MOH Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Molina Healthcare Inc
Healthcare • Healthcare Plans
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About MOH Stock
We analyzed Molina Healthcare Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran MOH through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
MOH Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The ongoing investigation by Kahn Swick & Foti, combined with persistent rising medical loss ratios and disappointing FY26 EPS guidance, could lead to significant legal costs, fines, and a further erosion of investor confidence, potentially driving the stock price below current analyst targets.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
Medium
Market
High
Competitive
High
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Investigation initiated by Kahn Swick & Foti (approx. April 8-9, 2026).
- ⚠
FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $5.00, viewed as disappointing.
- ⚠
Stock down 56% over the past year amid cost pressures.
- ⚠
Declining net margins in 2025 (specifics unavailable).
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Negative developments or financial penalties from the Kahn Swick & Foti investigation
- 📅
Worse-than-expected Q1 2026 earnings or further negative guidance
- 📅
Continued rise in medical loss ratios impacting profitability
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if the Kahn Swick & Foti investigation reveals material misconduct or leads to substantial penalties.
- 🚪
Sell if Q1 2026 earnings show further deterioration in medical loss ratios or future guidance is cut.
- 🚪
Exit if the stock price breaks significantly below $130, signaling a breakdown of current support.
Unlock MOH Risk Analysis & Red Flags
Create a free account to see the full analysis
What Does Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Do?
Market Cap
$7.30B
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Healthcare Plans
Employees
18,000
Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces in the United States. It operates in four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
Visit Molina Healthcare Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
Molina Healthcare operates in a mature, highly regulated market offering incremental growth through government-sponsored health plans. Its business model lacks the disruptive innovation or market expansion potential necessary for 10x growth within 3-5 years. Current challenges, including an investigation, disappointing guidance, and margin pressures, make it an unsuitable candidate for high-risk, high-reward investment strategies aiming for exponential returns.
Is MOH Stock Undervalued?
Unlock the full AI analysis for MOH
Get the complete DVR score, risk analysis, and more
Unlock the full report
Create a free account to see the DVR score, risk flags, and AI analysis.
MOH Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$153.65
Bull Case
$170.00
Bear Case
$125.00
Valuation Basis
12-month target based on analyst median price target of $153.65, which implies ~30.7x forward P/E on reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.00.
Entry Strategy
Given current headwinds and an ongoing investigation, a 'wait and see' approach is advised. No immediate attractive entry points for 10x growth potential.
Exit Strategy
For existing holders, consider profit-taking if the stock approaches the higher analyst price targets (e.g., $170) or if negative news regarding the investigation or cost trends emerges. Set a stop-loss order below recent support levels, potentially around $130-$135.
Portfolio Allocation
0% for aggressive '10x growth' portfolios. For a moderate, stable income/growth portfolio, perhaps less than 1% given current risks.
Price Targets & Strategy
Upgrade to Premium for price targets and entry/exit strategies
Is MOH Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.89
Profitability
Return on Equity
11.02%
Revenue Growth
7.10%
EPS
$8.93
Does MOH Have a Competitive Moat?
Sign in to unlockMoat Rating
🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Stable to Eroding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
Molina's moat persists due to the significant scale required for cost efficiency in government programs and the specialized expertise needed to navigate complex state and federal regulations. However, this moat is continuously challenged by rising medical costs, policy changes, and intense competition.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Inability to control rising medical costs and medical loss ratios.
- •Adverse changes in government regulations or reimbursement rates (e.g., CMS rate cuts).
- •Loss of significant state contracts due to competitive bidding or performance issues.
MOH Competitive Moat Analysis
Sign up to see competitive advantages
MOH Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral to Bearish, reflecting the recent stock decline and news of the investigation.
Institutional Sentiment
Negative, evidenced by recent analyst downgrades (Wells Fargo) and price target cuts (Mizuho, Bernstein), leading to a consensus 'Hold' rating.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Directors Dale B. Wolf, Richard M. Schapiro, and Richard C. Zoretic were granted 405 shares each on April 1-2, 2026, as part of their 2025 Equity Incentive Plan (quarterly $55,000 value). No open market purchases or sales by key executives (CEO/CFO) were reported.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual put/call ratio or institutional positioning data provided.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
2026-04-22
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
The stock has recently experienced significant sell-offs following Q4 2025 results and disappointing guidance, indicating sensitivity to cost trends and profitability outlooks.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
UNH
Market Share Trend
Stable, but facing sector-wide pressures from medical costs and inflation. No specific market share shifts were reported.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at an implied forward P/E of ~30.7x (based on median PT and FY26 EPS), which may be a premium compared to some peers in the mature, regulated managed care sector, especially considering current growth and margin pressures. Specific peer valuation ratios are unavailable.
Competitive Advantages
- •Efficient scale in government-sponsored healthcare programs
- •Strong relationships with state Medicaid agencies
- •Expertise in navigating complex regulatory environments
Market Intelligence
Get sentiment, earnings intel, and peer analysis with Premium
What Could Drive MOH Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q1 2026 Earnings Report (April 22, 2026)
- •Outcome/clarification of Kahn Swick & Foti investigation probe
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Potential easing of medical cost trends and improved Medicaid margins
- •Resolution of Florida CMS contract issues
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Positive impact from 2027 Medicare Advantage rate adjustments
- •Significant new state contract wins in government-sponsored programs
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
Upgrade to Premium to see catalysts
What's the Bull Case for MOH?
- ✓
Significant and sustained improvement in medical loss ratios and net margins.
- ✓
A clear, favorable resolution to the Kahn Swick & Foti investigation.
- ✓
Demonstrated ability to gain substantial new market share or expand into less regulated, higher-growth segments.
Bull Case Analysis
See what could go right with Premium
Competing with MOH
See how Molina Healthcare Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Molina Healthcare Inc MOH | $7.3B | 0.1 | 15.9 | $40.6B | 0.0% | 7.1% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $403.8B | 0.1 | 171.8 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | — | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $150.6B | 0.2 | 19.4 | $62.6B | 12.4% | -1.6% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $276.2B | 0.3 | 22.9 | $113.7B | 2.7% | 1181.0% | Compare → |
📊 Explore More Stock Analysis
Get comprehensive Deep Value Reports for thousands of stocks. Research risk, financial health, and investment potential with our AI-powered analysis.
How Molina Healthcare Inc Makes Money
Molina Healthcare Inc. operates as a managed care organization primarily serving individuals and families who receive healthcare through government-sponsored programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and the state health insurance marketplaces. The company earns revenue by receiving fixed monthly premiums from state and federal governments for each enrolled member. It then manages and pays for the medical services these members receive, with its profitability depending on its ability to effectively manage healthcare costs while providing quality care to its diverse member base.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)?
As of April 9, 2026, Molina Healthcare Inc has a DVR Score of 0.1 out of 10, placing it in the "Distressed" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Molina Healthcare Inc?
Molina Healthcare Inc's market capitalization is approximately $7.3B. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Healthcare Plans industry.
What ticker symbol does Molina Healthcare Inc use?
MOH is the ticker symbol for Molina Healthcare Inc. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for MOH stock?
Our analysis rates Molina Healthcare Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of MOH?
Molina Healthcare Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.9. This is in line with broader market averages.
Is Molina Healthcare Inc's revenue growing?
Molina Healthcare Inc has reported revenue growth of 7.1%. The company is growing at a moderate pace.
Is MOH stock profitable?
Molina Healthcare Inc has a profit margin of 0.0%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the MOH DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Molina Healthcare Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on April 9, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for MOH (Molina Healthcare Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.