KROS Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Keros Therapeutics Inc
Healthcare • Biotechnology
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About KROS Stock
We analyzed Keros Therapeutics Inc using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran KROS through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Aggressive. Here's what we found.
KROS Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is a clinical trial failure for KER-050 or KER-012. Given Keros's negligible revenue ($0.37M in Q1 2026) and significant net loss ($23.7M in Q1 2026), a setback for a lead asset would severely compromise its ability to fund operations into H1 2028 and necessitate highly dilutive financing, potentially wiping out a substantial portion of shareholder value.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Aggressive
Financial
High
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
High
Regulatory
High
Red Flags
- ⚠
Q1 2026 revenue fell by 99.8% YoY, indicating extreme reliance on one-time licensing deals without recurring product revenue.
- ⚠
Swing from $148.5M net income to a $23.7M net loss in Q1 2026, highlighting significant cash burn without profitability.
- ⚠
Valuation implies the market currently assigns negative value to the entire pipeline given the stock trades below its cash per share ($10.77 vs. ~$14.44/share cash).
- ⚠
Previous large share buyback (Q4 2025) depleted cash reserves for a company with no product revenue and a high burn rate.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Negative or inconclusive Phase 2/3 data for KER-050 (est. H2 2026): Could lead to a stock price decline exceeding 50% and raise concerns about the entire pipeline.
- 📅
Faster than expected cash burn, reducing runway below H1 2028 without new funding (ongoing monitoring): Could force dilutive capital raises in a weak market, eroding shareholder value.
- 📅
Increased competitive pressure from new therapies for anemia in myelofibrosis, impacting market share projections for KER-050/KER-012 (ongoing): Could reduce peak sales estimates and future profitability.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if KER-050 Phase 2/3 trial data is negative or fails to meet primary endpoints (could trigger >50% decline).
- 🚪
Sell if the company's projected cash runway shortens to less than 12 months without clear non-dilutive funding or revenue streams.
- 🚪
Exit if the stock trades consistently below $8.00 (implied support from technical levels or cash burn acceleration).
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What Does Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) Do?
Market Cap
$207.81M
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
148
Keros Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes novel therapeutics for patients with disorders that are linked to dysfunctional signaling of the transforming growth factor-beta family of proteins in the United States. The company's lead product candidate is KER-050, which is being developed for the treatment of low blood cell counts, or cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes, as well as in patients with myelofibrosis. It also develops KER-012, which is in Phase II clinical trial to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension and cardiovascular disorders; and KER-065 that is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment neuromuscular diseases. The company has collaboration and license agreement with Hansoh (Shanghai) Healthtech Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize elritercept and licensed products containing elritercept. Keros Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Visit Keros Therapeutics Inc WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Keros's lead asset, KER-050, delivers positive Phase 2/3 data in anemia in myelodysplastic syndromes (est. H2 2026) and Takeda's KER-012 progresses successfully into Phase 3, then the company's valuation could re-rate significantly above its current cash-per-share price, potentially reaching 2-3x the current stock price within 12-18 months. This is bullish because the market currently assigns a negative value to the pipeline, implying significant upside if clinical success is achieved and market sentiment improves.
Is KROS Stock Undervalued?
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KROS Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$20.40
Bull Case
$35.00
Bear Case
$5.00
Valuation Basis
Based on average analyst consensus target of $20.40, reflecting an implied positive valuation of pipeline assets above current cash per share, contingent on positive clinical milestones.
Entry Strategy
Dollar-cost average between $9-$12, especially on dips below cash per share (~$14.44/share as of Q1 2026), leveraging its discount to cash for potential upside on positive news.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $20.40 (analyst target), consider full exit if KER-050 Phase 2/3 data is negative or cash runway significantly shortens. Stop loss at $7.50.
Portfolio Allocation
3-5% for aggressive risk tolerance, due to high clinical and financial risk but significant upside potential.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is KROS Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
2.39
Forward P/E
-3.49
EV/EBITDA
-2.51
PEG Ratio
-13.88
Price/Book
1.34
Price/Sales
6.77
Profitability
Gross Margin
100.00%
Operating Margin
-332.55%
Net Margin
-256.60%
Return on Equity
-17.04%
Revenue Growth
-84.55%
EPS
$-3.01
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
15.45
Quick Ratio
15.22
Debt/Equity
0.06
Cash Flow
EBITDA
-$25.47M
Other
Beta (Volatility)
0.99
Does KROS Have a Competitive Moat?
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🛡️ Narrow
Moat Trend
Expanding
Moat Sources
2 Identified
The moat depends heavily on the successful clinical development and subsequent patent protection of its pipeline assets. Positive trial results and FDA approval would strengthen its IP moat, making it difficult for competitors to replicate the specific compounds and their therapeutic benefits within their patent lifetimes.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Clinical trial failures (e.g., KER-050 data miss) that undermine the efficacy of its proprietary compounds.
- •Emergence of superior or more affordable therapies from competitors that target the same indications or pathways.
- •Patent challenges or expiry that erode protection for key drug candidates.
KROS Competitive Moat Analysis
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KROS Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, likely mixed with retail investors balancing long-term pipeline potential against short-term financial distress.
Institutional Sentiment
Neutral, with the previous analyst shift to 'Hold' and estimate cuts, despite an average target price suggesting upside. Nantahala Capital maintains a significant stake (6.90%).
Insider Activity (Form 4)
No specific Form 4 insider buys/sells visible in the provided research, though Nantahala Capital Management holds a 6.90% stake as of March 31, 2026.
