QCOM Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Qualcomm Inc
Technology • Semiconductors
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About QCOM Stock
We analyzed Qualcomm Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran QCOM through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
QCOM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Apple's continued development of an in-house modem poses a significant threat to Qualcomm's most profitable Handset segment. If Apple successfully transitions away from Qualcomm's modems, it could create a substantial EPS headwind, potentially impacting QCOM's profitability and market share significantly.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Low
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Potential for Apple's in-house modem to create up to $1.75 EPS headwind
- ⚠
Reliance on handset market stabilization for overall revenue growth
- ⚠
Automotive agreement with a major customer ends post-2026, requiring new design wins
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 FY2026 earnings miss or weak guidance (April 29, 2026)
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure from in-house modem development by key customers (e.g., Apple)
- 📅
Macroeconomic slowdown impacting smartphone or automotive demand
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly handset revenue shows consistent YoY declines for two consecutive quarters.
- 🚪
Sell if management indicates significant erosion of market share in premium Android segment.
- 🚪
Consider exit if Q2 FY2026 earnings or subsequent guidance show material weakness in automotive or IoT segments.
Unlock QCOM Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) Do?
Market Cap
$137.43B
Sector
Technology
Industry
Semiconductors
Employees
52,000
QUALCOMM Incorporated engages in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry worldwide. It operates through three segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT); Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL); and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI). The QCT segment develops and supplies integrated circuits and system software with connectivity and computing technologies for use in mobile devices; automotive systems for connectivity, digital cockpit, and ADAS/AD; and IoT, including consumer electronic devices, industrial devices, and edge networking products. The QTL segment grants licenses or provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which include various patent rights useful in the manufacture and sale of wireless products comprising products implementing LTE, and/or OFDMA-based 5G products and derivatives; to use cellular standard-essential patents, including 3G, 4G and 5G for cellular devices. The QSI segment invests in early-stage companies in various industries, including 5G, artificial intelligence, automotive, consumer, enterprise, cloud, IoT, and extended reality, and investments, including non-marketable equity securities and, to a lesser extent, marketable equity securities, and convertible debt instruments. It also provides development, and other services and sells related products to the United States government agencies and their contractors. In addition, the company is also involved in Qualcomm government technologies and data center businesses. QUALCOMM Incorporated was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Visit Qualcomm Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Qualcomm is a well-established technology leader strategically positioned to benefit from the pervasive adoption of on-device AI, continued growth in the automotive sector, and expansion in the IoT market. Supported by a robust financial profile, strong IP, and a significant share buyback program, QCOM offers stable growth and attractive shareholder returns, though its large market capitalization limits 10x upside potential within a 3-5 year horizon.
Is QCOM Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for QCOM
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
QCOM Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$165.00
Bull Case
$180.00
Bear Case
$134.00
Valuation Basis
20x forward P/E applied to estimated FY2026 EPS of $8.29
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between current price ($127.51) and recent analyst low target ($134), ideally on dips towards $125-$130 for favorable risk/reward.
Exit Strategy
Take profit on partial positions at $165 (median target) and $180 (optimistic target). Consider a stop loss if the stock breaches critical support levels like $120.
