OSCR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Oscar Health Inc
Healthcare • Healthcare Plans
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About OSCR Stock
We analyzed Oscar Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran OSCR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
OSCR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The primary risk is the non-sustainability of Q1 2026's exceptional profitability. If Q2-Q4 2026 results show a significant re-inversion to unprofitability, or if the approximately $679 million Q1 net income contained substantial one-time gains not reflective of core operations, the market's current positive re-rating of Oscar's operational leverage could reverse, leading to significant stock price decline from current $28.91 levels, impacting its ability to meet the $18.7 billion-$19.0 billion revenue guidance profitably.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Discrepancy between Q1 2026 net income (~$679M) and previous full-year EPS consensus ($0.47) raises questions about sustainable profitability for the entire fiscal year.
- ⚠
High regulatory oversight and potential policy changes in the highly complex U.S. health insurance market could impact operational flexibility and profitability.
- ⚠
Intense competition from well-capitalized, established players like UnitedHealth Group and Anthem, who are also investing in technology.
- ⚠
Analyst price target from Wells Fargo ($20) is significantly below the current stock price ($28.91), suggesting some institutional caution despite the upgrade.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 Earnings Miss (estimated late July/early August 2026): If Q2 EPS falls below $0.50 or operating margin significantly contracts from Q1's 15.2%, it could trigger a substantial market sell-off.
- 📅
Regulatory Changes Impacting ACA Subsidies (FY2027): Policy shifts that reduce government subsidies for individual health plans could directly impact Oscar's revenue growth trajectory, potentially slowing member acquisition by 10-15% annually.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly operating margin falls below 5% for two consecutive quarters, indicating a fundamental breakdown in operational efficiency.
- 🚪
Sell if full-year 2026 revenue guidance is revised downwards below $18.0 billion, signaling a slowdown in market traction or increased competitive pressure.
- 🚪
Exit if net cash position (current assets - current liabilities) drops below $2 billion without clear funding plans.
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What Does Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) Do?
Market Cap
$8.40B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Healthcare Plans
Employees
2,400
Oscar Health, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company in the United States. The company offers health plans to individuals, families, employees, and small group markets. It also provides +Oscar platform that power others throughout the healthcare system; Campaign Builder platform, an engagement and recommendation platform for providers and payors; and reinsurance products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Visit Oscar Health Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Oscar Health can demonstrate sustained profitability and operational leverage comparable to its Q1 2026 performance (e.g., maintaining at least a 5% net operating margin for FY2026 and beyond, generating $1.0B+ in annual net income), then its full-year EPS could significantly exceed current conservative estimates, leading to a re-rating towards sector-average P/E multiples (30-40x) for growing, profitable insurtechs. This is bullish because the market has historically discounted Oscar due to unprofitability, and a proven, sustainable profit engine would unlock substantial shareholder value from its current $28.91 valuation.
Is OSCR Stock Undervalued?
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OSCR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$75.00
Bull Case
$110.00
Bear Case
$15.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 30x forward P/E applied to an estimated FY2027 EPS of $2.50, reflecting continued, albeit more moderate, profitability post-Q1 2026 exceptionalism.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on pullbacks towards the $25-$27 range, especially if retests of previous 52-week highs occur. Strong support around $20 (Wells Fargo's target).
Exit Strategy
Take initial profits at $70-$80; consider full exit if Q2 2026 operating margin falls below 5% or full-year revenue guidance is significantly lowered.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance; 3-5% for moderate.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is OSCR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
49.60
Forward P/E
49.60
EV/EBITDA
22.43
PEG Ratio
-1.00
Price/Book
1.00
Price/Sales
0.33
Profitability
Operating Margin
0.08%
Net Margin
-0.30%
Return on Equity
-3.27%
Revenue Growth
32.61%
EPS
$-0.61
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.08
Quick Ratio
0.08
Debt/Equity
0.44
Total Debt
$299.75M
Cash & Equivalents
$2.99B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$1.22B
Free Cash Flow
$1.19B
EBITDA
$262.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.29
Does OSCR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Oscar's moat is expanding as its technology platform matures and gains scale, making its integrated user experience and data-driven insights increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate effectively. However, durability is dependent on continuous innovation and execution against well-capitalized incumbents who can also invest heavily in technology.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Large incumbents investing heavily in similar tech platforms and digital user experiences, eroding Oscar's differentiation.
- •Regulatory changes (e.g., in ACA markets) that could undermine Oscar's business model or competitive advantages.
