OSCR Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Oscar Health Inc
Healthcare • Healthcare Plans
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About OSCR Stock
We analyzed Oscar Health Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran OSCR through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
OSCR Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Oscar Health's ambitious target of $250M-$450M profit in 2026, following significant losses in 2025, carries substantial execution risk. Failure to achieve this profitability, especially after the CEO's recent confidence-boosting purchase, could lead to a significant loss of investor trust and a sharp stock decline.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
High
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Lack of detailed balance sheet and cash flow statements in the provided brief
- ⚠
History of significant net losses in 2025 ($443.2M) before the aggressive 2026 profit target
- ⚠
Slight revenue miss in Q2 2025 against estimates
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Failure to meet or reaffirm 2026 profitability guidance
- 📅
Adverse changes in healthcare regulations or Medicare rates
- 📅
Intensified competition leading to pricing pressures
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters
- 🚪
Sell if the company fails to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA or net profit in Q3/Q4 2026
- 🚪
A sustained drop in institutional ownership below 60% of the float
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What Does Oscar Health Inc (OSCR) Do?
Market Cap
$3.76B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Healthcare Plans
Employees
2,400
Oscar Health, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company in the United States. The company offers health plans to individuals, families, employees, and small group markets. It also provides +Oscar platform that power others throughout the healthcare system; Campaign Builder platform, an engagement and recommendation platform for providers and payors; and reinsurance products. The company was formerly known as Mulberry Health Inc. and changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. Oscar Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Visit Oscar Health Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Oscar Health is poised for significant growth and market leadership in the insurtech space, driven by its Oscar+ platform, strong member acquisition, and a clear path to profitability by 2026. The substantial insider buying by the CEO underscores high conviction in the company's strategic execution and its potential to disrupt traditional healthcare insurance with a tech-first approach.
Is OSCR Stock Undervalued?
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OSCR Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$40.95
Bull Case
$52.85
Bear Case
$21.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 35x forward P/E applied to estimated FY26 EPS of $1.17 ($350M profit / ~297.5M shares)
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging on dips towards $12-$13, leveraging the price point of the CEO's recent purchase ($11.92) as a strong support zone.
Exit Strategy
Take partial profits at $40-$45, with a stop-loss order placed below $11.00 to protect capital if the investment thesis deteriorates.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate risk tolerance, given the high-growth, high-risk profile.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is OSCR Financially Healthy?
Valuation
Forward P/E
0.74
Profitability
Net Margin
0.24%
Revenue Growth
29.00%
EPS
$-0.81
Does OSCR Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat could persist if Oscar continues to innovate its tech platform and deeply integrate into members' healthcare journeys, creating high switching costs through personalized services and digital convenience. Sustained member growth further strengthens this.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Intense competition from well-capitalized traditional insurers and other insurtech startups
- •Rapid technological shifts by competitors that could negate Oscar's tech advantage
- •Regulatory changes that could impact the competitive landscape or Oscar's operating model
OSCR Competitive Moat Analysis
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OSCR Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Bullish, fueled by the recent positive news of CEO's insider purchase and stock rally.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, evidenced by over 75% institutional ownership and the CEO's significant share purchase.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
CEO Mark T. Bertolini purchased 1,000,000 Class A shares for $11.92 million on April 6, 2026, following the vesting of 5,733,334 PSUs and tax withholding of 1,000,001 shares on April 3-6, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual options flow data was provided in the search results.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-05-06
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
The stock has shown positive reactions to strong news, evidenced by the 22% surge following the CEO's purchase and Medicare rate news, suggesting that positive operational or guidance updates could be well-received.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Not provided in search results
Market Share Trend
Gaining, indicated by significant member growth from 2M (Dec 2025) to 3.4M (Feb 2026).
Valuation vs Peers
Not provided in search results
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary Oscar+ technology platform for enhanced user experience
- •Data-driven approach to cost management and personalized care
- •Strong focus on member engagement and digital tools
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive OSCR Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (May 6, 2026)
- •Confirmation/Uplift of 2026 Profitability Guidance
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Continued Oscar+ platform expansion and market penetration
- •Announcements of new strategic partnerships or significant customer wins
- •Sustained acceleration in member growth
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Disruption of the legacy health insurance market through tech innovation
- •Achievement of sustained market leadership in the insurtech sector
- •Further operational efficiencies leading to margin expansion
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for OSCR?
- ✓
Consistent positive Adjusted EBITDA and net profit in subsequent quarters
- ✓
Acceleration in Oscar+ platform adoption metrics and engagement
- ✓
Continued double-digit member growth rates
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with OSCR
See how Oscar Health Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oscar Health Inc OSCR | $3.8B | 9.2 | — | $10.7B | 0.2% | 29.0% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $403.8B | 0.1 | 171.8 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $150.6B | 0.2 | 19.4 | $62.6B | 12.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $276.2B | 0.3 | 22.9 | $113.7B | 2.7% | 1181.0% | Compare → |
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How Oscar Health Inc Makes Money
Oscar Health Inc. is an insurtech company that leverages technology, design, and data science to transform healthcare. It offers various health insurance plans, including individual and family, Medicare Advantage, and small group plans, primarily through its proprietary Oscar+ platform. This platform uses AI and data analytics to provide a simplified, personalized member experience, aiming to improve health outcomes and reduce costs compared to traditional insurers.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)?
As of April 13, 2026, Oscar Health Inc has a DVR Score of 9.2 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Oscar Health Inc?
Oscar Health Inc's market capitalization is approximately $3.8B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Healthcare Plans industry.
What ticker symbol does Oscar Health Inc use?
OSCR is the ticker symbol for Oscar Health Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for OSCR stock?
Our analysis rates Oscar Health Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
Is Oscar Health Inc's revenue growing?
Oscar Health Inc has reported revenue growth of 29.0%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is OSCR stock profitable?
Oscar Health Inc has a profit margin of 0.2%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the OSCR DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Oscar Health Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 13, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for OSCR (Oscar Health Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.