RBRK Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Rubrik Inc
Technology • Software - Infrastructure
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About RBRK Stock
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We ran RBRK through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
RBRK Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk is Rubrik's ability to maintain its high subscription ARR growth (currently 32% YoY) amidst fierce competition from established players and nimble startups. If growth decelerates significantly below 20% YoY over the next 12-18 months due to competitive pressures or a slowdown in enterprise IT spending, its premium valuation multiple could compress by 20-30%, leading to a substantial stock price decline.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
CFO Kiran Kumar Choudary sold 122,613 shares on March 24, 2026, which while not an unusually large sale, is an insider sale.
- ⚠
The company trades at a P/S of 10.6x, significantly higher than the U.S. software industry average of 3.8x and peer average of 8.3x, demanding sustained high growth.
- ⚠
Despite narrowing, the company still reported a net loss of ($41.85 million) in Q1 FY2027, indicating it is not yet GAAP profitable.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report (estimated September 8, 2026): Missing consensus estimates or lowering guidance could lead to a 10-15% stock price correction.
- 📅
Aggressive competitive pricing or new product launches from Veeam or Cohesity (next 12 months): Could put pressure on Rubrik's ARR growth, causing a 5-10% deceleration from the current 32% YoY rate.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly Subscription ARR growth falls below 20% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if free cash flow margin turns consistently negative for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Exit if the P/S multiple compresses to below 7.0x for reasons other than broad market re-rating.
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What Does Rubrik Inc (RBRK) Do?
Market Cap
$14.25B
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Employees
3,200
Rubrik, Inc. provides data security solutions to individuals and businesses worldwide. The company offers enterprise data protection, unstructured data protection, cloud data protection, SaaS data protection solutions, and identity provider services protection; data threat analytics; data security posture; and cyber recovery solutions. It serves financial, retail, trade, transportation, energy, industrial, healthcare and life science, education, technology, media, communications, services, and public sectors. Rubrik, Inc. was formerly known as Scaledata, Inc. and changed its name to Rubrik, Inc. in October 2014. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Palo Alto, California.
Visit Rubrik Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Rubrik sustains its subscription ARR growth above 30% YoY for the next 18-24 months by successfully converting its installed base to SaaS and capturing market share in cyber resilience, and simultaneously expands its FCF margins to 25%+, then its market capitalization could reach $35-45B (2.5-3.2x current) as the market re-rates its long-term profitability and market leadership. This is bullish because the escalating criticality of data security against ransomware is creating an unprecedented demand that Rubrik's focused platform is uniquely positioned to address.
Is RBRK Stock Undervalued?
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RBRK Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$89.85
Bull Case
$110.00
Bear Case
$65.00
Valuation Basis
9.5x P/ARR multiple applied to projected FY2028 ARR of $1.95B (based on 30%+ annual growth from current $1.57B ARR) divided by ~205.9M shares outstanding.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $65-$70, scaling into the position on any dips towards recent support levels or following Q2 FY227 earnings.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $100, monitor for signs of ARR growth deceleration or FCF margin compression. Stop loss at $60 (a break below analyst low target and potential support).
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is RBRK Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-39.00
Forward P/E
6.00
EV/EBITDA
-52.54
PEG Ratio
-0.68
Price/Book
8.62
Price/Sales
12.73
Profitability
Gross Margin
80.58%
Operating Margin
-21.87%
Net Margin
-20.25%
Return on Equity
-74.60%
Revenue Growth
45.73%
EPS
$-1.45
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.69
Quick Ratio
1.57
Debt/Equity
1.61
Total Debt
$1.17B
Cash & Equivalents
$1.60B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$273.46M
Free Cash Flow
$256.78M
EBITDA
-$291.10M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.18
Does RBRK Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is durable for 10-15 years, primarily due to the sticky nature of mission-critical data security solutions and Rubrik's proprietary technology for ransomware recovery. Enterprises invest heavily in these systems, making switching complex and costly.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid technological shifts and emergence of superior AI-driven data security platforms from competitors.
- •Aggressive bundling and pricing strategies by large incumbent players (e.g., Dell, Broadcom) eroding Rubrik's market share.
- •Potential for data breaches or service outages, which could severely damage brand trust and reputation.
