REPL Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Replimune Group Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About REPL Stock
We analyzed Replimune Group Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran REPL through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
REPL Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The company could fail to find a viable path forward for its lead candidate, RP1, after the second FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL), leading to a prolonged delay in commercialization (potentially 3-5+ years) or even program termination. This would erode their ~$308M cash runway without generating significant revenue, necessitating further dilutive financing at a depressed valuation and making 10x growth within 3-5 years nearly impossible.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
High
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Second FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL) for RP1 BLA: Pivotal IGNYTE trial was deemed inadequate for effectiveness, a critical regulatory failure for the lead asset.
- ⚠
~62-64% Stock Price Decline: Immediate and severe market re-evaluation following the CRL, signaling a significant loss of confidence and valuation. Market cap dropped from over $1B to $0.41B.
- ⚠
Analyst Downgrades & Price Target Cuts: Multiple reputable firms reduced targets into the $2-$4 range from a previous median of $22, reflecting deep pessimism.
- ⚠
Law Firm Investigations: Pomerantz and Johnson Fistel initiating probes into possible securities-law issues adds legal and reputational risk, potentially leading to financial penalties.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Further negative feedback from FDA regarding RP1, indicating a prohibitively long/costly path to approval or program termination - Q3/Q4 2026.
- 📅
Negative data readout from ongoing clinical trials for RP2 or RP3, leading to program termination or significant delays and further eroding pipeline value - H2 2026 to H1 2027.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Failure to provide a clear, feasible path forward for RP1 with the FDA (e.g., new trial design, BLA resubmission timeline) by Q4 2026.
- 🚪
Cash and cash equivalents drop below $150M without a clear, non-dilutive funding source or revenue path.
- 🚪
Negative Phase 2/3 clinical data for any other pipeline asset (RP2, RP3) announced in 2027, indicating broader platform challenges.
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What Does Replimune Group Inc (REPL) Do?
Market Cap
$405.43M
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
479
Replimune Group, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of oncolytic immunotherapies to treat cancer. The company's proprietary oncolytic immunotherapy product candidates are designed and intended to activate the immune system against cancer. Its lead product candidate is RP1, a selectively replicating version of HSV-1 that expresses GALV-GP R(-) and human GM-CSF for a range of solid tumors. The company is also developing RP2 that express an anti-CTLA-4 antibody-like protein to block the inhibition of the immune response otherwise caused by CTLA-4; and RP3, which express immune-activating proteins that stimulate T cells. Replimune Group, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Woburn, Massachusetts.
Visit Replimune Group Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Replimune can successfully re-engage with the FDA to define a clear, expedited new pivotal trial path for RP1 or accelerate RP2/RP3's development into late-stage trials with compelling data (e.g., >30% ORR in a refractory population) within the next 12-18 months, then the market could re-rate its ~$410M market cap towards a ~$1.5-$2B valuation, reflecting renewed confidence in its oncolytic immunotherapy platform's commercial potential by 2028-2029. This is bullish because the current valuation reflects extreme pessimism, essentially valuing the pipeline at a significant discount to its cash.
Is REPL Stock Undervalued?
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REPL Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$7.00
Bull Case
$12.00
Bear Case
$3.00
Valuation Basis
Based on assigning an enterprise value of $280M to the remaining pipeline assets and future RP1 potential, plus an estimated ~$300M cash runway, divided by approximately 83M shares outstanding.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $4.50-$5.50 range, near current support levels, acknowledging extreme volatility and speculative nature.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $10.00 if significant positive catalyst emerges; Stop-loss at $3.50 if no clear path forward for RP1 or cash burn accelerates significantly.
Portfolio Allocation
1-3% for aggressive risk tolerance, only as a highly speculative position.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is REPL Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-1.43
Forward P/E
1.00
PEG Ratio
1.00
Price/Book
0.91
Profitability
Return on Equity
-102.69%
EPS
$-3.44
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
7.95
Quick Ratio
7.82
Debt/Equity
0.17
Cash & Equivalents
$269.14M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
-$65.96M
Free Cash Flow
-$66.09M
EBITDA
-$67.60M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.30
Does REPL Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Eroding
Moat Sources
1 Identified
The moat's durability is now severely challenged. While the underlying scientific platform and IP are valuable, the failure to translate them into an approved commercial product (RP1) significantly delays its ability to build market share and establish a durable competitive advantage against larger and faster-moving competitors.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Continued failure to achieve regulatory approval for any pipeline asset, effectively nullifying the value of its core IP.