- •Failure to scale its technology cost-effectively, leading to margin compression despite revenue growth.
OSCR Competitive Moat Analysis
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OSCR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish: Strong positive sentiment driven by the dramatic Q1 2026 profitability turnaround and sustained revenue growth, with the stock hitting new 52-week highs.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive: Reflected by Wells Fargo's upgrade from Underweight to Market Perform and target raise, although the target of $20 is still below the current market price.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 data detailing recent insider transactions (buys or sells) was provided in the real-time market intelligence.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific data indicating unusual institutional positioning was provided.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated late July / early August 2026 for Q2 2026 results.
Surprise Probability
High: Given the significant Q1 2026 outperformance and the discrepancy with previous full-year consensus estimates, there is a high probability of another positive surprise if profitability trends continue or guidance is raised.
Historical Earnings Pattern
Likely to exhibit high volatility around earnings reports, given its turnaround status and the market's focus on sustainable profitability after years of losses.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
UNH
Market Share Trend
Gaining market share in specific individual and small group segments where its tech-enabled approach resonates, albeit from a small base compared to incumbents.
Valuation vs Peers
Historically traded at a discount or was unprofitable. Post-Q1 2026, Oscar will likely trade at a premium on P/S due to higher growth, but a P/E multiple will now be established and potentially higher than traditional insurers due to insurtech growth premium.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary full-stack technology platform enabling enhanced user experience and operational efficiency.
- •Focus on consumer engagement and personalized care navigation through digital tools and dedicated care teams.
- •Data-driven insights for risk management and plan design, leading to improved MLR.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive OSCR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated late July/early August 2026): Confirmation of sustained profitability and operating margin above 10% on a revenue base >$4.5B would be a significant re-rating catalyst.
- •Strategic Partnership Announcement (Q3 2026): A major collaboration with a large healthcare provider or employer group could expand market reach by >500,000 members and validate scalability.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Consistent Free Cash Flow Generation (H1 2027): Achieving positive free cash flow consistently for two consecutive quarters would de-risk financial health and enable further reinvestment in growth initiatives, potentially signaling 2-3x EPS growth over 12 months.
- •New Geographic Market Expansion (FY2027): Entry into 2-3 new states for individual or Medicare Advantage plans, targeting 200,000-300,000 new members, demonstrating continued scalability of the tech platform.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Market Leadership in Tech-Enabled Health Insurance (FY2028-2029): Capturing 5%+ market share in the individual and small group segments, leveraging proprietary technology to achieve a sustainable 20%+ operating margin, potentially driving revenue to $30B+ and justifying a 50x+ P/E.
- •Diversification into Adjacent Healthcare Services (FY2029): Expansion into value-based care or employer-sponsored wellness programs, adding new revenue streams that could contribute 15-20% of total revenue and enhance stickiness.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for OSCR?
- ✓
Watch Q2 2026 and subsequent quarterly operating margins — must remain above 10% to confirm sustained operational efficiency.
- ✓
Monitor any revisions to full-year 2026 EPS or revenue guidance; an upward revision in EPS guidance would be a strong validation.
- ✓
Track member growth rates; deceleration below 15% YoY could signal competitive pressure or saturation in key markets.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with OSCR
See how Oscar Health Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oscar Health Inc OSCR | $8.4B | 8.5 | 49.6 | $11.7B | -0.3% | 32.6% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Oscar Health Inc Makes Money
Oscar Health is a technology-driven health insurance company that leverages a proprietary full-stack platform to offer health plans to individuals, families, and small businesses, as well as Medicare Advantage. The company aims to make healthcare simpler and more accessible through a user-friendly digital experience, personalized care navigation, and integrated virtual primary care, differentiating itself from traditional insurers through technological innovation and a focus on member engagement.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
As of June 11, 2026, Oscar Health Inc has a DVR Score of 8.5 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Oscar Health Inc?
Oscar Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $8.4B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Healthcare Plans industry.
What ticker symbol does Oscar Health Inc use?
OSCR is the ticker symbol for Oscar Health Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for OSCR stock?
Our analysis rates Oscar Health Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of OSCR?
Oscar Health Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.6. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Oscar Health Inc's revenue growing?
Oscar Health Inc has reported revenue growth of 32.6%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is OSCR stock profitable?
Oscar Health Inc has a profit margin of -0.3%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the OSCR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Oscar Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 11, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for OSCR (Oscar Health Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.