SDGR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Schrodinger Inc
Healthcare • Health Information Services
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About SDGR Stock
We analyzed Schrodinger Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran SDGR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
SDGR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company's substantial cash burn, inherent to its R&D-intensive drug discovery model, poses a significant financial risk. Should SDGR fail to convert its platform into increasingly profitable drug discovery collaborations or successful internal pipeline assets that generate meaningful revenue or milestone payments within the next 18-24 months, its $406M cash position could erode faster than anticipated, necessitating dilutive fundraising.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 EPS miss of $0.06 per share, signaling challenges in managing expenses or generating sufficient revenue.
- ⚠
Departure of Chief Commercial Officer Mannix Aklian in May 2026, creating uncertainty in commercial strategy and execution.
- ⚠
High short interest at 15.47% of the public float (as of May 15, 2026), indicating significant negative sentiment among some investors.
- ⚠
Implied downward trend in analyst price targets, with mentions of prior cuts from $24 and $18 to around $13.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 earnings miss (August 5, 2026): A further miss on EPS or failure to meet revenue expectations, particularly in the drug discovery segment, would severely impact confidence.
- 📅
Failure to secure permanent CCO (Q3 2026): Prolonged absence of a permanent Chief Commercial Officer could signal internal challenges and hinder sales/marketing efforts, potentially impacting full-year revenue targets.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly drug discovery revenue growth falls below 50% YoY for two consecutive quarters, indicating a slowdown in platform validation.
- 🚪
Sell if cash and cash equivalents (last reported $406M) drop below $200M without a clear, non-dilutive funding path or a confirmed pathway to profitability.
- 🚪
Exit if overall market cap drops below $700M for more than 30 days, suggesting a fundamental breakdown in the growth thesis.
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What Does Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) Do?
Market Cap
$1.07B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Health Information Services
Employees
891
Schrödinger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops physics-based computational platform that enables discovery of novel molecules for drug development and materials applications. The company operates in two segments, Software and Drug Discovery. The Software segment sells its software to transform molecular discovery for life sciences and materials science industries. The Drug Discovery segment focuses on building a portfolio of preclinical and clinical programs, internally and through collaborations. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Novartis Pharma AG to advance multiple development candidates. Schrödinger, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in New York, New York.
Visit Schrodinger Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Schrödinger leverages its validated physics-based drug discovery platform to consistently sign high-value, milestone-rich pharmaceutical collaborations and successfully advances multiple internal drug candidates through preclinical development, as evidenced by sustained 50%+ YoY drug discovery revenue growth and increasing software ACV, then the company can achieve a $7B-$10B market cap (7-10x current) within 3-5 years as it moves closer to cash flow positivity and capitalizes on its significant lead in AI-driven drug discovery, a re-rating that the current market valuation does not yet fully reflect.
Is SDGR Stock Undervalued?
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SDGR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$28.00
Bull Case
$40.00
Bear Case
$10.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 8x estimated FY2026 revenue of $220M, yielding a market cap of $1.76B, divided by 64.66M shares outstanding.
Entry Strategy
Accumulate between $13-$15, targeting dips towards recent lows. The $13 area is noted as a potential analyst target and represents prior support.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $28, reassess at $40 for further upside potential. Place a stop-loss at $10 to protect capital against sustained operational setbacks.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for aggressive risk tolerance, reflecting high growth potential with significant near-term volatility.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is SDGR Financially Healthy?
Profitability
Gross Margin
55.33%
Operating Margin
-64.65%
Net Margin
-40.60%
Return on Equity
-30.85%
Revenue Growth
10.59%
EPS
$-1.40
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.75
Quick Ratio
2.68
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.64
Does SDGR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat derives from Schrödinger's deeply integrated physics-based computational platform, which is difficult and expensive to replicate. As more experimental data feeds into their algorithms, the platform's predictive power grows, increasing its competitive advantage and customer stickiness. The high switching costs for pharma clients once they integrate Schrödinger's software into their workflows also contribute to its durability.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Emergence of superior, open-source computational chemistry tools or new AI drug discovery platforms that offer comparable capabilities at a lower cost.
- •Failure to continuously innovate and update their platform, allowing competitors to catch up or surpass their technological lead.
