JCI Stock Risk & Deep Value Analysis
Johnson Controls International PLC
Industrials • Building Products & Equipment
DVR Score
out of 10
What You Need to Know About JCI Stock
We analyzed Johnson Controls International PLC using our deep value framework. Sign in to see our full verdict and DVR Score.
We ran JCI through our deep value framework — analyzing financial health, distress signals, competitive moat, and risk factors. Our risk assessment: Moderate. Here's what we found.
JCI Risk Analysis & Red Flags
What Could Go Wrong
A significant slowdown in global commercial construction or industrial capital expenditure could directly impact JCI's core building solutions and HVAC segments. Given its reliance on robust new orders (30% organic growth in Q2 FY26), a sustained downturn could reduce its substantial backlog and significantly compress its revenue growth, potentially leading to a 10-15% revenue decline over a year if economic conditions deteriorate.
Risk Matrix
Overall
Moderate
Financial
Low
Market
Medium
Competitive
Medium
Execution
Medium
Regulatory
Low
Red Flags
- ⚠
Insider sale by Todd Grabowski of 4,274 shares on May 14, 2026, while minor, indicates some executive divestment despite positive company news.
- ⚠
PEG ratio of 4.06x suggests that JCI's growth, while positive, is currently considered relatively expensive by some valuation metrics, limiting multiple expansion potential without accelerated growth.
- ⚠
The current $90.14 billion market capitalization presents a fundamental barrier to achieving a 10x return within a 3-5 year timeframe for a mature industrial company.
Upcoming Risk Events
- 📅
Q3 FY2026 Earnings Miss (estimated early August 2026): Failure to meet guidance on organic growth or profitability, especially within the Building Solutions segment, could trigger a stock sell-off.
- 📅
Increased Competition in Data Center Cooling (Ongoing - FY2027): Aggressive moves by competitors (e.g., Vertiv, Schneider Electric) could limit JCI's market share gains from the Alloy acquisition, impacting its growth aspirations in this key segment.
When to Reconsider
- 🚪
Exit if organic order growth falls below 5% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, indicating a fundamental slowdown in demand.
- 🚪
Sell if adjusted EPS growth turns negative year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, signaling deteriorating profitability.
- 🚪
If the stock price drops below $135 with significant trading volume, indicating a breakdown of key support levels.
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What Does Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI) Do?
Market Cap
$89.53B
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Building Products & Equipment
Employees
87,000
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Building Solutions North America, Building Solutions EMEA/LA, Building Solutions Asia Pacific, and Global Products. The company designs, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and fire protection and security products. It also provides energy efficiency solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven smart building solutions. In addition, the company offers access control software and software services. It sells its products and services to commercial, institutional, industrial, data center, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorporated in 1885 and is based in Cork, Ireland.
Visit Johnson Controls International PLC WebsiteInvestment Thesis
If Johnson Controls successfully accelerates its market penetration in high-growth data center thermal management through the Alloy acquisition and expands its OpenBlue digital solutions platform, then its organic revenue growth could sustain mid-to-high single digits, potentially leading to a 25-30% valuation increase over the next 12-18 months as the market re-rates its exposure to these faster-growing segments. This is bullish because the market currently values JCI as a traditional industrial, not fully appreciating its strategic pivot.
Is JCI Stock Undervalued?
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JCI Price Targets & Strategy
12-Month Target
$155.00
Bull Case
$170.00
Bear Case
$130.00
Valuation Basis
Based on 28x forward P/E applied to estimated FY2026 adjusted EPS of $5.54.
Entry Strategy
Consider dollar-cost averaging in the $140-$145 range, which provides a slight discount to current price and potential technical support.
Exit Strategy
Take 50% profit at $165, re-evaluate remaining position at $170+. Set a stop-loss at $135 to protect against significant downside.
Portfolio Allocation
2% for moderate risk tolerance given its large-cap stability but limited 10x upside.
Price Targets & Strategy
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Is JCI Financially Healthy?