Options Flow
Normal options activity (no specific unusual activity visible in the provided research).
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated August 5, 2026
Surprise Probability
High (for EPS miss, given Q1 2026 performance and consensus expectations for continued losses; potential for revenue beat if small milestone payment occurs).
Historical Earnings Pattern
Tends to be highly volatile around clinical trial data readouts and Q1 2026 showed a negative reaction to significant revenue/EPS misses.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), known for Reblozyl in MDS-associated anemia; while not a direct competitor in mechanism, it represents a leader in the broader therapeutic area Keros is targeting.
Market Share Trend
Not applicable yet as Keros is pre-commercial; potential to gain significant share in niche hematology markets if trials succeed.
Valuation vs Peers
Trading at a P/S of 6.6x, above a 4.0x peer average for clinical-stage biotechs, but below the 10.6x U.S. biotech industry average. Given minimal current revenue, this P/S is high, but the stock trades below its cash per share.
Competitive Advantages
- •Differentiated mechanism of action via TGF-beta pathway modulation, potentially offering superior efficacy or safety profiles.
- •Validated platform through the Takeda licensing deal for elritercept (KER-012), now entering Phase 3.
- •Deep pipeline targeting multiple unmet medical needs across various indications beyond initial lead assets.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive KROS Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •KER-050 Phase 2/3 data readout (anemia in myelodysplastic syndromes, est. H2 2026): Positive results could significantly re-rate valuation, potentially adding $500M+ to market cap.
- •Q2 2026 earnings report (estimated August 5, 2026): Any unexpected positive guidance or reduction in cash burn could temper recent negative sentiment.
- •Initiation of Takeda's Phase 3 trial for elritercept (KER-012) in anemia in myelofibrosis (announced May 14, 2026): Confirms partner commitment and de-risks the asset, potentially triggering a milestone payment.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •KER-050 Phase 3 initiation (est. late 2026 / early 2027): If Phase 2/3 is positive, commencing Phase 3 would further de-risk the asset and move closer to commercialization.
- •Additional pipeline updates for KER-047 in pulmonary hypertension (PH) or other indications (e.g., IBS-C, PAH) (est. 2027): Positive data could expand TAM and indicate broader platform utility.
- •Potential new strategic partnerships or licensing deals for pipeline assets (est. 2027): Could provide non-dilutive capital and further validate the platform, similar to the Takeda deal.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Commercial launch of KER-050 in myelodysplastic syndromes (est. 2028-2029): If approved, could generate peak annual revenues exceeding $500M, fundamentally transforming Keros's financial profile.
- •Commercial launch of KER-012 by Takeda (est. 2029-2030): Would trigger significant royalty payments and milestone payments to Keros, providing a steady revenue stream without commercialization costs.
- •Expansion of KER-050 or KER-012 to additional indications (est. 2030+): Broadening market reach and significantly increasing total addressable market and peak sales potential.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for KROS?
- ✓
Watch KER-050 Phase 2/3 data readout (efficacy, safety, statistical significance) for direct impact on valuation.
- ✓
Watch quarterly cash burn and cash runway projections (any shortening without new funding is a negative sign).
- ✓
Monitor Takeda's progress with KER-012, specifically Phase 3 trial initiation and any milestone payments.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with KROS
See how Keros Therapeutics Inc compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keros Therapeutics Inc KROS | $207.8M | 6.0 | 2.4 | $33.2M | -256.6% | -84.5% | |
AbbVie Inc ABBV | $381.1B | 0.1 | 104.8 | $15.0B | 5.8% | 9.5% | Compare → |
Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $557.1B | 1.0 | 26.5 | — | 21.8% | 7.9% | Compare → |
Eli Lilly and Co LLY | $965.0B | 0.5 | 52.6 | — | — | — | Compare → |
Pfizer Inc PFE | $146.4B | 4.0 | 19.5 | $62.6B | 11.8% | 1.4% | Compare → |
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH | $365.5B | 0.3 | 30.3 | $447.6B | 2.7% | 9.7% | Compare → |
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How Keros Therapeutics Inc Makes Money
Keros Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel treatments for patients with hematologic and rare diseases. It operates by developing proprietary small molecule and protein therapeutics that modulate the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-ß) superfamily of proteins. The company aims to generate revenue through licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical partners for its drug candidates (e.g., Takeda for KER-012) and, ultimately, through direct sales of its own approved products (e.g., KER-050). Its current financial model is heavily reliant on capital raises and non-recurring licensing payments to fund extensive research and development.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
As of June 5, 2026, Keros Therapeutics Inc has a DVR Score of 6.0 out of 10, placing it in the "Solid Pick" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Keros Therapeutics Inc?
Keros Therapeutics Inc's market capitalization is approximately $207.8M. The company operates in the Healthcare sector within the Biotechnology industry.
What ticker symbol does Keros Therapeutics Inc use?
KROS is the ticker symbol for Keros Therapeutics Inc. The company trades on the NGM.
What is the risk level for KROS stock?
Our analysis rates Keros Therapeutics Inc's overall risk as Aggressive. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of KROS?
Keros Therapeutics Inc currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 2.4. This is below the market average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued or facing headwinds.
Is Keros Therapeutics Inc's revenue growing?
Keros Therapeutics Inc has reported revenue growth of -84.5%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is KROS stock profitable?
Keros Therapeutics Inc has a profit margin of -256.6%. The company is currently unprofitable.
How often is the KROS DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Keros Therapeutics Inc is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 5, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for KROS (Keros Therapeutics Inc) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.