NTNX Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Nutanix Inc
Technology • Software - Infrastructure
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NTNX Stock
We analyzed Nutanix Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NTNX through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate-Aggressive. Here's what we found.
NTNX Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk for Nutanix is the potential for aggressive counter-moves by its competitors, particularly if Broadcom successfully stabilizes and integrates VMware, potentially slowing customer migrations. This could reduce Nutanix's annual contract value (ACV) growth by 10-15% and pressure its ability to achieve its forecasted FY2026 revenue of $2.82B-$2.84B, impacting investor confidence.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate-Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
High P/E Ratio of 49.04, indicating significant future growth is already priced in, making it vulnerable to any growth deceleration.
- ⚠
Lack of detailed current financial statements (margins, cash flow, balance sheet) in the provided research, though assumed healthy based on general knowledge.
- ⚠
Intense competition from well-capitalized public cloud providers (AWS, Azure, GCP) and established enterprise IT vendors.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Broadcom-VMware Price Stabilization (H2 FY2027): If Broadcom stabilizes VMware's pricing and licensing, reducing customer churn, it could slow Nutanix's new customer acquisition by 5-10%.
- 📅
Economic Slowdown in Enterprise IT Spending (Ongoing 2026-2027): A significant macroeconomic downturn could cause enterprises to defer large IT infrastructure investments, impacting Nutanix's projected FY2027 revenue growth by 2-5 percentage points.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 5% YoY for two consecutive quarters, signaling a loss of market momentum.
- 🚪
Sell if free cash flow turns negative for two consecutive quarters, indicating a fundamental deterioration in financial health.
- 🚪
Exit if adjusted operating margin (not provided but assumed positive) falls below 5% for two consecutive quarters, reflecting increased cost pressure or pricing competition.
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What Does Nutanix Inc (NTNX) Do?
Market Cap
$12.95B
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Employees
7,800
Nutanix, Inc. provides an enterprise cloud platform in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. It offers hyperconverged infrastructure software; Nutanix Cloud Platform, which is designed to enable organizations to build hybrid multicloud infrastructure; Nutanix cloud infrastructure, is a distributed HCI for enterprise IT applications, includes Nutanix AOS; Nutanix AHV; Nutanix data services for Kubernetes; flow network security; flow virtual networking provides software-defined networking with multi-tenant isolation; Nutanix Cloud Clusters; Nutanix central provides management of the Nutanix hybrid multicloud environment; and Nutanix prism, is the unified control plane and UI; Nutanix Cloud Manager, is a unified management solution; NCM Intelligent Operations; NCM Self-Service and Orchestration; NCM Cost Governance; and Nutanix Security Central unifies cloud security operations. In addition, the company offers Nutanix Kubernetes Platform, which is an enterprise-grade Kubernetes platform to accelerate app development without lock-in; Nutanix Unified Storage; Nutanix Files Storage, is a software-defined scale-out file storage solution; Nutanix Objects Storage, is a scale-out S3-compatible object storage solution; Nutanix Objects Storage; Nutanix Volumes Block Storage, is a software-defined storage solution; Nutanix Data Lens, is a cloud-based cyber resilience service; Nutanix Database Service; Nutanix Enterprise AI, is a centralized inferencing control plane; and GPT-in-a-Box is a full-stack help provide consistent data services for structured and unstructured data. Further, it provides product support, and consulting and implementation services. The company serves financial services, retail, manufacturing, public sector, automotive and other transportation, consumer goods, education, energy, healthcare, media, technology, and telecommunications industries. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Visit Nutanix Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Nutanix continues to capture a significant portion of the enterprise IT spending shifting towards hybrid multicloud environments, particularly from the Broadcom-VMware exodus, and successfully expands its platform capabilities with AI/ML integrations, then its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) could reach $5B+ within 3-5 years. This is bullish because the market currently undervalues Nutanix's long-term leadership potential in this critical infrastructure segment, pricing it primarily on current profitability rather than future market dominance.
Is NTNX Stock Undervalued?
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NTNX Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$96.25
Bull Case
$115.00
Bear Case
$65.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 55x forward P/E applied to projected FY27 EPS of $1.75, reflecting sustained growth and modest multiple expansion.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $48-$52, targeting dips towards its recent support levels. Consider initial entry at current levels given strong Q3 earnings and outlook.
Exit Strategy
Take 30% profit at $90, 50% at $110. Implement a trailing stop-loss at $60 (approximately 20% below current price) to protect capital.
Portfolio Allocation
7-10% for aggressive risk tolerance, 3-5% for moderate risk tolerance.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is NTNX Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
48.46
Forward P/E
25.48
EV/EBITDA
39.29
PEG Ratio
0.89
Price/Book
26.72
Price/Sales
6.96
Profitability
Gross Margin
87.13%
Operating Margin
7.94%
Net Margin
9.95%
Return on Equity
-321.31%
Revenue Growth
15.85%
EPS
$0.91
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
1.83
Quick Ratio
1.76
Debt/Equity
2.46
Total Debt
$500.00M
Cash & Equivalents
$1.60B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$620.00M
Free Cash Flow
$510.00M
EBITDA
$450.00M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.58
Does NTNX Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
3 Identified
Nutanix's moat is durable due to the high switching costs associated with migrating complex enterprise IT infrastructure and its continuous innovation in simplifying hybrid cloud operations. The current disruption in the competitive landscape further solidifies its position.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •The increasing maturity and integration of public cloud services could reduce the need for on-premise HCI solutions, diminishing switching costs over the long term.