RBRK Competitive Moat Analysis
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RBRK Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bullish, driven by strong Q1 earnings beat and positive future outlook.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with 49.54% institutional ownership and a 'Moderate Buy' analyst consensus. Recent target adjustments by some analysts (e.g., Goldman Sachs lowering to $80) indicate some caution, but the overall sentiment remains optimistic.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CFO Kiran Kumar Choudary sold 122,613 shares on March 24, 2026. No other verifiable Form 4 filings for the full 90-day period were provided in the research.
Options Flow
Normal options activity.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated September 8, 2026 (Q2 FY2027)
Surprise Probability
Medium-High
Historical Earnings Pattern
Rubrik has a history of beating revenue and EPS estimates, often leading to a positive stock price reaction post-earnings, especially when guidance is raised.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
VEEAM
Market Share Trend
Gaining, driven by strong subscription growth and strategic focus on cyber resilience solutions.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a significant premium to the sector and peers on P/S (10.6x vs 8.3x peer average), justified by higher growth rates and strategic positioning in an expanding market.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary Zero Trust Data Security platform designed for cyber resilience.
- •Strong focus and execution on cloud-native SaaS subscription model.
- •High switching costs for enterprise customers due to mission-critical data protection.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive RBRK Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2027 Earnings Report (estimated September 8, 2026): Beat consensus revenue ($395M-$397M) and Adjusted EPS ($0.03-$0.05) to signal continued strong execution and further guidance raises.
- •Integration of new Global System Integrators and Managed Service Provider Lead, Amit Nehru (Q2/Q3 FY2027): Successful channel expansion leading to a 10%+ acceleration in new customer ARR via partners.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of Zero Trust Data Security platform features (next 6-12 months): Introduction of new AI-driven ransomware recovery capabilities that secure >20 new Fortune 500 clients, adding $100M+ in ARR.
- •Key enterprise customer wins in highly regulated industries (e.g., financial services, government) within FY2027: Securing 5-10 major deals, each valued at $5M+ in ARR, validating mission-critical status.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Achieving market leadership in cyber resilience by FY2029: If Rubrik captures 15%+ market share in the $50B+ data security and recovery market, it could drive annual revenue beyond $5B with a 25%+ FCF margin.
- •Successful acquisition and integration of a complementary cloud security or data governance provider by FY2028: Expand TAM by $5B and accelerate cross-selling, contributing 15-20% to annual revenue growth.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for RBRK?
- ✓
Quarterly Subscription ARR growth: Monitor for sustained rates above 30% YoY.
- ✓
Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin: Track for consistent expansion towards 25%.
- ✓
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and Lifetime Value (LTV) trends: Ensure efficiency of sales and marketing investments supporting growth.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with RBRK
See how Rubrik Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rubrik Inc RBRK | $14.3B | 9.0 | -39.0 | $1.2B | -20.3% | 45.7% | |
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc CRWD | $170.9B | 8.7 | 662.9 | $3.8B | -3.4% | 21.7% | Compare → |
Palo Alto Networks Inc PANW | $218.3B | 7.3 | 170.3 | $9.2B | 13.0% | 15.4% | Compare → |
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How Rubrik Inc Makes Money
Rubrik Inc. provides a Zero Trust Data Security platform that helps organizations protect their data from cyberattacks, ransomware, and operational failures. The company primarily sells its software and related services through a subscription model, with a focus on cloud-native solutions that secure, recover, and manage data across hybrid environments. Customers pay recurring fees for access to Rubrik's platform, which combines data backup and recovery with advanced security features like threat detection and immutability.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Rubrik Inc (RBRK)?
As of June 18, 2026, Rubrik Inc has a DVR Score of 9.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Rubrik Inc?
Rubrik Inc's market capitalization is approximately $14.3B. The company operates in the Technology sector within the Software - Infrastructure industry.
What ticker symbol does Rubrik Inc use?
RBRK is the ticker symbol for Rubrik Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for RBRK stock?
Our analysis rates Rubrik Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of RBRK?
Rubrik Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -39.0. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Rubrik Inc's revenue growing?
Rubrik Inc has reported revenue growth of 45.7%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is RBRK stock profitable?
Rubrik Inc has a profit margin of -20.3%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the RBRK DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Rubrik Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 18, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for RBRK (Rubrik Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.