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.36
Forward P/E
25.19
EV/EBITDA
25.50
PEG Ratio
4.06
Price/Book
6.50
Price/Sales
3.60
Profitability
Gross Margin
43.49%
Operating Margin
13.56%
Net Margin
17.19%
Return on Equity
25.46%
Revenue Growth
-3.39%
EPS
$5.59
Balance Sheet
Current Ratio
0.93
Quick Ratio
0.76
Debt/Equity
0.76
Total Debt
$8.00B
Cash & Equivalents
$11.18B
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
$1.32B
Free Cash Flow
-$184.00M
EBITDA
$3.15B
Other
Beta (Volatility)
1.32
Dividend Yield
1.11%
Does JCI Have a Competitive Moat?
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Moat Trend
Stable to Expanding
Moat Sources
4 Identified
JCI's moat is durable due to its vast installed base of integrated building systems, high switching costs for customers, and an extensive global service network that few competitors can fully replicate. The long sales cycles and critical nature of its products further enhance customer lock-in.
Moat Erosion Risks
- •Rapid technological disruption from agile startups in IoT and AI that could bypass traditional integrated solutions or offer more cost-effective alternatives.
- •Intensified price competition in more commoditized HVAC and security product segments, potentially eroding its gross margins over time.
JCI Competitive Moat Analysis
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JCI Market Intelligence
Sentiment & Insider Activity
Social Sentiment
Neutral, as JCI is a large, established industrial company less prone to significant retail investor hype or sentiment swings.
Institutional Sentiment
Positive, with analyst consensus around 'Moderate Buy'/'Buy' and a mean price target of $153.35, indicating confidence in operational performance but limited aggressive upside.
Insider Activity (Form 4)
Todd Grabowski disclosed a Form 144 sale of 4,274 shares on May 14, 2026, with reported proceeds of $621,870.85.
Options Flow
Normal options activity; no specific unusual put/call ratio or institutional positioning signals provided in the research.
Earnings Intelligence
Next Earnings
Estimated early August 2026 (Q3 FY2026)
Surprise Probability
Medium
Historical Earnings Pattern
JCI's stock typically reacts positively to strong operational beats and upward revisions to guidance, as observed with its Q2 FY26 results.
Key Metrics to Watch
Competitive Position
Top Competitor
Trane Technologies PLC (TT)
Market Share Trend
Stable overall, with strategic efforts to gain market share in specific high-growth niches like data center thermal management and smart building solutions.
Valuation vs Peers
JCI's P/E of 25.95x is below the industry average of 30.16x, suggesting it trades at a slight discount on an earnings basis. However, its P/B of 6.5x is slightly above the industry 6.39x, and its PEG of 4.06x indicates growth is priced in relative to its pace.
Competitive Advantages
- •Extensive global service network and large installed base creating high switching costs.
- •Comprehensive portfolio across HVAC, fire, security, and building management systems.
- •Strong brand recognition and long-standing customer relationships in critical infrastructure.
Market Intelligence
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What Could Drive JCI Stock Higher?
Near-Term (0-6 months)
- •Q3 FY2026 Earnings (estimated early August 2026): Key focus on sustained organic order growth (30% in Q2) and revenue contribution from data center solutions. Confirmation of continued strong FY2026 guidance is critical.
- •Alloy Enterprises Integration Update (Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call): Details on accelerating high-performance cooling solutions for data centers and initial revenue contributions to validate strategic acquisition benefits.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- •Expansion of Data Center Cooling Pipeline (FY2027): Announcing new major contracts or partnerships for specialized thermal management solutions, indicating successful cross-selling and integration of Alloy's capabilities, potentially adding $100M+ in annual revenue.
- •OpenBlue Platform Adoption & Strategic Wins (FY2027): Significant customer wins or adoption rates for its OpenBlue digital platform, demonstrating clear market share gains in integrated building management solutions and driving recurring revenue growth.
Long-Term (18+ months)
- •Global Decarbonization & Energy Efficiency Mandates (2028-2029): Leveraging sustainability expertise and energy efficiency solutions to capture substantial market share as global regulations tighten, potentially adding over $1 billion to annual revenue by 2029.
