NAGE Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Niagen Bioscience Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About NAGE Stock
We analyzed Niagen Bioscience Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran NAGE through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate-Aggressive. Here's what we found.
NAGE Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
Despite its Q1 2026 profitability, Niagen Bioscience's modest 3.3% YoY revenue growth leaves it exposed to aggressive competition in the crowded NAD+ supplement market. A failure to accelerate growth beyond its current ~$142 million annual revenue guidance due to new, more potent, or cheaper competitor products could prevent it from achieving the scale required for 10x returns within 3-5 years.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate-Aggressive
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Medium
Red Flags
- ⚠
Modest Q1 2026 revenue growth (+3.3% YoY) is below the typical rates required for 10x growth aspirations.
- ⚠
FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint ($142.15M) is slightly below consensus ($145.9M), signaling potential challenges or conservative outlook.
- ⚠
High Price / Book ratio (16.1x) suggests significant future growth is already priced into the stock relative to its current asset base.
- ⚠
Lack of detailed current balance sheet (cash & equivalents, debt) and cash flow statement in the provided research snippets, requiring assumption of reasonable health based on positive EPS.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q2 2026 Earnings Miss (estimated early August 2026): A significant miss on revenue or EPS, or a downward revision of FY2026 revenue guidance ($139.0M–$145.3M), could trigger a substantial stock price decline.
- 📅
Increased Regulatory Scrutiny on NAD+ Claims (H2 2026): If FDA or other health agencies introduce stricter regulations on health claims for NAD+ precursors, forcing changes in marketing or product formulation, potentially impacting sales and R&D costs.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Quarterly revenue growth falls below 2% YoY for two consecutive quarters, indicating market share loss or demand stagnation.
- 🚪
Net income turns negative for two consecutive quarters, signaling a reversal of the recent profitability trend.
- 🚪
Analyst average price targets drop below $7.00, reflecting a significant loss of institutional confidence.
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What Does Niagen Bioscience Inc (NAGE) Do?
Market Cap
$274.77M
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
104
Niagen Bioscience, Inc. operates as a bioscience company engages in developing healthy aging products. The company operates through three segments: Consumer products; Ingredients; and Analytical Reference Standards and Services. It provides finished dietary supplement products that contain its proprietary ingredients directly to consumers and distributors; nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) test kits to healthcare practitioners; and develops and commercializes proprietary-based ingredient technologies, including food-grade, Niagen, and pharmaceuticalgrade Niagen and supplies these ingredients as raw materials to the manufacturers of consumer products. The company also offers the supply of phytochemical reference standards and other research and development services. In addition, it commercializes NAD+ precursor nicotinamide riboside as the flagship ingredient under NIAGEN brand name. The company distributes TRU NIAGEN products direct to consumers through its propriety e-commerce platform TRUNIAGEN.com, Amazon, ShopHQ, and other internet marketplaces, as well as specialty retailers and direct healthcare practitioners in the United States. The company was formerly known as ChromaDex Corporation and changed its name to Niagen Bioscience, Inc. in March 2025. Niagen Bioscience, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Visit Niagen Bioscience Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Niagen Bioscience successfully leverages its rebranded Niagen Research Program to generate new intellectual property and clinical validation for novel applications of nicotinamide riboside, leading to product diversification beyond existing supplements and into higher-margin therapeutic or specialized nutrition products, then its annualized revenue could accelerate significantly beyond its current ~$142 million guidance, potentially reaching $500M+ by FY2029. This is bullish because the market currently values it as a modest-growth supplement company, not fully appreciating its R&D potential, the exceptionally low PEG ratio, or the broader longevity market's expansion.
Is NAGE Stock Undervalued?
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NAGE Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$12.50
Bull Case
$20.00
Bear Case
$2.50
Valuation Basis
Based on 15.68x forward P/E applied to an implied FY2026 EPS of $0.803 (derived from Simply Wall St's blended target of $12.60 and NAGE's Forward P/E).
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $3.00-$3.50 range, as Q1 2026 EPS beat signals improving fundamentals, offering a low entry point relative to analyst targets.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $10.00, re-evaluate at $12.50; Stop loss set at $2.80 if fundamental outlook deteriorates.
Portfolio Allocation
5% for moderate risk tolerance
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is NAGE Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.74
Forward P/E
27.24
EV/EBITDA
16.10
PEG Ratio
0.15
Price/Book
16.10
Price/Sales
8.30
Profitability
Gross Margin
64.28%
Operating Margin
13.70%
Net Margin
14.29%
Return on Equity
25.38%
Revenue Growth
20.84%
EPS
$0.22
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
4.86
Quick Ratio
3.77
Other
Beta (Volatility)
2.10
Does NAGE Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat is primarily built on the proprietary nature of Niagen and its scientific backing. It can endure if Niagen Bioscience continues to innovate, expand its IP portfolio, and solidify its brand as the most trusted and effective NAD+ precursor. However, the supplement industry's competitive nature means new research or alternative compounds could challenge this moat.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Expiry of key patents related to nicotinamide riboside, opening the door for generic competition.