Portfolio Allocation
3-5% for moderate risk tolerance, reflecting stable growth potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is QCOM Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.19
Forward P/E
11.79
Price/Sales
3.10
Profitability
Operating Margin
27.50%
Net Margin
12.00%
Return on Equity
21.50%
Revenue Growth
5.00%
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
2.51
Quick Ratio
1.83
Debt/Equity
0.64
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
$12.98B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.28
Dividend Yield
2.80%
Does QCOM Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🏰 Wide
Moat Trend
Stable
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Qualcomm's moat is durable due to its foundational IP in wireless communications (5G, future 6G) and its deep integration within the mobile ecosystem, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its full platform offering without significant R&D and time. The expansion into automotive and IoT further diversifies and strengthens this moat.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Threat of major customers developing in-house chip solutions (e.g., Apple modem)
- •Increased regulatory scrutiny over licensing practices in various jurisdictions
QCOM Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
QCOM Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (No specific data provided, assume market-aligned)
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral, with a consensus 'Hold' rating and median price target of $163.77-$167.35. Recent analyst actions include Erste Group Bank cutting FY2026 EPS estimate and Goldman Sachs initiating with a Neutral rating.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 filings reported for last 90 days. No CEO/CFO activity flagged.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (No specific data provided, assume normal)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-29
Surprise Probability
Medium (Q1 FY2026 beat estimates, but upcoming Q2 EPS guidance has a range of $2.45-$2.65 against a $2.56 consensus)
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, Qualcomm tends to react positively to earnings beats, especially with strong guidance in its growth segments, but is sensitive to handset market outlooks.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
NVDA
Market Share Trend
Stable to gaining in premium Android (Snapdragon 8 Elite), gaining in Automotive (design pipeline >$45B, targeting 20% share in 2026 launch). Potential threat from Apple's in-house modem development.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a discount on TTM P/E (26.52x vs. sector 35.9x) but a premium on P/S (4.17x vs. sector 2.0x-2.2x) and P/B (6.07x-6.2x vs. sector 1.3x-2.4x). Forward P/E of 14.6x suggests relative value.
Competitive Advantages
- •Industry-leading IP and patent portfolio (especially in 5G and AI)
- •Strong relationships with global smartphone OEMs
- •Pervasive platform approach across mobile, automotive, and IoT
- •Significant R&D investment in next-gen technologies (e.g., 6G)
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive QCOM Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 FY2026 Earnings Report (expected April 29, 2026)
- •Continued growth in Automotive segment (Q1 up 15-35% YoY)
- •$20 billion share buyback program implementation (authorized March 17, 2026)
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Increasing adoption of on-device AI in new smartphone models and edge devices
- •Further design wins in the automotive infotainment and ADAS market
- •Expansion into new IoT verticals beyond current footprint
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Leadership in 6G development and standardization
- •Diversification of revenue streams to reduce reliance on handsets
- •Strategic positioning in the metaverse and spatial computing hardware
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for QCOM?
- ✓
Acceleration in Automotive and IoT segment revenue growth rates
- ✓
Maintenance or expansion of QCT operating margins
- ✓
Successful resolution of potential competitive threats from in-house modem development
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with QCOM
See how Qualcomm Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Qualcomm Inc QCOM | $137.4B | 2.4 | 26.2 | $44.9B | 12.0% | 5.0% | |
Apple Inc AAPL | $3.9T | 1.5 | 33.2 | $391.0B | 27.0% | 10.1% | Compare → |
Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $4.7T | 1.0 | 29.1 | $402.8B | 37.9% | 17.4% | Compare → |
Meta Platforms Inc META | — | 5.1 | 15.7 | — | 30.1% | 22.2% | Compare → |
Microsoft Corp MSFT | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
NVIDIA Corp NVDA | $4.4T | 5.3 | 38.5 | $215.9B | 55.6% | 65.0% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Qualcomm Inc Makes Money
Qualcomm makes money primarily through two segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT) and Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL). QCT designs and sells integrated circuits and system software for mobile devices, automotive platforms, IoT, and networking, generating revenue from chip sales. QTL licenses its vast portfolio of intellectual property, essential for 3G, 4G, and 5G wireless communication standards, to manufacturers globally, earning high-margin royalty fees. This dual model leverages its innovation in chip design and its foundational patents to generate substantial revenue and profit.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)?
As of April 9, 2026, Qualcomm Inc has a DVR Score of 2.4 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Qualcomm Inc?
Qualcomm Inc's market capitalization is approximately $137.4B. The company operates in the Technology sector within the Semiconductors industry.
What ticker symbol does Qualcomm Inc use?
QCOM is the ticker symbol for Qualcomm Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for QCOM stock?
Our analysis rates Qualcomm Inc's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of QCOM?
Qualcomm Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.2. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Qualcomm Inc pay a dividend?
Yes, Qualcomm Inc pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 2.80%.
Is Qualcomm Inc's revenue growing?
Qualcomm Inc has reported revenue growth of 5.0%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is QCOM stock profitable?
Qualcomm Inc has a profit margin of 12.0%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the QCOM DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Qualcomm Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 9, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for QCOM (Qualcomm Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.