- •Aggressive pricing or bundled offerings from larger competitors (e.g., Microsoft Azure Stack HCI, Google Anthos) could erode Nutanix's pricing power and margin.
NTNX Competitive Moat Analysis
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NTNX Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral. While recent earnings were positive, specific social media sentiment trends are not available in the provided data. General tech sentiment is mixed.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive. Analyst consensus shows 55% Buy ratings and 45% Hold, with no Sell ratings, indicating a generally favorable institutional view following recent earnings.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 transactions were included in the provided results, so specific insider buys/sells cannot be verified from these sources.
Options Flow
Normal options activity. No specific unusual options activity was provided in the search results.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-08-26
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
Historically, Nutanix tends to experience stock price rallies of 5-10% on significant earnings beats and positive guidance, while misses or conservative outlooks can lead to moderate sell-offs (3-7%).
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Dell Technologies (for HCI hardware/software solutions)
Market Share Trend
Gaining. Nutanix is strategically positioned to capture market share, particularly benefiting from customer uncertainty and dissatisfaction in the wake of the Broadcom-VMware acquisition.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a premium on P/E (49.04) compared to more traditional infrastructure players like Dell (which has a lower P/E), reflecting its higher growth potential and software-centric, subscription model.
Competitive Advantages
- •Simplified, independent hybrid cloud platform architecture (HCI focus)
- •Strong customer satisfaction and Net Promoter Score (NPS)
- •Subscription-first business model with high recurring revenue visibility
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive NTNX Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q4 FY2026 Earnings (August 26, 2026): Consensus EPS estimate of $0.11. A significant beat on EPS or revenue, coupled with upward FY2027 guidance, could trigger a re-rating by 10-15%.
- •Continued Customer Migrations from Broadcom-VMware (Ongoing Q3/Q4 2026): A 15%+ increase in new customer logos or a 20%+ increase in Annual Contract Value (ACV) from VMware migrations reported in Q4 earnings could validate market share gains.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Nutanix Cloud Platform (NCP) enhancements with AI/ML integration (Q1/Q2 FY2027): Launch of specific AI-driven features for hybrid cloud management or cost optimization could expand TAM and drive new enterprise adoption, targeting 5% incremental ARR growth.
- •Strategic Partnerships in EMEA/APAC (H2 FY2027): Formation of 2-3 significant channel or technology alliances in key international markets could open new revenue streams, potentially adding $50M-$100M to annual revenue.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Hybrid Multicloud Platform Dominance (FY2029-FY2030): Achieving a 25% market share in the enterprise hybrid cloud infrastructure software market (currently fragmented), driving annual recurring revenue (ARR) to $5B+ with operating margins of 20%+.
- •Expansion into Edge Computing Infrastructure (FY2028-FY2029): Leveraging its HCI core to capture a significant portion of the rapidly growing edge infrastructure market, potentially adding $1B+ in new ARR by FY2029.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for NTNX?
- ✓
Monitor acceleration in subscription ARR growth exceeding 15% YoY for two consecutive quarters, signaling rapid market adoption.
- ✓
Watch for new strategic enterprise customer wins (e.g., Fortune 500 companies) or specific government contract announcements, demonstrating broader market acceptance.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with NTNX
See how Nutanix Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nutanix Inc NTNX | $12.9B | 9.0 | 48.5 | $2.6B | 9.9% | 15.8% | |
Apple Inc AAPL | $4.4T | 1.6 | 36.0 | $391.0B | 27.1% | 12.8% | Compare → |
Alphabet Inc GOOGL | $4.5T | 1.0 | 27.9 | — | 37.9% | 17.4% | Compare → |
Meta Platforms Inc META | $1.6T | 5.8 | 22.6 | $201.0B | 32.8% | 26.2% | Compare → |
Microsoft Corp MSFT | $3.2T | 0.5 | 25.6 | $281.7B | 39.3% | 17.9% | Compare → |
NVIDIA Corp NVDA | $5.3T | 6.2 | 33.1 | $130.5B | 63.0% | 70.7% | Compare → |
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How Nutanix Inc Makes Money
Nutanix provides a software-defined, hyperconverged infrastructure (HCI) platform that allows enterprises to manage their private and public cloud environments seamlessly from a single console. Essentially, it simplifies IT infrastructure by combining computing, storage, and networking into a single solution, delivered as a subscription service. This helps businesses build and operate hybrid multicloud environments with greater agility and lower costs.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Nutanix Inc (NTNX)?
As of May 29, 2026, Nutanix Inc has a DVR Score of 9.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Hidden Gem" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Nutanix Inc?
Nutanix Inc's market capitalization is approximately $12.9B. The company operates in the Technology sector within the Software - Infrastructure industry.
What ticker symbol does Nutanix Inc use?
NTNX is the ticker symbol for Nutanix Inc. The company trades on the NMS.
What is the risk level for NTNX stock?
Our analysis rates Nutanix Inc's overall risk as Moderate-Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NTNX?
Nutanix Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 48.5. This is above the market average, suggesting the stock may be priced for high growth expectations.
Is Nutanix Inc's revenue growing?
Nutanix Inc has reported revenue growth of 15.8%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is NTNX stock profitable?
Nutanix Inc has a profit margin of 9.9%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the NTNX DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Nutanix Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on May 29, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NTNX (Nutanix Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.