.
- 🚪
Significant increase in long-term debt or further dilutive equity raises with no clear path to FCF positivity.
Unlock TEM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Tempus AI Inc (TEM) Do?
Market Cap
$10.01B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Health Information Services
Employees
2,400
Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company. It engages in providing next generation sequencing diagnostics, polymerase chain reaction profiling, molecular genotyping, and other anatomic and molecular pathology testing to healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, researchers, and other third parties. The company offers Insights, a license library of linked clinical, molecular, and imaging de-identified data, as well as a suite of analytical services to analytic and cloud-and-compute tools to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and Trials that provides clinical trial matching services to pharmaceutical companies. In addition, it operates Next; Algos, a suite of algorithmic tests in oncology; Hub, a desktop and mobile platform for ordering, managing, and receiving tests and patient results; and Lens, a platform for researchers and scientists to find, access, and analyze Tempus data. The company has a strategic collaboration agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos AI, Inc. to develop therapeutic programs in oncology, as well as strategic collaboration with Personalis, Inc. and Whitehawk Therapeutics, Inc. The company was formerly known as Tempus Labs, Inc. and changed its name to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Tempus AI, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Visit Tempus AI Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Tempus AI is a high-growth leader in the transformative AI-driven precision medicine sector, particularly oncology. Its unique multi-modal data platform and scalable business model offer significant long-term growth potential as it converts its leading diagnostic and data assets into improving adjusted profitability and, eventually, positive free cash flow, driving substantial market re-rating.
Is TEM Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for TEM
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
TEM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$80.27
Bull Case
$110.00
Bear Case
$35.00
Valuation Basis
9x FY2026 Revenue ($1.6B guidance) / 179.4M estimated shares outstanding
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $45-$50, targeting recent support levels and accounting for post-earnings volatility. Current after-hours price of $50.16 is near this range.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $95-$100 (approaching 52-week high), stop-loss at $40 (below 52-week low to allow for volatility).
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate.
Price Targets & Strategy
Sign up free to unlock price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is TEM Financially Healthy?
Profitability
Gross Margin
62.74%
Operating Margin
-20.83%
Net Margin
-19.27%
Return on Equity
-59.95%
Revenue Growth
83.41%
EPS
$-1.41
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.13
Quick Ratio
2.89
Debt/Equity
2.52
Total Debt
$1.34B
Cash & Equivalents
$759.64M
Cash Flow
EBITDA
-$170.57M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.42
Does TEM Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is strengthening as Tempus continues to accumulate proprietary multi-modal data, which becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate. The deep integration of its AI platform into oncology research and treatment workflows also creates significant switching costs for healthcare providers and pharmaceutical partners.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Emergence of a superior AI platform or data aggregation model from a well-funded competitor.
- •Loss of key data-sharing partnerships or inability to expand data contributions.
- •Regulatory challenges impacting data collection, privacy, or diagnostic approval processes.
TEM Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
TEM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. Despite long-term bullish community interest in AI in healthcare, recent earnings and stock decline may temper short-term retail enthusiasm.
Institutional Sentiment
Negative. Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and unfavorable estimate revision trend indicates a cautious or negative institutional outlook post-Q1 earnings. Previous backers like Cathie Wood and Nancy Pelosi are noted, but recent activity not detailed.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings detailed in provided search results for the last 90 days. Prior investments by Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) and Nancy Pelosi were noted in older reports.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No unusual put/call ratios or significant institutional options buying/selling detected in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July/early August 2026
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Stock shows volatility post-earnings; a revenue beat coupled with widening net losses (as in Q1 2026) can lead to a negative market reaction.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
GH (Guardant Health)
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share, particularly in high-growth areas like MRD, driven by platform expansion and strategic acquisitions.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a high forward P/S multiple (approx. 5.6x FY26 revenue) compared to some established diagnostics companies, reflecting its high growth potential and AI integration, but potentially at a discount to other pure-play AI healthcare platforms if they exist.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary multi-modal data library (genomic, clinical, imaging, etc.)
- •AI-driven diagnostic platform offering precision medicine insights
- •Strategic partnerships and robust oncology diagnostics portfolio
Market Intelligence
Sign up free to unlock sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis
What Could Drive TEM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late July/early August 2026)
- •Continued significant growth in MRD test volumes
- •Strategic partnerships or expanded platform integrations
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Achievement of positive adjusted EBITDA for FY2026 as per guidance (~$65M)
- •Expansion of multi-modal data library and AI diagnostic capabilities
- •New product/service launches or deeper penetration into new oncology sub-segments
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Demonstrated path to sustained net profitability and positive free cash flow
- •Disruption of traditional diagnostics market with AI-driven insights
- •Establishment as a dominant AI platform in precision medicine
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Sign up free to see growth catalysts
What's the Bull Case for TEM?
- ✓
Acceleration in revenue growth beyond current 36% YoY.
- ✓
Achievement and sustained growth in positive Adjusted EBITDA.
- ✓
Clear path and timeline communicated for achieving positive free cash flow.
Bull Case Analysis
Sign up free to see the bull case
Competing with TEM
See how Tempus AI Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tempus AI Inc TEM | $10.0B | 7.5 | — | $1.1B | -19.3% | 83.4% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Tempus AI Inc Makes Money
Tempus AI operates as an AI-driven precision medicine company that collects and analyzes vast amounts of clinical and molecular data to help physicians make personalized treatment decisions for cancer patients and to assist life science companies in drug discovery and development. It essentially provides 'intelligent' diagnostics and data insights that accelerate the understanding and treatment of disease, primarily in oncology.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Tempus AI Inc (TEM)?
As of May 6, 2026, Tempus AI Inc has a DVR Score of 7.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Tempus AI Inc?
Tempus AI Inc's market capitalization is approximately $10.0B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Health Information Services industry.
What ticker symbol does Tempus AI Inc use?
TEM is the ticker symbol for Tempus AI Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for TEM stock?
Our analysis rates Tempus AI Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
Is Tempus AI Inc's revenue growing?
Tempus AI Inc has reported revenue growth of 83.4%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is TEM stock profitable?
Tempus AI Inc has a profit margin of -19.3%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the TEM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Tempus AI Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 6, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for TEM (Tempus AI Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.