- •AI-Powered Building Automation Leadership (2028-2029): Establishing market leadership in AI/ML-driven predictive maintenance and optimized building performance, commanding premium pricing and driving significant margin expansion across its service portfolio.
Catalysts & Growth Drivers
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What's the Bull Case for JCI?
- ✓
Monitor quarterly organic order growth, specifically for the Building Solutions segment; sustained growth above 10% year-over-year would strongly signal successful strategic execution.
- ✓
Track the revenue contribution from data center thermal management solutions; exceeding $500 million annually (from a very low base) would validate the successful integration and scaling of the Alloy acquisition.
Bull Case Analysis
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Competing with JCI
See how Johnson Controls International PLC compares to related companies
| Company | Market Cap | DVR Score | P/E | Revenue | Profit Margin | Rev Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Johnson Controls International PLC JCI | $89.5B | 3.7 | 25.4 | $24.4B | 17.2% | -3.4% | |
Caterpillar Inc CAT | $400.8B | 0.1 | 42.5 | $70.8B | 13.3% | 11.8% | Compare → |
General Electric Co GE | $299.7B | 0.5 | 34.7 | $41.1B | 17.9% | 21.8% | Compare → |
Honeywell International Inc HON | $139.6B | 1.9 | 30.9 | — | 11.4% | 3.6% | Compare → |
Trane Technologies PLC TT | $99.8B | 6.8 | 34.4 | $19.1B | 13.4% | 6.4% | Compare → |
United Parcel Service Inc UPS | $91.9B | 0.1 | 17.5 | $89.5B | 5.9% | -2.9% | Compare → |
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How Johnson Controls International PLC Makes Money
Johnson Controls International designs, produces, installs, and services heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, fire safety equipment, security solutions, and integrated building management systems globally. It helps customers in commercial, industrial, and residential sectors optimize energy efficiency, occupant comfort, and safety. The company generates revenue from equipment sales, installation services, and recurring revenue streams from maintenance contracts and software subscriptions for its smart building platforms like OpenBlue.
Read Full Business Model BreakdownFAQ
What is the DVR Score for Johnson Controls International PLC (JCI)?
As of June 10, 2026, Johnson Controls International PLC has a DVR Score of 3.7 out of 10, placing it in the "Risk Trap" category. This score is generated by our AI-powered deep value analysis framework that evaluates growth potential, financial health, competitive moat, and risk factors.
What is the market capitalization of Johnson Controls International PLC?
Johnson Controls International PLC's market capitalization is approximately $89.5B. The company operates in the Industrials sector within the Building Products & Equipment industry.
What ticker symbol does Johnson Controls International PLC use?
JCI is the ticker symbol for Johnson Controls International PLC. The company trades on the NYQ.
What is the risk level for JCI stock?
Our analysis rates Johnson Controls International PLC's overall risk as Moderate. This assessment considers execution risk, market risk, financial risk, competitive risk, and regulatory risk. For a full breakdown, see the risk analysis section above.
What is the P/E ratio of JCI?
Johnson Controls International PLC currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.4. This is in line with broader market averages.
Does Johnson Controls International PLC pay a dividend?
Yes, Johnson Controls International PLC pays a dividend with a current yield of approximately 1.11%.
Is Johnson Controls International PLC's revenue growing?
Johnson Controls International PLC has reported revenue growth of -3.4%. Revenue has been declining, which warrants closer examination.
Is JCI stock profitable?
Johnson Controls International PLC has a profit margin of 17.2%. The company is profitable but margins are modest.
How often is the JCI DVR analysis updated?
Our AI-powered analysis of Johnson Controls International PLC is refreshed regularly to incorporate the latest financial data, market conditions, and news. The most recent update was on June 10, 2026.
Important Disclaimer – Not Financial Advice
Deep Value Reports is an independent research platform for educational and informational purposes only. We are not financial advisors, investment advisors, or licensed professionals. The analysis, scores, and information provided on this page for JCI (Johnson Controls International PLC) should not be construed as personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to provide investment advisory services.
All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.