QXO Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
QXO Inc
Industrials • Industrial Distribution
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About QXO Stock
We analyzed QXO Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran QXO through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
QXO Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Missed earnings expectations for Q1 2026 or subsequent quarters
- 📅
Failure to achieve expected synergy benefits from acquisitions
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure or slowdown in the building products market
- 📅
Regulatory scrutiny over consolidation or data privacy concerns
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What Does QXO Inc (QXO) Do?
Market Cap
$14.00B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Industrial Distribution
Employees
211
QXO, Inc. distributes roofing, waterproofing, and other building products in the United States. It offers asphalt, metal roofing, wood roofing, tile roofing, slate roofing, roofing accessories, and roofing insulation products; vinyl siding, aluminum siding, steel siding, fiber cement siding, wood and composite siding, trim and accessories, and gutters and accessories; built-up roofing, modified roofing, EPDM roofing, PVC roofing, and low-slope metal roofing; as well as air and vapor barriers, fluid-applied products, repair and protection solutions, and membrane waterproofing products. The company also provides building materials and supplies, such as exterior materials, interior materials, and tools and equipment; and roof hatches and other tri-built building products. It serves contractors, distributors, and suppliers to streamline operations. QXO, Inc. was formerly known as SilverSun Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to QXO, Inc. in June 2024. The company is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Visit QXO Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
QXO Inc. is a high-growth consolidation play in the fragmented $800B building products distribution market, led by the highly successful Brad Jacobs. With a robust balance sheet and demonstrated execution of its M&A strategy, evidenced by massive revenue growth and a $1B+ EBITDA run-rate, the company is strategically positioned for significant market share capture and long-term value creation, despite current unprofitability.
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QXO Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$35.00
Bull Case
$50.00
Bear Case
$18.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 20x forward EV/EBITDA applied to a projected $1.75B FY26 EBITDA run-rate, factoring in growth and market leadership premium.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging between $18-$22, targeting dips towards recent support levels around the $18-$19 range. Current price of $20.3 offers a reasonable entry for long-term investors.
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $35-$40, reassess at $50.00. Set a stop-loss order below the 52-week low of $11.97, perhaps around $10.00 if risk tolerance allows for deeper corrections.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate, given the high-growth, high-risk profile.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is QXO Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-31.62
Forward P/E
-34.45
EV/EBITDA
20.10
PEG Ratio
3.21
Price/Book
1.60
Price/Sales
2.10
Profitability
Gross Margin
23.00%
Operating Margin
-4.20%
Net Margin
-4.08%
Return on Equity
-2.82%
Revenue Growth
14725.00%
EPS
$0.02
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
3.60
Quick Ratio
2.61
Debt/Equity
0.40
Total Debt
$3.75B
Cash & Equivalents
$186.60M
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$186.60M
Free Cash Flow
$708.00M
EBITDA
-$287.28M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.51
Does QXO Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
The moat is strengthening due to the scale achieved through aggressive acquisitions, which creates significant cost advantages and efficient distribution networks in a previously fragmented market. Brad Jacobs' unique M&A and operational expertise also serves as a critical intangible asset, difficult to replicate.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Failure to successfully integrate acquired companies and realize synergies
- •Emergence of a well-capitalized competitor adopting a similar tech-enabled consolidation strategy
- •Loss of key executive talent (e.g., Brad Jacobs)
QXO Competitive Moat Analysis
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QXO Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, with mixed reactions to recent earnings. High-growth potential attracts enthusiasts but profitability concerns temper sentiment.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with analysts maintaining 'Moderate Buy' to 'Strong Buy' ratings and price targets well above current levels. Loop Capital and Oppenheimer recently reaffirmed positive stances.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Chief Legal Officer Christopher J. Signorello granted 13,761 RSUs on March 6, 2026. No CEO/CFO buys/sells reported in the last 90 days, indicating neutral direct cash transactions.
Options Flow
Normal options activity, with no specific unusual put/call ratios or large block trades reported in the provided data.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-14
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Shares plunged 7.25% on March 21, 2026, following the Q4 earnings report on February 25, 2026, indicating sensitivity to earnings details and profitability metrics.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
United Rentals (URI)
Market Share Trend
Gaining, as evidenced by becoming the 'largest public player' in building products distribution after significant acquisitions.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a higher forward EV/EBITDA multiple than mature building products distributors due to its aggressive growth strategy and market consolidation potential. Price-to-FCF (20.1) indicates potential overvaluation for a currently unprofitable company.
Competitive Advantages
- •Experienced M&A leadership (Brad Jacobs) with proven track record
- •Scale and market leadership achieved through rapid acquisitions
- •Strong balance sheet supporting further consolidation
- •Tech-enabled approach to optimize fragmented distribution
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive QXO Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (expected May 14, 2026)
- •Announcement of further strategic acquisitions or material partnerships
- •Updates on integration synergies and cost efficiencies from existing acquisitions
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Consistent improvement in gross and operating margins post-integration
- •Expansion into new geographic regions or adjacent building product categories
- •Realization of $2B+ EBITDA run-rate through organic growth and additional M&A
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Establishment as the dominant, tech-enabled distribution platform in heavy goods
- •Successful disruption of traditional, fragmented distribution models via technology
- •Potential for inclusion in major market indices as scale increases
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for QXO?
- ✓
Consistent positive commentary on acquisition integration and synergy realization
- ✓
Quarterly gross and operating margin expansion leading to positive net income
- ✓
Further strategic acquisitions that enhance market leadership and geographic reach
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with QXO
See how QXO Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QXO Inc QXO | $14.0B | 9.1 | -31.6 | $6.8B | -4.1% | 14725.0% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | — | 0.1 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
GXO Logistics Inc GXO | $6.3B | 0.3 | 103.0 | $11.7B | 0.5% | 0.0% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc. HON | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $81.3B | 0.1 | 14.3 | — | — | — | Compare → |
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FAQ
What is the DVR Score for QXO Inc (QXO)?
As of March 24, 2026, QXO Inc has a DVR Score of 9.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of QXO Inc?
QXO Inc's market capitalization is approximately $14.0B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Industrial Distribution industry.
What ticker symbol does QXO Inc use?
QXO is the ticker symbol for QXO Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for QXO stock?
Our analysis rates QXO Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of QXO?
QXO Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -31.6. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is QXO Inc's revenue growing?
QXO Inc has reported revenue growth of 14725.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is QXO stock profitable?
QXO Inc has a profit margin of -4.1%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the QXO DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of QXO Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on March 24, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for QXO (QXO Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.