SDGR Competitive Moat Analysis
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SDGR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. While the underlying technology garners interest, recent operational news and continued losses temper broad bullish enthusiasm.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral. While Rubric Capital holds a significant 9.28% stake, the mention of analyst target cuts from $24 and $18 to $13 suggests a mixed or cautious stance from the broader institutional community.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 insider buying or selling activity found in the last 90 days. Rubric Capital Management disclosed a 9.28% passive beneficial ownership (6,000,000 shares) via a Schedule 13G/A filing in May 2026, reflecting a significant institutional stake.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No highly unusual put/call ratio or large block trades observed in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-05 (Q2 2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, SDGR's stock price has shown volatility around earnings, reacting strongly to shifts in drug discovery revenue trends, partnership announcements, and updates on the path to profitability, often leading to significant movements on guidance changes.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)
Market Share Trend
Gaining. Schrödinger is expanding its footprint in computational drug discovery through its differentiated physics-based platform and growing number of collaborations, attracting major pharma partners.
Valuation vs Peers
Schrödinger typically trades at a premium to some traditional biotech peers on a P/S basis due to its software-first model and higher gross margins, but still within a similar range to other AI-driven drug discovery platforms given its pre-profitability stage.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary physics-based computational platform with integrated machine learning capabilities.
- •Validated platform with successful drug discovery partnerships (e.g., Ajax Therapeutics).
- •Extensive IP portfolio in computational chemistry and materials science.
- •High switching costs for large enterprise clients adopting their software suite.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive SDGR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 earnings (August 5, 2026): Key focus on drug discovery revenue growth, software ACV, and any updates on commercial leadership search or further guidance reaffirmation.
- •New software licensing deals: Specific announcements of significant new enterprise clients for the Schrödinger platform, ideally exceeding previous ACV growth rates.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Internal pipeline asset progression (H2 2026 - H1 2027): Advancement of at least one internal development candidate (e.g., CDC7 inhibitor) into preclinical or clinical stages, validating the end-to-end platform capability.
- •Strategic drug discovery collaboration (next 12-18 months): Announcement of a new, material collaboration with a major pharmaceutical company, similar in scope or validation to the Ajax Therapeutics acquisition by Eli Lilly.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •First proprietary drug reaches market (2029+): Successful regulatory approval and commercialization of a drug discovered and developed internally by Schrödinger, demonstrating full platform value chain and royalty generation.
- •Platform becomes industry standard (2028+): Schrödinger's software suite and services achieve dominant market share (>50%) in computational drug discovery, creating a formidable switching cost moat for large pharma and biotech clients.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for SDGR?
- ✓
Watch quarterly drug discovery revenue growth: Sustained 70%+ YoY growth for two consecutive quarters would strongly validate the platform's commercial traction.
- ✓
Monitor gross margin expansion: Improvement in gross margins (especially software) beyond 75% would signal improved operating leverage and a clearer path to profitability.
- ✓
Track internal pipeline progression: Any announcement of a proprietary drug candidate entering clinical trials (Phase 1 or 2) would be a significant de-risking event and catalyst.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with SDGR
See how Schrodinger Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Schrodinger Inc SDGR | $1.1B | 7.9 | — | $254.9M | -40.6% | 10.6% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Schrodinger Inc Makes Money
Schrödinger Inc. is a life sciences and materials science company that develops and applies its proprietary physics-based computational platform to accelerate drug discovery and materials design. They generate revenue primarily through two segments: software licensing, where they provide their advanced computational tools to pharmaceutical companies, biotech firms, and academic institutions on a subscription basis; and drug discovery collaborations, where they partner with pharmaceutical companies to discover and develop novel drug candidates, earning milestone payments and potential royalties on future sales. This hybrid model leverages the scalability of software with the high-upside potential of drug development.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
As of June 7, 2026, Schrodinger Inc has a DVR Score of 7.9 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Schrodinger Inc?
Schrodinger Inc's market capitalization is approximately $1.1B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Health Information Services industry.
What ticker symbol does Schrodinger Inc use?
SDGR is the ticker symbol for Schrodinger Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for SDGR stock?
Our analysis rates Schrodinger Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
Is Schrodinger Inc's revenue growing?
Schrodinger Inc has reported revenue growth of 10.6%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is SDGR stock profitable?
Schrodinger Inc has a profit margin of -40.6%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the SDGR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Schrodinger Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 7, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for SDGR (Schrodinger Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.