- •Competitors developing and launching more effective or faster-to-market oncolytic immunotherapies or other next-generation cancer therapies.
REPL Competitive Moat Analysis
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REPL Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bearish
Institutional Sentiment
Negative (Widespread analyst downgrades and target cuts from H.C. Wainwright, Leerink, Wedbush, JPMorgan, Jefferies, Piper Sandler, and Cantor Fitzgerald following the FDA CRL).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Director Philip Astley-Sparke sold 17,657 shares (~$89,800) and CAO sold 7,894 shares ($40,101) on 2026-05-18; both cited as 'sell to cover' tax withholding and non-discretionary. Remaining direct holdings for Astley-Sparke are 1,412,414 shares.
Options Flow
Normal options activity.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Q2 2026 earnings, likely mid-August 2026 (not independently verified for exact date).
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Recent market reaction to the FDA CRL was a severe stock sell-off (~60%). Q1 2026 EPS beat estimates ($0.01 vs -$0.6324 estimate), but this did not prevent the larger regulatory-driven downturn.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Amgen (T-VEC)
Market Share Trend
Not applicable as pre-revenue; FDA setback means it is losing ground in the race to market for novel oncolytic immunotherapies.
Valuation vs Peers
Currently trading at a significant discount to its prior pipeline valuation (implied by previous price targets) and with a very low Enterprise Value (~$102M) relative to its cash, suggesting extreme market pessimism compared to established immuno-oncology players.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary oncolytic HSV platform designed for enhanced anti-tumor immunity and combination therapies.
- •Strategic clinical partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb (for nivolumab combination, despite RP1 setback).
- •Diverse pipeline of intratumoral therapies (RP1, RP2, RP3) targeting multiple oncology indications.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive REPL Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Replimune's guidance/clarity on next steps for RP1 BLA (e.g., FDA meeting outcome, new clinical trial design, partnership terms) - Q3/Q4 2026. This would provide a path forward.
- •Presentation of updated clinical data for RP1 (from other trials) or initial data for RP2/RP3 at major oncology conferences (e.g., ESMO, SITC) in H2 2026. This could demonstrate pipeline strength.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Initiation of a new pivotal trial for RP1 (if advised by FDA) or progression of RP2/RP3 into later-stage clinical trials (Phase 2/3 initiation) - H1/H2 2027. This would re-establish a clear development timeline.
- •Expansion of Bristol Myers Squibb partnership into new indications or pipeline assets, signaling continued confidence and non-dilutive funding - H1/H2 2027.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Positive Phase 3 data for RP2 or RP3 in an oncology indication, leading to BLA submission by 2029, potentially unlocking multi-billion dollar market opportunities.
- •Successful commercial launch of a Replimune product (RP2/RP3) by 2030, establishing a foothold in the oncolytic immunotherapy market and demonstrating platform validation.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for REPL?
- ✓
Official FDA meeting minutes/guidance regarding RP1 re-submission pathway or new trial design, providing clear actionable steps.
- ✓
Announcement of Phase 2/3 initiation for RP2 or RP3 with specific target indications and timelines.
- ✓
Cash burn rate maintaining below $60M per quarter for the next 4 quarters, indicating fiscal discipline during pipeline pivot.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with REPL
See how Replimune Group Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Replimune Group Inc REPL | $405.4M | 4.5 | -1.4 | — | — | — | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Replimune Group Inc Makes Money
Replimune Group Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops oncolytic immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. Their approach involves using genetically engineered viruses that selectively replicate in cancer cells and also stimulate an anti-tumor immune response. The company generates no significant revenue currently, relying on capital raises and partnerships to fund its extensive research and development efforts, with the ultimate goal of commercializing its pipeline products to generate sales from pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, and healthcare providers.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Replimune Group Inc (REPL)?
As of May 24, 2026, Replimune Group Inc has a DVR Score of 4.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Replimune Group Inc?
Replimune Group Inc's market capitalization is approximately $405.4M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Replimune Group Inc use?
REPL is the ticker symbol for Replimune Group Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for REPL stock?
Our analysis rates Replimune Group Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of REPL?
Replimune Group Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -1.4. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
How often is the REPL DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Replimune Group Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 24, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for REPL (Replimune Group Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.