- •Discovery and successful commercialization of a superior or significantly cheaper NAD+ precursor by a competitor.
- •Increased regulatory scrutiny or adverse public perception of the safety or efficacy of NAD+ supplements.
NAGE Competitive Moat Analysis
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NAGE Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral (no specific data available)
Institutional Sentiment
Positive (StockAnalysis reports 3 analysts with 'Strong Buy' rating and average target of $16.33; Simply Wall St reports blended target of $12.60 as of May 27, 2026).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No Form 4 insider transactions were identified in the provided search results for the last 90 days.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity provided)
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early-August 2026 (for Q2 2026 results)
Surprise Probability
Medium (Q1 2026 EPS beat consensus, but FY2026 revenue guidance slightly below consensus midpoint)
Historical Earnings Pattern
Q1 2026 EPS beat suggests the company can outperform analyst expectations, but no broader historical pattern provided for stock price reaction.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
CDXC (ChromaDex Corp)
Market Share Trend
Stable (no data provided to indicate gaining or losing market share, but growth rate is modest)
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a P/E (16.43) and Forward P/E (15.68) suggesting a growth valuation, but its exceptionally low PEG ratio (0.15) implies it may be undervalued relative to its expected growth compared to peers.
Competitive Advantages
- •Proprietary Nicotinamide Riboside (Niagen brand and related IP).
- •Dedicated and rebranded Niagen Research Program for scientific validation and new applications.
- •Confirmed profitability within the NAD+ supplement market.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive NAGE Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q2 2026 Earnings Report (estimated early August 2026): If revenue exceeds $35 million and EPS grows to >$0.08, it would validate re-acceleration and bolster FY2026 guidance.
- •Expansion of Niagen Research Program Partnerships (Q3/Q4 2026): Announcement of a new significant academic or institutional research collaboration, providing further scientific validation and potential new IP pathways for nicotinamide riboside.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Major Retail Distribution Agreement (H1 2027): Securing a national distribution agreement with a large health-focused retailer (e.g., Whole Foods, GNC) or pharmacy chain, projecting to add >$25 million in annualized sales.
- •Positive Phase 2 Preclinical or Clinical Data (H1 2027): Release of positive preclinical or early-phase clinical trial data for a specific therapeutic application of Niagen, shifting perception from a supplement to a biotech platform.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Therapeutic Drug Development Milestone (FY2028-2029): If Niagen Bioscience's research program leads to an FDA-approved drug based on nicotinamide riboside for a specific disease by FY2029, it could unlock a multi-billion dollar market segment.
- •Global Market Dominance in NAD+ Enhancement (FY2029-2030): Achieve 20%+ market share in key international NAD+ precursor markets through strategic alliances and localized product offerings, generating 40%+ of total revenue from global sales.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for NAGE?
- ✓
Watch quarterly revenue growth: consistent acceleration to >10% YoY for two consecutive quarters signals strong market traction.
- ✓
Watch Niagen Research Program announcements: specific clinical trial initiations or positive data releases would validate R&D potential and potential for new product categories.
- ✓
Watch for new distribution agreements or international expansion milestones, quantifying the market reach expansion.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with NAGE
See how Niagen Bioscience Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Niagen Bioscience Inc NAGE | $274.8M | 5.7 | 14.7 | $124.7M | 14.3% | 20.8% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Niagen Bioscience Inc Makes Money
Niagen Bioscience Inc. specializes in the research, development, and commercialization of products centered around nicotinamide riboside (NR), primarily under its 'Niagen' brand. The company operates in the health and wellness sector, particularly targeting the longevity and cellular health markets. Revenue is generated through the sale of these science-backed nutritional supplements to consumers, leveraging its proprietary ingredient and ongoing scientific validation efforts to differentiate its offerings in a competitive market.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Niagen Bioscience Inc (NAGE)?
As of June 15, 2026, Niagen Bioscience Inc has a DVR Score of 5.7 out of 10, placing it in the "Proceed with Caution" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Niagen Bioscience Inc?
Niagen Bioscience Inc's market capitalization is approximately $274.8M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Niagen Bioscience Inc use?
NAGE is the ticker symbol for Niagen Bioscience Inc. The company trades on the NCM.
What is the risk level for NAGE stock?
Our analysis rates Niagen Bioscience Inc's overall risk as Moderate-Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of NAGE?
Niagen Bioscience Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Niagen Bioscience Inc's revenue growing?
Niagen Bioscience Inc has reported revenue growth of 20.8%. The company is showing strong top-line momentum.
Is NAGE stock profitable?
Niagen Bioscience Inc has a profit margin of 14.3%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the NAGE DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Niagen Bioscience Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 15, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for NAGE (Niagen Bioscience Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.